This year’s Asean Regional Forum in Manila promises to be a special one not only because 2017 marks the 50th year of the founding of the association but also because the gathering is taking place at a time when the regional geopolitical landscape has seen some shifts.

The ARF, to be held from Aug 5 to 8, will be attended by the 10 member countries as well as Australia, China, India, Japan, Russia, North and South Korea and the US. In fact, the US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson will be making his maiden appearance at the Asean gathering.

Given US President Donald Trump’s nationalist policies, Asean members will be keen to hear from Tillerson what role the superpower foresees for itself in the region, bearing in mind China’s rising influence and territorial claims in the South China Sea. Then there is North Korea’s show of might, with the last test missile fired just a week before the meeting.

(It also remains to be seen whether North Korea will fire more missiles ahead of the Liberation Holiday on Aug 15.)

According to a US Department of State statement on Tillerson’s Southeast Asian visit, in Manila, he is expected to discuss with his counterparts a range of issues, including “the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, maritime security, and counterterrorism”.

“Because of the inward-looking policy by the US in the Trump era, and Asean’s strong belief in globalisation, one question will be how you reconcile ‘America First’ versus Asean and China’s OBOR (One Belt One Road) policy, which is the reverse of the anti-globalisation position of the US,” says Lee Heng Guie, economist and executive director at Socio-economic Research Centre, the research arm of The Associated Chinese Chambers of Commerce and Industry Malaysia. He also hopes for some constructive outcome from the forum with regards to global trade.

On geopolitics, he highlights Asean’s non-interventionist policy among member states amid increasing tensions globally and in the region.

“It will be interesting to see whether Asean will make a stand on geopolitical issues, namely US-Russia relations, North Korea and the claims in South China Sea,” Lee says, adding that there is a possibility of a communique on the territorial claims in the South China Sea, which involve China, Brunei, Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia.

Already, foreign media have reported sighting a draft communique which reflects the Philippines’ “soft landing” approach on the issue compared to sterner tones taken in previous communiques. The Philippines is the Asean chairman this year.

The South China Morning Post reported that Asean foreign ministers will likely hold back from criticising China’s aggressive actions in the South China Sea and instead endorse a code of conduct to prevent fighting in the disputed waters.

After Manila, Tillerson will be stopping over in Bangkok before arriving in Kuala Lumpur on Tuesday evening to meet with Malaysian officials. Note that the visit follows the US Department of Justice’s civil actions to recover assets acquired using monies allegedly misappropriated from sovereign wealth fund 1Malaysia Development Bhd.

However, the market will be focused on whether 1MDB is able to pay a sum of RM2.58 billion originally due to Abu Dhabi’s International Petroleum Investment Company PJSC (IPIC) on July 31 as the five business days “to remedy the non-payment” come to an end on Monday.

On the economic front, June’s Industrial Production Index and manufacturing sales will be released on Thursday. In May, the IPI rose 4.6% from a year ago compared with 4.2% in April. Economists expect the IPI to rise 4.2% in June.

Meanwhile, manufacturing sales rose 19.5% year on year in May and 15.6% the month before.

Labour statistics are also due on Thursday from the Department of Statistics. Unemployment stood at 3.4% in May.

According to Bloomberg data, companies announcing their earnings include Malaysia Building Society Bhd, Media Prima Bhd and RCE Capital Bhd.

The share prices of providers of personal financing MBSB and RCE have done well, rising 62.7% and 134% over the past year.

For 1QFY2017, MBSB posted earnings per share of 1.75 sen, which made up 31.25% of analysts’ estimate of 5.6 sen for the full year.

RCE will be reporting its results for its first quarter to June 31, 2017.

In Singapore, the city state will celebrate its 52nd year of independence on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Indonesia will be announcing its 2Q GDP numbers.

It will be a busy week for China in terms of economic data releases starting with foreign reserves on Monday, followed by July trade data, consumer inflation numbers and July monetary and loans data to end the week.

In the US, the focus will be on inflation as July’s Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index data will be out on Thursday and Friday respectively.

Also, a two-day gathering of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and non-Opec members on Monday and Tuesday in Abu Dhabi — to discuss the compliance with the agreement to cap output — will be highly watched.