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imo - it is positive led by it's retail ops, but dragged by unfavourable myr impacting imported products/margins. 2nd half of FY19 will be interesting as usd/myr rates is at the range of 4.05 to 4.20 between Jun'18 and ctd. 2 more retail stores to be opened, all else being equals, usd/myr moving towards lower rates, we should see further margins improvement. good to monitor the rates. you can overlap cck price with usd/myr rates as you analyze it's earnings report.
hi eng hock, the prospect looks good for Cck from it's expansion plans, New markets like Australia is starting to generate revenue while Indonesia and Malaysia market continues to be the top line performance. the earnings is slowly absorbing the effect of usd/myr exchange rates which was lower in 2018 (higher margins for imported products) compared to now. hence, the difference btw performance of first half 2018 and first half 2019.
the profitability or margins will gradually improves as we move towards second half of fy19; unless usd/myr rates continues to go up beyond 4.20 and stayed high for months/years. the inventory turnover is also improving with smaller days of inventory. if you intend to keep for long, you will need to exercise zero cost averaging when opportunity arises and keep your average btw 0.495 and 0.45 cents. the high side depends on it's profitability. at $20M fcf, the fair value would be 0.71 cents.
you are welcome, eng hock. do follow your own plans. you can use trading view instead of excel. much easier. go to trading view.com/chart. select cck chart and then you can add/compare with usdmyr rates. split the chart into two panes. that will give you an overview and forward looking assessment on it's profitability. hope it helps.