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Hahaha. My previous comment not insulted anyone but something related IB interest then clasified it as spam. Comment removed and i banned 2 days for comment.
KYY is 84-85 years old n started to study share investment after 55-58 years old ; he likes to give views in blogs ... U sure GL got talked good about Supermax 1-2 months ago ?
Yes, he had good words with Supermax just within these 2 months. please check his comment history, it's not so hard to find out, and he was bashing Kossan then. after switching, narrative changed.
A little bit of capital switching to supermax from Kossan because of supermax upcomijng QR. However, very likely the flow will reverse once Kossan's superior value is known
If Supermax profit is below 1.3 billion should be treated as below expectation; 3-4 days ago I found out one more thing, Super n Top only about 45-50% nitrile glove ( among their products)then Kossan has about 76-80% in higher profit margin nitrile glove ...
Kevin, you've been bashing Supermax for a long time but now only you know their product combination. What a joke. Furthermore, you should be amazed that even so, Supermax was able to deliver such a high profit, their business model is a success. And their upcoming production expansion are all mainly nitrile gloves. That will set them on par (80% nitrile) with Kossan in terms of product line up.
With your narrow mindset , it was bashing counters to gain but in my view, I just express my views; if U have studied so much since 6-7 months ago still can’t figure out the fundamental of Kossan n Topglove n Harta r much stronger than Supermax n many retail investors can’t figure out after production facing excess of productions then the theory of large size manufacturers will survive n continue to post ok profits while much smaller manufacturers going to struggle ...:)
Theoretically, yes, the pandemic gives the illusion that the gap between Kossan and Supermax in terms of glove composition, business model viability, market share, has closed, so Supermax should be valued higher than before.
However, if you look at what Supermax is doing now, they are not changing their old habits. They are still dreaming of their OBM/ODM model which have fared miserably. When supply starts to exceed demand, you will see the market share of both companies will start to diverge.
GL, are you serious? you shared an article dated 20th Dec 2020 and you mentioned it's before pandemic. I wonder how accurate is all the information you've posted.
Btw, pre-covid's fundamental is no longer valid. It has been changed structurally. And Supermx capacity will catch up to those of Harta and kossan in no time. So it's not worth comparing pre-covid situation. Even for now, Super is still sitting on much higher cash pile than Kossan, as Kossan's on huge account receivables. FYI, I hold all 3 gloves companies shares except TG.
If he is below 30-32 years old n less than 5 years in shares , still ok coz he studies fundamental analysis as well but not good enough to see the big picture ; if he already 10 years in share investment n older than 36-37 years old then not too good ... Expansion at 2021 still can get the cakes but 2022 then I think less important coz that time , Topglove, no.1 of Thailand n few more of Chinese manufacturers also expanding fast...
70% -75% of the retail investors( exclude those less than 1 years newbies) don’t understand value ... just look at prices ... many goreng like next month the world going to burst..:)
No need cakap apa apa la, supermax current price undervalue, kossan under value is true so no need do argue la see u believe in which one and buy which one only.......
kossan have trade receivables (which is quite healthy compare others company)
Supermax expand at United states remain unknown
But one thing can confirm is malaysia still will be glove no.1 nation in world for the remaining 5 years intco and bluesail can unlimited pump their capacity but post covid their cost efficiencies cant compete with malaysia (may affect their profit kao kao)
Supermax utilisation rate for the past 10 years is at 60%. Supermax can expand all it wants but if it doesnt emphasise more on R&D, cost efficiency, correct business model, it will lag its peers as before. Opening US plant is not cost efficient and clearly, its business direction looking forward is not good. Don't forget it wants opened a HQ in Meru Klang, it is not even a good use of capital. Distribution centre in USA? How much headcost? How much wages they have to incur?
Like Kevin said, alot of noob investors only know how to see numbers. Investment need logic and experience. Experience can be obtained by studying the industry and the business in depth. Doesn't mean its capacity expanded to 48 billion in 2022 means it will sell 48 billion gloves. Do you know Kossan before pandemic already has multi year expansion plan for 50 billion gloves at Bidor? Expansion plan is just a plan.
