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Fork's comment on CYPARK. All Comments

Fork
52 Like · Reply
Update: 17/Nov/2020

1) Intro

Malaysia Gov has shown unwavering commitment in meeting 20% of RE by 2025, that would be 6,000 MW in total. The Gov has awarded more than 2,000 MW of RE, where 1,634 MW (82%) is from solar energy (LSS Fast Track, LSS1, LSS2 & LSS3). Out of the 2,000 MW of RE, Cypark has already secured about 200 MW (10%) and targets to secure 1,000 MW of RE by 2025.

According to TNB AR 2019, Gas & Coal will continue to be the main source of power generation in the medium term, but there will be an increased uptake of renewable energy (RE) generation, especially solar.
- Coal (53.9%)
- Gas (42.30%)
- Hydro (3.1%)
- Solar (0.6%)
- Others (0.1%)
Cost of generating RE is getting cheaper as technology improves. The cost of generating Gas is at RM0.2322 /kWh while the cost of generating Solar is as low as RM0.1399 /kWh - LSS4. The industry foresees the future LSS projects will have bigger capacities of more than 1000 MW to meet 20% of RE and Malaysia Gov also targeting 6 x WTE Plants soon.

Malaysia needs US$8 billion investment to achieve 20% renewable energy target by 2025.



2) On-Going Projects

LSS1 - 15 MWac
- targeted Commercial Operation Date: 31 Dec 2020
- Daud (CEO) estimated RM10 million annually
- This will contribute to FYE 2021

LSS2 - 3 x 30 MWac = 90 MWac
- targeted Commercial Operation Date: 31 Dec 2020
- Daud (CEO) estimated RM25 million annually
- This will contribute to FYE 2021

WTE - 20 to 25 MWac
- Due to MCO, Cypark has yet to announce the completion date
- Prior to MCO, the targeted completion date was at Q2 2020
- Daud (CEO) estimated RM80 million annually
- This will contribute to FYE 2021

LSS3 - 100 MWac
- TNB has inked three LSS3 Power Purchase Agreements.
- Daud (CEO) estimated RM50-60 million annually
- This will contribute to FYE 2022

Net Energy Metering (NEM) ProjectS
- Unknown MWac

Once the above projects are completed, it will be owned, operate & managed by Cypark



3) Future Projects secured (announced )

- MOU w/ Negeri Sembilan Corp - 50MW Solar Project (NEM)
- MOU w/ Kedah Gov - 100MW Solar Project (NEM)
- MOU w/ Petronas Chemicals - WTE Plant Project
- To add 5MWac to 10MWac of biomass/gas per year
- To supply RE directly to end client ( testing phase)



4) Forecast Revenue

Cypark targets to achieve 500 MWdc by FY2022. According to Daud (CEO), Cypark is targeting a stable recurring revenue to be generated from the sales of energy (Green Tech and RE), which will make up 50% of the group’s total revenue by 2022 from the current 16%.

Cypark's revenue comes from four segments as follow:
* Data from Cypark AR2019 *
- RM262 | 73% - Environmental engineering
- RM34 | 9.4% - Landscaping and infrastructure
- RM5 | 1.3% - Maintenance works
- RM59 | 16.3% - Green Tech and RE

To estimate Cypark FY2022 "Green tech and RE" revenue, lets dive in to their past record from FY2014 to FY2019 (Revenue in MYR)
- FY2014 - 34,954,629
- FY2015 - 39,665,233
- FY2016 - 46,544,314
- FY2017 - 48,713,260
- FY2018 - 48,784,125
- FY2019 - 59,020,364

Now, we estimate Cypark future recurring revenue, factoring in their On-Going Projects once completed (Revenue in MYR)
- FY2020 - 59 millions +
- FY2021 - 161 millions +
59+(10/12*8)+(75/12*8)+(80/12*8) + NEM
- FY2022 - 265 millions +
59+10+75+80+(50/12*10) + NEM
- FY2023 - 274 millions +
Existing power plants + NEM + Others
Cypark expects to complete all three projects (LSS 1 & 2 and WTE) by the targeted COD 31 December 2020. For FYE2021, i have multiply by 8 months instead of 10 months (Financial ends at Oct) to have a more conservative forecast.

From their latest QR, Cypark owns approximately 47 MWdc of solar plants In 2020. This capacity is expected to increase to approximately 200 MWdc by early 2021. With only 47 MWdc, the sales of energy already contributing about 59 millions revenue annually. 200 MWdc definitely will contribute positively to Cypark revenue.

