Fork's comment on CYPARK. All Comments

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Update: 17/Nov/2020

1) Intro

Malaysia Gov has shown unwavering commitment in meeting 20% of RE by 2025, that would be 6,000 MW in total. The Gov has awarded more than 2,000 MW of RE, where 1,634 MW (82%) is from solar energy (LSS Fast Track, LSS1, LSS2 & LSS3). Out of the 2,000 MW of RE, Cypark has already secured about 200 MW (10%) and targets to secure 1,000 MW of RE by 2025.

According to TNB AR 2019, Gas & Coal will continue to be the main source of power generation in the medium term, but there will be an increased uptake of renewable energy (RE) generation, especially solar.
- Coal (53.9%)
- Gas (42.30%)
- Hydro (3.1%)
- Solar (0.6%)
- Others (0.1%)
Cost of generating RE is getting cheaper as technology improves. The cost of generating Gas is at RM0.2322 /kWh while the cost of generating Solar is as low as RM0.1399 /kWh - LSS4. The industry foresees the future LSS projects will have bigger capacities of more than 1000 MW to meet 20% of RE and Malaysia Gov also targeting 6 x WTE Plants soon.

Malaysia needs US$8 billion investment to achieve 20% renewable energy target by 2025.



2) On-Going Projects

LSS1 - 15 MWac
- targeted Commercial Operation Date: 31 Dec 2020
- Daud (CEO) estimated RM10 million annually
- This will contribute to FYE 2021

LSS2 - 3 x 30 MWac = 90 MWac
- targeted Commercial Operation Date: 31 Dec 2020
- Daud (CEO) estimated RM25 million annually
- This will contribute to FYE 2021

WTE - 20 to 25 MWac
- Due to MCO, Cypark has yet to announce the completion date
- Daud (CEO) estimated RM80 million annually
- This will contribute to FYE 2021

LSS3 - 100 MWac
- TNB has inked three LSS3 Power Purchase Agreements.
- Daud (CEO) estimated RM50-60 million annually
- This will contribute to FYE 2022

Net Energy Metering (NEM) ProjectS
- Unknown MWac

Once the above projects are completed, it will be owned, operate & managed by Cypark



3) Future Projects secured (announced )

- MOU w/ Negeri Sembilan Corp - 50MW Solar Project (NEM)
- MOU w/ Kedah Gov - 100MW Solar Project (NEM)
- MOU w/ Petronas Chemicals - WTE Plant Project
- To add 5MWac to 10MWac of biomass/gas per year
- To supply RE directly to end client ( testing phase)



4) Forecast Revenue

Cypark targets to achieve 500 MWdc by FY2022. According to Daud (CEO), Cypark is targeting a stable recurring revenue to be generated from the sales of energy (Green Tech and RE), which will make up 50% of the group’s total revenue by 2022 from the current 16%.

Cypark's revenue comes from four segments as follow:
* Data from Cypark AR2019 *
- RM262 | 73% - Environmental engineering
- RM34 | 9.4% - Landscaping and infrastructure
- RM5 | 1.3% - Maintenance works
- RM59 | 16.3% - Green Tech and RE

Cypark "Green tech and RE" revenue (MYR)
- FY2014 - 34,954,629
- FY2015 - 39,665,233
- FY2016 - 46,544,314
- FY2017 - 48,713,260
- FY2018 - 48,784,125
- FY2019 - 59,020,364
- FY2020 - 65,856,536

Cypark future recurring revenue (Estimation), factoring in their On-Going Projects once completed (Revenue in MYR)
- FY2021 - 161 millions +
59+(10/12*8)+(75/12*8)+(80/12*8) + NEM
- FY2022 - 265 millions +
59+10+75+80+(50/12*10) + NEM

Cypark expects to complete all three projects (LSS 1 & 2 and WTE) by the targeted COD 31 December 2020. For FYE2021, i have multiply by 8 months instead of 10 months (Financial ends at Oct) to have a more conservative forecast.

From their latest QR, Cypark owns approximately 47 MWdc of solar plants In 2020. This capacity is expected to increase to approximately 200 MWdc by early 2021. With only 47 MWdc, the sales of energy already contributing about 65 millions revenue annually. 200 MWdc definitely will contribute positively to Cypark revenue.