Kevin and I didn't stick to value investing because it is fashionable or sounds smarter. Only because you cannot detach a stock from its business characteristic which is the sole function of buying stocks. Other than that, is just pure gambling. Maybe in the first couple years some will do well. But investing is forever, not this year or next year.
zzz ok ok u all is big investor very smart haha nvm for me i will hold big 4 to play la among them i see all is ok watever business model i dunno cause i never work inside i just know supermax boss is damn kaya now alot of cash on hand (in fact all glove boss also)
GL lost too much in Supermax, switched to Kossan at the very wrong timing when Supermax dipped to the lowest point very close to Kossan's price. that's why love turned hate.
Supermax will be reporting stellar QR that will leave Kossan behind a dust trail. Kossan will never catch up to Supermax from this point. Plus the fact that Post pandemic Supermax will be stronger than Post pandemic Kossan. And it is expected to earn two times more than Kossan during pandemic.
In fact all glove stocks are OK. But the price is a problem. Currently, I feel Kossan has the weakest prospects among all glove companies with weakest competitive advantage. Harta has advanced tech, Topglove largest, Supermax has superior OBM/ODM model plus US plant. Only Kossan lack a clear advangae.
But the market is a weighing machine in the long run. I believe in the next few months, Kossan will drop further and Supermax maintain, or if Supermax go up, Kossan will only stay idle. The market will reflect the wider premium that Supermax deserves.
GL， if Supermax latest quarter is below 1.4 billion should be below expectation n Top n Super profit will become peak in this quarter ( March for Super )....
Kossan advantage is dont do share buy back to max like Topglove; don’t be too ambitious to build USD500 mil in USA like Supermax coz high production cost there.... Harta , the one with highest technical skills n best in research but always richest valuation... Kossan is the best in term of value ...:)
The US has turned to be more anti Asian countries n anti outside n anti trade 6-10 years ago ; I did mention US n EU got a lot of rules n regulations need to be followed by manufacturers/ investors from other countries... Even Genting big bet in Las Vegas n New York , not really wise move , need even better veteran investors or experienced fund managers to give views ...
Supermax will receive lots of subsidies and incentives. The reason is gloves are now national security goods and USA do not want to be dependent on China. Maybe the cost factor was always a problem, but not any more. Supermax made the first move, is a very good move.
I am sure Stanley is aware of this. For other markets, they can produce from low cost country. Meanwhile, they will be able to corner the US market very quickly. Don't forget they are doing their own distribution, and Supermax or Aurora will be perceived as American brand, i am sure they can command a premium to nullify any cost disadvantage if any.
If i am other glove companies and competing for USA market, I will definitely be at a disadvantage to Supermax. I hope US will impose Glove import duties on the pretext of anti dumping.
Currently, USA seems to signal it can use indirect methods to restrict imports like how it block Topglove's shipments. When it becomes more self reliant, it can block other glove companies or make it hard for them.
I believe the Americans feel they must produce national security goods at their own soil.
Harta in the process of coming out anti virus / anti bacterial gloves but too rich valuation since 5-7 years ago plus not sure slow in actions Harta can post 1.5 billion (Profit after tax) in latest quarter or not ... For the share prices of Top 4 in this week, I continue to think Kossan offer higher value than Topglove, Super n Harta ..
Hahaha it is pointless to try to even influence the market with one or two comments. For me, I only accept intrinsic value as the fair value. I believe Supermax has higher intrinsic value than Kossan. Even though Kossan is displaying statistical cheapness. Like Warren Buffet said, statistical cheapness is not a good indicator. I feel when valuing a company, we have to go beyond now profit measures. Supermax has better ability to increase its future profits than Kossan, higher intrinsic value
Meanwhile, Topglove and Harta has their respective advantage that is reflected in the share price. Kossan also has its advantage, it is trying to diversify from medical gloves into industrial gloves like what some of u said. But this doesn't looks like a fantastic strategy. Medical gloves usage has so much more potential. It is not really an advantage either, just a profit stabilisation measure.