Now, we estimate Cypark's total revenue based on CEO's comment on achieving 500 MWdc by FY2022. My above estimated recurring revenue on FY2022 was based on 272 MWdc. If we were to add in both NEM projects which consist of 150 MWdc (MOU w/ Negeri Sembilan Corp + Kedah Gov), the total capacity would be 422 MWdc (very close to 500 MWdc from the CEO's target).

Forecasting Cypark's total revenue (RM):
- FY2017 - 301.7 millions
- FY2018 - 337.9 millions
- FY2019 - 376.7 millions
- FY2020 - 400 millions ++
- FY2021 - ???
- FY2022 - 700 millions ++ (500 MWdc)



5) Dividend

Cypark dividend policy is to distribute not less than 25% of its net profit to the shareholders, provided that such payout would not be detrimental to the operating cash flow as well as business development plans.



6) Cash Flow

According to AR2019, the remaining maturities of the borrowings are as follows:
- 184.8 million - On demand or within 1 year
- 53.2 million - More than 1 year and less than 2 years
- 220.2 million - More than 2 years and less than 5 years
- 715 million - 5 years or more
The reason of huge borrowing is due to building new power plants where large upfront capital investment are required.

Cypark has issued RM550 million Sukuk in FY2019. The RM550 million Sukuk is backed by the projects’ anticipated long-term recurring income from selling energy to TNB for the next 21 years. During 4th Sept 2020, Cypark has issued New RM97.25 million Sukuk ( upto RM500 million )

Generally, Sukuk has a tenure of up to 22 years commencing from the date of the first issuance. On top of that, Sukuk has a fixed profit payments which allows Cypark to determine it at a lower profit rate and enjoy the profit payment savings in the event of an increase in profit rate in the future. As long as Cypark is able to secure more projects in the coming future, logically the recurring income from selling energy to TNB for the next 21 years will also increase.

In the current scenario, it is expected to have more cash outflow than cash inflow due to the Company’s capital investment in the projects and the cash inflow can only be noticed clearly upon the commencement of the commercial operation date (“COD”) of the projects. The Company is expecting a significant amount of revenue and cash inflow to be generated in FY2021 from the completion of LSS 1 & 2 and WTE Plant.

However, Cypark is also expecting a significant cash outflow in year 2021 and 2022 due to capital investment of LSS 4 project and LSS 5 project.



7) Debt Collection (trade receivables)

Cypark has significant amount of trade receivables that is past due for more than 90 days. In AGM2020, Cypark mentioned the outstanding amount is mainly due by Gov agencies. The changes of Gov had impacted longer time in the processing of Cypark’s outstanding trade receivables and this is common whenever changes of administration happen.



DISCLAIMER:
All the information mentioned herein is solely for the purpose of education and references only.