5) Dividend

Cypark dividend policy is to distribute not less than 25% of its net profit to the shareholders, provided that such payout would not be detrimental to the operating cash flow as well as business development plans.



6) Cash Flow

According to AR2019, the remaining maturities of the borrowings are as follows:
- 184.8 million - On demand or within 1 year
- 53.2 million - More than 1 year and less than 2 years
- 220.2 million - More than 2 years and less than 5 years
- 715 million - 5 years or more
The reason of huge borrowing is due to building new power plants where large upfront capital investment are required.

Cypark has issued RM550 million Sukuk in FY2019. The RM550 million Sukuk is backed by the projects’ anticipated long-term recurring income from selling energy to TNB for the next 21 years. During 4th Sept 2020, Cypark has issued New RM97.25 million Sukuk ( upto RM500 million )

Generally, Sukuk has a tenure of up to 22 years commencing from the date of the first issuance. On top of that, Sukuk has a fixed profit payments which allows Cypark to determine it at a lower profit rate and enjoy the profit payment savings in the event of an increase in profit rate in the future. As long as Cypark is able to secure more projects in the coming future, logically the recurring income from selling energy to TNB for the next 21 years will also increase.

In the current scenario, it is expected to have more cash outflow than cash inflow due to the Company’s capital investment in the projects and the cash inflow can only be noticed clearly upon the commencement of the commercial operation date (“COD”) of the projects. The Company is expecting a significant amount of revenue and cash inflow to be generated in FY2021 from the completion of LSS 1 & 2 and WTE Plant.

However, Cypark is also expecting a significant cash outflow in year 2021 and 2022 due to capital investment of LSS 4 project and LSS 5 project.



7) Debt Collection (trade receivables)

Cypark has significant amount of trade receivables that is past due for more than 90 days. In AGM2020, Cypark mentioned the outstanding amount is mainly due by Gov agencies. The changes of Gov had impacted longer time in the processing of Cypark’s outstanding trade receivables and this is common whenever changes of administration happen.



DISCLAIMER:
All the information mentioned herein is solely for the purpose of education and references only.