Unlike Harta and Topglove and Supermax. But Supermax obviously has the best advantage
I think it is more likely to make around 1.8 billion. But in the unlikely event it make only 1.3, it doesn't really matter because Supermax deserves a high premium to Kossan. I can no longer see things from pre-pandemic perspective, now Supermax leading Kossan. Supermax has already surpassed Kossan, so it will always command much higher price.
Hahaha, so details analys here. However the most important and crucial for fundamental is the founder of the group. Kossan, Harta and TG is the top pick, but TG tan sri chg off late after he in the focus during pandemic.
Harta latest quarter profit is below expectation but many investors of Harta said good result ... it looks like many r ridiculous.... I need to give less comments for 5 days..:)
Supermax will not post PAT of more than 1.5 bil; below 1.3 bil is equal to below expectation... The thought of Super n Topglove reaching her peak in quarterly profit should be truth .... Those goreng careplus r brave speculators, they r gamblers ... :)
If your point is in 2022, super producing more gloves than Kossan, maybe the only point U can argue n support Super ... In 2022, Thailand no.1 n top 2 of China will eat into market share of top 4 glove manufacturers of Malaysia ...
Not too worried about Gayland. Only worried about China. Most Gayland companies were losing money before this. Even Sri Trang was struggling and barely break even. Most important thing about glove business is who can manufacturer at cheapest cost. Malaysian big 4 are so cost efficient that they are selling at the cost of most glove makers. But the pandemic gave these formerly garbage companies large treasure chest to fight Big 4. I feel the pandemic is also a curse to the Big 4.
Big 4 will face a prolong battle if the other glove makers decide to grab market share. I don't know why are big 4 not expanding more aggressively, should discourage competition. What u think?
If I say more, those below average retail investors may report me; China always can pump up production 2 times faster than Malaysian manufacturers ( they have capital n higher entrepreneurship , better than rich businessmen of Malaysia)... Topglove will expand faster than other top 3 but Topglove need time to address labour issues n the US taking time to lift the ban... Harta looks like emphasise too much in research n only posted 1.1 bil( I thought at least 1.3 bil ) n got some said her plants only running 60-63% during the latest quarter, feel doubt ....
Just read their briefing slides. I think it the low utilisation rate is due to plant closure. Its sales volume decreased drastically because of container shortage. I think they based their utilisation rate on sales volume rather than production volume which is rather odd.
While Kossan managed to arrange containers for shipping n above average utilisation rate, Harta had performed worse off than Kossan in last quarter... For Topglove, they having the highest Covid 19 cases in their plants ... The act of balance n cautious mode to lower the Covid 19 cases in own plants r basic needs for all the glove manufacturers in Malaysia ...
Read the Harta briefing , didn’t mention closure of how many days or shortage of container ships until what extent , the plant utilisation only at 64%; but from info , both Harta n Kossan can post higher profit in next quarter whereas Super quarterly profit already peak in latest quarter...
Kossan will be higher share price than Supermax in 1-2 month time ; market cap will be at par with Super within 4-5 months ... Harta too rich valuation if they not capable enough to arrange shipments, it looks like analysts think too high about Harta.... But it looks like even Harta or Kossan with higher cautious mode can be get into the problem of plants being closed down due to Covid ...
supermx dun touch at this moment, 2 more weeks to go for reconsider for the klci 30 indexes, mrdiy overtake supermx. supermx face sell down due to fund starting dumping, they know insider news.
I think is 6 months or 9 months ; not more than 1 year... The largest share holders may use share price to gain or get loans or something, I don’t know ....
Harta being dragged down by plant Covid n below average plant utilisation rate plus some shipment problems , Harta next quarter profit should go up .... Kossan if as cautious as this quarter n no kena Covid at plants , should have higher profit in next quarter.... Super investors should find out why revenue also drop a bit n whether the ASP already started to drop in March quarter n the management mentioned about ASP dropping for 15-20% ( for coming quarter or what ? )....
Supermax is garbage and they know that. So they want to save own reputation by dragging down the entire glove sector. Fortunately, it can only affect perception. Value is still there, just not in Lousymax