REFERENCE:
- Cypark Annual Report 2019 , 2018, 2017
- Cypark latest Quarterly Report
- Cypark AGM 2020
- TNB Annual Report 2019
- http://ir.chartnexus.com/cypark/docs/agms/Summary%20of%20Key%20Matters%20Discussed%20at%20the%20Postponed%2015th%20AGM%20held%20on%2018%20June%202020.pdf
- https://www.nst.com.my/news/nation/2019/09/518408/malaysia-needs-rm33bil-investment-hit-renewable-energy-target
- https://www.st.gov.my/contents/2020/Copy%20of%20LSS%20Progress%20By%20Region%20(Q1).pdf
- https://www.power-technology.com/comment/malaysia-needs-us8-billion-investment-to-achieve-20-renewable-energy-target-by-2025/
- https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/govt-targets-six-wastetoenergy-plants-2021
- https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/better-earnings-visibility-prospects-cypark
- https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/cypark-sees-doubledigit-revenue-growth
- https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/tnb-awards-three-lss3-projects-total-capacity-29088-mwac
- https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/cypark-reorganises-loans-address-debtcash-flow-mismatch
Show more
Jackson
哈哈,on my way这家飞机的票你有吗?这里飞机要变火箭了,它是limit up up up!哈哈。价格正常化先啦!
Like · 3 days · translate
ON MYWAY
这个也买了一段时间还没到我的价位
Like · 3 days · translate
ON MYWAY
Jackson 还有很多这几个星期继续limit up再limit up的股我都不想这么快卖
1 Like · 3 days · translate
Jackson
这里很早之前买就送在上面咯!手套很早之前买,就在底下咯!哈哈
Like · 3 days · translate
Jackson
你子弹头多多不用怕,我们要卖了才可以买其他的。没有做太多功课的,有也是买一点点投机罢了。也不敢买多啊!哪里这么多子弹?
Like · 3 days · translate
Bruce Lee
budget 2021过了咯!股票要来了
Like · 3 days · translate
ON MYWAY
有吗?通过了么?几时哦!
Like · 3 days · translate
Bruce Lee
几分钟前才通过股票就都跳了
Like · 3 days · translate
ON MYWAY
hoooooo99ooot
Like · 3 days · translate
Nick Soo
Acc 1 money to h7e
1 Like · 3 days · translate
Jackson
Epf 卖 cypark筹钱啊!哈哈
Like · 3 days · translate
Jackson
Bruce被你讲一下,它又涨1分了。
1 Like · 3 days · translate
Eric Choy
一分一分慢慢上,不用太急,不然trader又进来搞事情
Like · 3 days · translate
Tay Tze Sen
cypark...好像稳稳上,为2块钱建路。。。。
1 Like · 3 days · translate
Sian Jin Low
Tay说两块,那么我一定要在1.8以下闪。。。。。。
Like · 3 days · translate
Jackson
Samaiden业绩报告出来了哦!
Like · 3 days · translate
Reuben Yeap
他们也是operating cash负数
1 Like · 3 days · translate
Jackson
Epf 23/11 卖票哦!是不是冲高套利的!
来来来,让它后悔。哈哈
Like · 3 days · translate
Jackson
就是1.29 那天哦!kns
Like · 3 days · translate
Sian Jin Low
靠你推了。。。。。。。
Like · 3 days · translate
Jackson
好吧,我明天就把它推上1.3。你不要挡着路啊!
3 Like · 3 days · translate
Tay Tze Sen
cypark....可以跌吗?。我还要加码。。。
Like · 3 days · translate
Jackson
Samaiden业绩发布!你们认为它的股价明天会有什么反应呢?

它会影响cypark吗?
Like · 3 days · translate
Jackson
先说我的想法吧!应该是没有太大的反应啦!
说不定还会涨呢!哈哈
1 Like · 3 days · translate
Bruce Lee
明天应该会延续今天预算案通过后的乐观情绪继续涨吧!
1 Like · 3 days · translate
john lim
samanden 涨同时间也带cypark 一起的,涨多涨少吧了
1 Like · 3 days · translate
Fong Jun Jie
samaiden这个业绩都在这个价位,cypark在这个价位真的是超值了啦!
2 Like · 3 days · translate
Star Lucky
cypark明天up个10%
1 Like · 3 days · translate
LION KING
明天還有機會就要加码了。
Like · 3 days · translate
Sian Jin Low
samaiden solarvest业绩出后反而突显cypark??????
Like · 3 days · translate
Jackson
哈哈哈哈哈!这就是cypark的股东,都了乐观有信心的股东。太好了!
1 Like · 3 days · translate
Jackson
Samaiden这个季度业绩就看似平平无奇。
最近拿到的工程合约,两年内要完成它。
未来每个季度可以贡献多少营业额和净利?
我也不知道!但我想股价市场早就在反应中了吧!
Like · 3 days · translate
Fong Jun Jie
还是你们要去samaiden那边宣传一下 哈哈哈哈哈
1 Like · 2 days · translate
Bruce Lee
去samaiden跟solarvest洗板
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Nick Soo
拉人?????????????
Like · 2 days · translate
ON MYWAY
jackson. 好搞笑,哈哈哈哈 viVO 我第一次听过可以看到崩盘,哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈
Like · 2 days · translate
Jackson
大白鲨, 什么崩盘哦!不明白。vivocom我去kacau一下罢了。
Like · 2 days · translate
Jackson
cypark 又上又下啊!epf又挡路吗?哈哈
Like · 2 days · translate
Edward Tan
epf是否要出掉没派息的公司呢?
Like · 2 days · translate
Bruce Lee
最近很多像vivocom这类做share conso的股票套死很多人啊!前不久我还去netx那边喊卖
1 Like · 2 days · translate
Jackson
喊卖啦……等下就给人鸟了!讲一个股票某基本面不好,都被鸟了!何况是喊卖!
1 Like · 2 days · translate
Jackson
cypark 明年就派息了咯!哈哈
1 Like · 2 days · translate
Jackson
它们有自己的原因吧!
1 Like · 2 days · translate
man风之谷
@Bruce lee你在什么频道看到这么多这类型的股,可以发给我看吗。。。。
Like · 2 days · translate
Bruce Lee
Jackson, 我倒是没有被骂啦!因为那个netx抢钱太凶了,share conso后直接right issues.我只是计算了那些散户需要多少价位才可以不亏。然后大多数都卖了。
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Bruce Lee
风之谷,我不加入什么频道的。netx是我朋友问我share conso和right issues是什么我才留意的。至于其他的股票最近有share conso都是在每天的top gainer%有的。好像最近特别多,都是那几家同样老板的公司咯!
Like · 2 days · translate
Reuben Yeap
太多人拿钱拿到epf的网站都serverdown,应该还要抽更多钱
1 Like · 2 days · translate
ON MYWAY
哇!老板要甩盘咯,赚了还不套吗?
Like · 2 days · translate
Star Lucky
今天不上不下的。 。。。。
Like · 2 days · translate
Chia xing Cher
哪位大老板买进
Like · 2 days · translate
Jackson
是哦,感觉又可能要上了!哈哈