REFERENCE:
- Cypark Annual Report 2019 , 2018, 2017
- Cypark latest Quarterly Report
- Cypark AGM 2020
- TNB Annual Report 2019
- http://ir.chartnexus.com/cypark/docs/agms/Summary%20of%20Key%20Matters%20Discussed%20at%20the%20Postponed%2015th%20AGM%20held%20on%2018%20June%202020.pdf
- https://www.nst.com.my/news/nation/2019/09/518408/malaysia-needs-rm33bil-investment-hit-renewable-energy-target
- https://www.st.gov.my/contents/2020/Copy%20of%20LSS%20Progress%20By%20Region%20(Q1).pdf
- https://www.power-technology.com/comment/malaysia-needs-us8-billion-investment-to-achieve-20-renewable-energy-target-by-2025/
- https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/govt-targets-six-wastetoenergy-plants-2021
- https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/better-earnings-visibility-prospects-cypark
- https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/cypark-sees-doubledigit-revenue-growth
- https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/tnb-awards-three-lss3-projects-total-capacity-29088-mwac
- https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/cypark-reorganises-loans-address-debtcash-flow-mismatch
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Goeh Kar Win
站稳above1.50 pls........
Like · 2 weeks · translate
lit Li
很好站稳了,还是保持uptrend!一点一点上,lama lama jadi bukit
2 Like · 2 weeks · translate
Ken Law
Good. 明天冲1.58
1 Like · 2 weeks · translate
Star Lucky
明天若有回調就加碼了。。。。
1 Like · 2 weeks · translate
Bruce Lee
今天1.5的目标达成,明天再接再厉!趋势来了挡也挡不住
Like · 2 weeks · translate
Echo echo
过年后继续,每天1%都夠了
1 Like · 2 weeks · translate
Tay Tze Sen
cypark gogogo
1 Like · 2 weeks · translate
pali cd
tp 1 rm1.5 achieved..next tp 2 rm2
Like · 2 weeks · translate
Star Lucky
还有多少人hold着没套利 。。
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Jason Yzs
没有2块我不套利。。。
Like · 2 weeks · translate
lit Li
Guys be patience pls !! Now everyone take profit to celebrate new year,after new year will fly
1 Like · 2 weeks · translate
Nicholas Mok
Tay 我现在才发现你的头像是手套群的封面, 笑死
Like · 2 weeks · translate
Tay Tze Sen
手套群我被踢出来了。现在里面的人怎样了。。哈哈
Like · 2 weeks · translate
Nicholas Mok
人数不断减少,少了几千人了,我在里面看笑话 hold,dont sell
Like · 2 weeks · translate
Jackson
新年快乐,恭喜发财。cypark生意兴隆,业绩蒸蒸日上!股息多多,股价高高。哈哈哈哈
8 Like · 2 weeks · translate
Nick Soo
小强在那里啊。。。。。。。。。
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Jeffrey Lim
是不是过RM 1.6 就飞了。
Like · 2 weeks · translate
Star Lucky
之前tp rm2,现在tp感觉可以rm3 至少,这股不輸其他太阳能股。
7 Like · 2 weeks · translate
Echo echo
必须小强大胆预测才能飞,陈强强快出来。
2 Like · 2 weeks · translate
Peter Tham
Star, 就算TP3 要等上一年半载,也是跟它等下去
3 Like · 2 weeks · translate
Star Lucky
哈哈 我從去年就买这个股了,反正等啊!顶多买卖操作一点降低成本价,套用冷眼前輩說的话:有成長价值的公司买了不要卖!除非overvalued. 希望年后cypark股東們一起huat啊!!
4 Like · 2 weeks · translate
Tay Tze Sen
太阳能接下来的几年将快速增长。。
2 Like · 2 weeks · translate
cw yeo
with Biden administration, he will champion ESG, Cypark will surely benefitted locally from LSS4
2 Like · 2 weeks · translate
Jeffrey Lim
有主题,市场就几支能源股。。。看看美国能源股... First solar 和 sunpower 的 trend....
1 Like · 2 weeks · translate
cw yeo
average all up by 3x in 1 year period
2 Like · 2 weeks · translate
Jeffrey Lim
First solar at PE 48
Sun power at PE 122

