The week ahead: Quiet Christmas week with few data releases

TheEdge Mon, Dec 23, 2019 02:00pm - 4 years View Original


It is going to be a fairly quiet week for most markets with no major releases out of Malaysia. There are just a handful of data releases on the agenda for markets in Asia-Pacific, such as Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, China, Vietnam and Japan. Most markets including Malaysia’s will close on Christmas day. On the second day of Christmas, the UK, the European Union and Canada will be closed for the Boxing Day holiday.

Some economic data to move things along will come from Singapore, which is releasing its November Consumer Price Index (CPI) and industrial production (IP) data on Monday.

In a report last Friday, UOB Global Economics & Markets Research says it expects Singapore’s headline CPI to edge up to 0.6% in November from a year earlier, faster than the 0.4% year-on-year growth recorded in October. Core inflation, which excludes accommodation and private road transport costs, is likely to come in at 0.7% y-o-y, from 0.6% y-o-y the month before. The firm sees Singapore’s November IP contracting 1.6% y-o-y after growing  4% y-o-y  the month before.

Taiwan’s November IP data and unemployment rate will also be released on Monday. UOB expects the republic’s IP to rebound to positive territory at 0.1% y-o-y, after it declined 2.92% y-o-y in October.

On Friday, Thailand is releasing its Manufacturing Production Index for November. China will be announcing its third-quarter balance of payments, retail sales data and industrial profits on the same day.

Data watchers will be looking out for Vietnam’s fourth-quarter and full-year 2019 gross domestic product data, slated for release on Saturday. Vietnam will release its December trade, CPI, IP and retail sales data on the same day and will be the first economy to release 2019 full-year GDP, says UOB.

Key November Japanese data include housing starts and construction orders on Thursday, followed by retail sales, IP and unemployment rate on Friday.

Other economic data releases that are of interest this week include global trade volumes for October, measured by the CPB World Trade Monitor, which is slated to be released on Tuesday. The last reading shows that the volume of world trade decreased 1.3% in September, having increased 0.5% in August.

In equities markets, trading activity is set to wind down this Christmas week, with investors calmed by the passing of the UK election and the announcement of the US-China trade agreement, suspending a threatened round of US tariffs on a US$160 billion list of Chinese imports. US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin announced on Dec 19 that the US-China Phase 1 trade deal will be signed at the start of January 2020.

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s sweeping election victory on Dec 13 clears the way for Britain to leave the EU by the Jan 31 deadline and removes some of the uncertainty hanging over the British economy.

Tan Chung Han, market analyst at foreign exchange broker FXTM, says US President Donald Trump will be spending the holidays in Florida, before returning to Washington around Jan 4.

“Still, that does not mean that the president’s Twitter account will be switched off during the holidays. Hence, investors cannot completely rule out the risk of surprise tweets from the president that could impact the markets,” he says in a note last Friday.

UOB points out that markets will continue to look out for details of the US-China trade deal as the signing deadline nears. “However, the consensus is that this is largely a done deal.”

Key things to watch in developed economies in the week ending Dec 27 is the setting of the date for Trump’s impeachment trial in the Senate. On Dec 18, Trump became the third US president in history to be impeached by the US House of Representatives, setting up a trial in the Senate that will decide whether he remains in office.

On Tuesday, Chinese, Japanese and South Korean leaders are to discuss a potential free-trade deal and tensions over the North Korean nuclear issue.

Over in Hong Kong, merrymaking this festive season looks set to be more muted as the economy has entered into a technical recession and continues to be rocked by seven months of protests calling for democratic reform. China’s President Xi Jinping said on Friday that the country would never allow foreign forces to interfere with its special regions of Hong Kong and Macau.

Meanwhile, those suffering from fatigue following the SRC International Sdn Bhd trial against former prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak will get a break as the trial will continue on Jan 6.

On the corporate front, Bloom­berg data shows that companies announcing their earnings this week include Poh Huat Resources Holdings Bhd, Eduspec Holdings Bhd, Marine & General Bhd and Kim Loong Resources Bhd. On Monday, GSB Group Bhd will be holding its extraordinary general meeting to seek shareholders’ approval for its acquisition of Aeon Frontier Sdn Bhd, Kerjaya Prospek Property Sdn Bhd and Kerjaya Hotel Sdn Bhd for RM672.04 million. Kanger International Bhd will also be holding its EGM on Tuesday, followed by OCR Group Bhd on Thursday.

Companies with annual general meetings are Grand Hoover Bhd and GETS Global Bhd.

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