TOKYO: China’s escalating viral outbreak may end up hitting Japan’s fragile economy harder than the SARS outbreak of 2003, according to economists.
Tourism has become a much more important prop to Japan’s growth over the last decade, and Chinese tourists are the biggest-spenders. That’s why China’s decision Saturday to start blocking outbound tour groups to try to stem the spread of the novel coronavirus has some Japan economists concerned.
If the much higher visitor numbers now tumble at the same pace as they did during the SARS outbreak of around three months, Japanese growth could be cut by 0.2 percentage point, according to economist Shuji Tonouchi at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley. Should the crisis drag on for a full year, it could shave 0.45 percentage point from Japan’s expansion, estimates Nomura Research Institute economist Takahide Kiuchi.
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