Cypark (msia) at PE 10.50
Samaiden at PE 98.31
Solarvest at PE 102.92
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4 Like · 2 weeks · translate
Edward Tan
lim, first solar过去的三个月赚近 900个m,cypark。。samaiden。。solarvest, 它们的pe不能跟前者拿来参考或比较的哦~
3 Like · 2 weeks · translate
林敬永
Edward你是理智的。。。。。。
1 Like · 2 weeks · translate
Bruce Lee
不同生意怎么能够拿来做比较
1 Like · 2 weeks · translate
Jeffrey Lim
Edward, thanks info...没做好功课,sorry if give wrong info....
1 Like · 2 weeks · translate
Star Lucky
等下次qr出来。看看有没有改善进步。
1 Like · 2 weeks · translate
Jackson
我想知道,什么PE和赚900m不能比吗?它们不同行业还是不同市场不能比?美股和马股不能比吗?
1 Like · 1 week · translate
Bruce Lee
如果没记错,sunrun sunpower solaredge的业务倒是跟cypark samaiden solarvest类似都是EPCC。但是Firstsolar是生产与销售太阳能系统与组件所以不适合与C S S来做比较。
1 Like · 1 week · translate
Star Lucky
等回調加碼,等着等着股价越来越高,希望下周有机会加碼
1 Like · 1 week · translate
Jeffrey Lim
要加码快啊,不等人了。。。呵呵
Like · 1 week · translate
cw yeo
很想买低卖高,回调再买,但没办法做到,所以我还是等RM3.00
2 Like · 1 week · translate
lit Li
Permission to take off!!!! Tp 3.8!!!
1 Like · 1 week · translate
CH Sam
CYPARK (5184) triggered our:
- Entry signal at RM1.55.
- Short-term Target 1: RM1.63;
- Mid-term Target 2: RM1.75,
- Stop Loss: RM1.50.
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3 Like · 1 week · translate
Zen Cheong
Break 1.60 today. Go!
Like · 1 week · translate
Star Lucky
每天起一点,是好事。。。。
1 Like · 1 week · translate
Jackson
这样的态势不破1.6吗?哈哈
Like · 1 week · translate
Star Lucky
第四次挑战。。。。。。。。。
Like · 1 week · translate
Tay Tze Sen
挑战1.60......
Like · 1 week · translate
NiaSing Wai
恭喜发财大家,希望大家一起发发发!
Like · 1 week · translate
cw yeo
1.60 should be very near to get across
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cw yeo
anyhow still very cheap.....
Like · 1 week · translate
Jackson
继续冲刺,突破1.60。
1.60就是未来的支撑了吧!
3 Like · 1 week · translate
T
1.59 1.60 有road block
Like · 1 week · translate
Ken Law
今天又加码了。加2千股而已。
1 Like · 1 week · translate
Star Lucky
我每天排队加碼100lot 每天都没买到 哈哈哈
Like · 1 week · translate
Star Lucky
关在1.55 明天能1.60 了吗。。。
1 Like · 1 week · translate
Jeffrey Lim
Is coming.............. 期待青烛
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Sk Teo
tomorrow hold 1.60
Like · 1 week · translate
Star Lucky
Equity Value per Share
(MYR) = Total value / Shares Outstanding
= MYR2,646 / 488 fair value MYR5.42
PE vs Market: CYPARK is good value based on its PE Ratio (10.2x) compared to the MY market (19.2x).
5 Like · 1 week · translate
Jackson
Wow 5.42 good 全部发财。哈哈哈哈
1 Like · 1 week · translate
cw yeo
Star, how u get 2646? tq
Like · 1 week · translate
Star Lucky
這是从分析软件计算看到的估计结果哦,算的有太多formula数字了,copy不完,哈哈,所以只copy一些重点做参考
Like · 1 week · translate
Bruce Lee
要派发DRS了,有谁要去agm吗?
1 Like · 2 days · translate
NiaSing Wai
其实怎么参加 agm 啊?
1 Like · 2 days · translate
Tui Ho Wang
bruce lee我会去
这次又是线上股东大会
1 Like · 2 days · translate
cw yeo
will there be any special announcements or just voting and balik?
1 Like · 2 days · translate
Bruce Lee
cw, u can attend the agm and tell us if there is any special announcement. Since no one will know whether there is special announcement.??
Like · 1 day · translate
cw yeo
sorry.....working....busy
Like · 1 day · translate
June Lee
how to join online agm?
Like · 1 day · translate
Tui Ho Wang
they will send u email regarding the agm registration link soon
instruction will be shown there
2 Like · 1 day · translate
Jackson
一起去投票啊?投票有股息拿吗?哈哈哈哈
1 Like · 1 day · translate
Jackson
没见卖压,飞的很轻松哦!哈哈
1 Like · 1 day · translate
Jackson
不高不卖,就等小强来买。
Like · 1 day · translate
Ling Ling
是有什么好消息吗?除了派股息..突然飞..哈哈
Like · 1 day · translate
Star Lucky
哇,这次可以突破1.60了吗。
2 Like · 1 day · translate
Leo Tan
每次都会下回来。 =D
Like · 1 day · translate
Ranger
老車有上就很好了,上得快下得也快
Like · 1 day · translate
Bruce Lee
每天一点的稳稳上就好了
Like · 1 day · translate
Jackson
cypark有资金进来哦!
看来有人看到它的价值了吧!
1 Like · 1 day · translate
Jackson
RE股,变成它最便宜了吗?哈哈

一向来就是它最便宜吧!
Like · 1 day · translate
Admiral Adama
千股齐跌尽然逆势上涨!怀疑人生中。。。
1 Like · 1 day · translate
Hanson
@Jackson