还是错觉哦!
1 Like · 2 days · translate
Nick Soo
khind and bonia 吃了伟哥啊。
Like · 2 days · translate
Bruce Lee
才发现大多数散户买vsolar, netx, mlab, at, focus的钱都被fintec赚去了。那老板好厉害
Like · 2 days · translate
Fong Jun Jie
今天不知道会不会挑战1.30这个高墙.. 目前一直在1.27被打下来
Like · 2 days · translate
Eric Choy
127有人买75万股,应该是有故事的人
Like · 2 days · translate
Fong Jun Jie
1.26 1.27 1.28 大概有2百万股都被吃下去了...
Like · 2 days · translate
ON MYWAY
很好,很快会再突破新高了!继续努力
Like · 2 days · translate
NiaSing Wai
先站稳1.26就好,上得高跌得低~慢慢上就好
Like · 2 days · translate
Sk Cheong
@ON MYMAY有你这只大鲨鱼进场,破1.300指日可待
Like · 2 days · translate
Chun Yap Lim
最近cypark 每天上少少 慢慢就到1.5 了
1 Like · 2 days · translate
Bruce Lee
每天上一点我都很高兴了
1 Like · 2 days · translate
Jackson
Sian,我推1.3了咧!你不要卖下来咧!没有钱在推咧!你卖了现在换你推了。哈哈
3 Like · 2 days · translate
肚腩神
1.28 排队卖130 LOT
1 Like · 2 days · translate
Star Lucky
下周可以挑战1.5了。哈哈
Like · 2 days · translate
Jackson
又遇到跟上周五一样,冲高回落。休息两天。哈哈
Like · 2 days · translate
Bruce Lee
看起来1.25很多人抢着买啊
Like · 2 days · translate
Reuben Yeap
哇谢谢Jackson,我也要买可惜他就是不要跌1.1多给我买
Like · 2 days · translate
LION KING
这样的技术图表来看才是健康的,为后面上升趋势铺路,制造多一点支撑点。
1 Like · 2 days · translate
Fong Jun Jie
这几天的量.. 看样子是很难跌穿1.20了~ 虽然慢,不过我都等了这么久啦!不急的,慢慢来慢慢上就好!基底应该打得蛮稳的了!
2 Like · 2 days · translate
Reuben Yeap
是啦,他不跌我就去average我的银行股了
Like · 2 days · translate
Jackson
或许我是乐观主义吧!我还是认为基本涨回1.4-1.6区间,概率还是很大的。随着要进入明年,NTA还是会随着时间的推移升至2块吧!股息或许随着现金流改善而再次派发。所以我选择再耐心等一等吧!获利入袋卖也没有错……就换一批新股东罢了。
1 Like · 2 days · translate
Star Lucky
下周应该还会继续慢慢上,每次支撑都不断往上走 挑战阻力突破一次比一次高
1 Like · 2 days · translate
Fong Jun Jie
至少我是认为在LSS4竞标成绩出来之前,都大概会在1.2~1.4之间啦,我的2 cent。。 哈哈哈
Like · 2 days · translate
Reuben Yeap
又是epf卖的。。。
Like · 2 days · translate
Jackson
是咯!24/11 继续卖票,搞不好到今天为止epf都是在卖票了!跟市场反向有时也是有可能是错的。它缺钱,就算股价再涨它还会继续卖票吧!嘻嘻
Like · 2 days · translate
Sian Jin Low
其实很多时候我注意到一个现象,epf一开始卖的时候股价都是越起越高,后期才弱了下来甚至回调
Like · 2 days · translate
Sian Jin Low
现在可能后期了。。。。。。
Like · 2 days · translate
LION KING
後期最有可能回调到1.15-1.2左右,继续冲上去的话就太神了。
Like · 2 days · translate
Tempura Fish
直到现在都没买入,只是看别人赚钱。可能这是我的兴趣...
Like · 2 days · translate
Jackson
是的,回调也不是不可能的。
毕竟epf也算是大户,影响买方情绪还是有的。
只是epf卖的量还是有点少!它也想高价再卖咯!如果完全没有信心,应该卖再可一些。
Like · 2 days · translate
Jackson
Sian 下个星期,我们开盘还是可以直接卖。现在价钱也还不错。嘻嘻
Like · 2 days · translate
Star Lucky
看来下周要跌了 大戶jackson要准备丢票了
Like · 2 days · translate
Jackson
我们一起丢,把它丢回Rm0.90。
然后再买过。哈哈

