G L's comment on TOPGLOV. All Comments

G L
7 Like · Reply
Where is their evidence that testing is on a downtrend? How is that possible when more than 600,000 cases have been detected each day, triple from September. With such a high number of cases, it is ridiculous to suggest mass testing has declined. Simple observation points to the contrary. JP Morgan must back their claim with solid evidence.

Secondly, since when does glove demand depend on testing? There are numerous other applications in battling covid that require gloves. There are strong evidence that glove shortage will extend to 2022. How can JP Morgan issue a report saying otherwise without providing strong evidence of their own? It is clear that incoming glove supply will come far short of meeting glove demand in the next 2 years. Not providing a good reason for stating otherwise is very irresponsible.

Thirdly, JP Morgan using palm oil companies as comparison is extremely irresponsible and a weak evidence. Palm Oil supply cannot be controlled due to weather and the sheer number of palm oil companies making it hard to plan for supply. What the analysts had offered is grossly inaccurate and unacceptable. They clearly have not done due diligence.

Lastly, Topglove has already guided ASP to rise 30% next quarter. The pricing power is very much in the hands of glove manufacturers. JP Morgan suggested glove prices has peaked in September. This is grossly inaccurate and shows it has been disregarding market research. In fact, Topglove has recorded far higher ASP in the two months following September, and is going to hike it by a further 30% in the next quarter. The reality is far too different from JP Morgan's poorly concluded estimates. It is obvious gloves are much needed in much higher quantities than before.

All these points to poor analysis that is not done in good faith, without due diligence. Action should be taken to maintain the integrity of our capital markets to prevent manipulation.
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Ron Ng
faster take loan then buy gloves, all in lo
Like · 3 years · translate
Log Searcher
Must read carefully the article and supportive evidences. Don't just read the News Headline.
Like · 3 years · translate
Darrel Tian
2022 forecast gloves demand more than 510b pcs compare to 350b pcs in 2020. Orders for 2021F 450b already achieved which force all gloves manufacturers to expand production capacity to the max till raw mtls not able to cope up. JPMorgan you are a joke
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1 Like · 3 years · translate
NewB
All in pleasseeee.. Sell hse sell car. Hooooot 9e topglove.
Like · 3 years · translate
NewB
JPMorgan happily sell their share, overpriced by rm3++
Like · 3 years · translate
Nicholas Bee
morgem holding topg in thier portfolio 9.8% . What them analytics?
2 Like · 3 years · translate
Ron Ng
if believe so much in gloves, thinking is value investing, can just Hoot 9e, all in nobody can stop u.
Like · 3 years · translate
Benjamin Zhang
G L ,
The stock market is already thinking of 2022 and beyond. JPM believes all super normal profits next year have been priced in with share price surging from RM5 to RM29. The market is worried that ASP will fall sooner than expected when Covid 19 cases start reducing. So, it is reacting ahead of this potential event of reducing Covid 19 cases.

But I think Mr. Market is thinking too far ahead and maybe too pessimistic. In 2021, TG will be able to churn out a few more record-breaking QR while giving out generous dividends, starting from now. Historical PE now is about 15, which will eventually become single digit if it earns 1 bil every quarter. Quoting MIDF, " TG is trading at a PER of 6.5x FY21E earnings and 15.6x FY22F earnings, which are much lower than its 10-year historical mean of 25.5x PER."

I believe in reversion to mean and TG should return to 25x PE in future. In the meantime, just enjoy the dividends.
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