春天来了!!!
这次股息应该会过5sen
1 Like · 1 day · translate
Jackson
它是趁大市不好,便宜买入。哈哈。没有丢便宜,只可以高价购买。存到几块钱,这几分钱算什么。
Like · 1 day · translate
Admiral Adama
啊婆跑得快,肯定有古怪。
1 Like · 1 day · translate
Jason Yzs
应该是lss4 有进展了 哈哈哈哈哈哈
1 Like · 1 day · translate
Star Lucky
lss4加上drs,耐心等待,走向2.0
1 Like · 1 day · translate
Bruce Lee
今天太阳能板cypark的表现最好哦!好难得
2 Like · 1 day · translate
Admiral Adama
还以为4点后会开始推,这么快就没戏了?
Like · 1 day · translate
陈强强
今天起4%,星期一开始低开低走跌8%
Like · 1 day · translate
Jason Yzs
蟑螂强,不要顺便mute你的支持者leh,他们还要在你群组发言的
Like · 1 day · translate
Nick Soo
出来了。 哈哈。。。。。
1 Like · 1 day · translate
ng weihan
蟑螂一出现好事自然来哈哈哈
1 Like · 1 day · translate
陈弱弱
我想问你们
如果一个人在这些留言一直喊跌
一直说你们散户被割韭菜
可是就在自己的群叫自己群人买。
我们应该称呼它为 ?
哈哈哈
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1 Like · 1 day · translate
Bruce Lee
这种人俗称蟑螂,注册名为陈强强,你也可以叫它蟑螂强。你可以在klse screener的多只股票讨论区看到它的身影,或者也可以在脸书肉搜它。但是它的贡献在于反面影响也就是它喊跌就是涨的信号。
4 Like · 1 day · translate
Hanson
@陈弱弱

它一直在这里喊跌
就是捉弄我们心理
它越是再喊跌的话
我们就是越不卖了
就降低卖压的机率

反而它就叫自己群人买
这样就能保护到群组人
利用群组人买进的力量
慢慢的推高股价获利咯

如果我们傻傻追高去买
它就会叫群组人快卖了
这样它和群组人就赚了
根本就是在操纵股市啦

而它故意在脸书博出位
一直show off自己富有
利用两千元故事博出位
最后在脸书开股票群组
每天招兵买马加入私群

不然它每天吃饱没事做
一直出来喊跌干啥呢?
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1 Like · 23 hours · translate
cw yeo
CYPARK entrusted by shareholders like PNB, LTH, KWSP, PUBLIC MUTUAL, GREAT EASTERN, PRINCIPAL....
1 Like · 23 hours · translate
Star Lucky
不用理他咯,这公司值得价值投资,未来成长空间还很大,太阳能领域里的龙头,股价又比其他低,被低估了,等待未来开花结果,总有突破新高的时候
1 Like · 17 hours · translate
李政准
如果这家公司的现金流转正那真的会冲天
可惜近年负现金流越来越高
Like · 10 hours · translate
陈强强
不用跟这里的韭菜讲那么多的啦,对牛弹琴
Like · 10 hours · translate
Nick Soo
不要跟散户说太多。 他只有说掉
Like · 10 hours · translate
李政准
cypark的钱会不会收回来 就要看我们的政府会不会对未来展望想出更多好的政策来救市 而不是救“自己的口袋” 祝各位投资愉快 赚大钱!
Like · 10 hours · translate
Admiral Adama
COD之后就可以开始回收现金啦。而且付钱不是向他们签约PPA买电的TNB吗?
3 Like · 9 hours · translate
Bruce Lee
看tnb的业绩应该不需要太担心收不回账吧!
Like · 8 hours · translate
Zack Gan
关于Cypark的未收账款太多一事,毕竟他们是行业的领头羊,拿下了目前最多的contract, 该欠款多也合情理吧

未来SV and Samai也开始标到政府的工程时,又谁能保证他们不会面对未收账款的问题呢?
2 Like · 8 hours · translate
Admiral Adama
Solarvest/Samaiden只是做EPCC,他们并没有拥有那些资产,当然可以向资产拥有者做progress claim。而cypark的商业模型主要是BOO,他们拥有他们所建造的新能源资产,所以他们就和传统的独立发电厂IPP一样,没开始发电就没钱收,但只要发电厂运作了就可以开始长达21年不断猪笼入水了。
3 Like · 4 hours · translate