Fork和Sian很多投资者,还在等回调补票啊!
Like · 2 days · translate
Star Lucky
感觉力量应该没那么強大可以丟到0.90,說不定等下一丢,又起一轮,哈哈
1 Like · 2 days · translate
Bruce Lee
0.9哪里够,我在0.8等你们
Like · 2 days · translate
Jackson
这样要打电话给Epf,叫他一次过丢完。不要这样一点一点丢,看了都闲。一次丢到5%以下,可能可以到9毛。之后下次卖,也不用报备bursa了。我们不想知道。哈哈
1 Like · 2 days · translate
Jackson
Bruce, 0.8要叫老板也丢。太低可以Sbb。公司钱还很多可以用10% SBB。哈哈
1 Like · 2 days · translate
Bruce Lee
0.8我就要去贷款提epf大量买进了
3 Like · 2 days · translate
Fork
我只剩下免费票不可以卖啊。你们就帮帮忙丢完它吧哈哈哈
3 Like · 2 days · translate
Jackson
Fork,可惜我今天没有卖70%,留30%免费票。
2 Like · 2 days · translate
Jackson
Like · 2 days · translate
Bruce Lee
他说的真保守,我的目标价可是3块
Like · 2 days · translate
Hanson
@Bruce Lee
你也是太保守了吧?
我的目标价是7块呢!
4 Like · 2 days · translate
Jackson
Hanson,你不是说你卖了吗?又买回了吗?


3块是3年,7块要7年哦!

我买3个月了,所以它涨3毛半了!哈哈
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3 Like · 1 day · translate
Hanson
@Jackson
是啊!回头草是绿的香.......
股价都绿了,您敢说还不香吗?
2 Like · 1 day · translate
Star Lucky
有个師傅教我说买股票有时不是买低就是安全 因為一低還有一低低,有时股价能突破加圖表觀察的买才更安全,代表买在上升趨勢有力
Like · 1 day · translate
Jackson
是啊没有人知道几时是最低。去年买的人也没有想过今年可以更低啊!但是始终会有底部,那就是看时机了。

我是幸运的,我之前完全没有留意再生能源这一个板块的。机缘巧合,我舅舅拿一个solar panel灯给我看,问我他的灯有100w吗?我才想找看看马股里面的太阳能公司。缘分才让我看到它跌到近10年价位。

我的想法很简单,就是我当时买入的价钱或许就跟当时ipo上市不久的人一样。但是它现在的生意规模已经不能同日而语了。这就重复了两年前买Dpharama的时候一样的想法。当然分配卖了Dp也是要找地方投资的啦!才想投资cypark咯!多久能涨没有人知道,但我还是可以给它三年时间的。

所以低点在哪里,还是要做一点功课和运气咯!嘻嘻
可能还有更低咧!谁又能知晓呢?
Show more
2 Like · 1 day · translate
ON MYWAY
好草不怕回头吃。。。。。
1 Like · 1 day · translate
Sk Cheong
Jackson你是住哪里的?
Like · 20 hours · translate
Jackson
什么事,你要带我去cypark看solar farm啊?哈哈
1 Like · 19 hours · translate