F@@L愚人's comment on PARKSON. All Comments

F@@L愚人
45 Like · Reply
Below 0.2 is Good time to accumulate for long term shareholder…

Do your own homework before you buy.

Hahaha
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cheng
I hope it will not be higher than Q1'23, xiao ming :) Will be nice to have FY2023 annual net profit to be in the range of 50M to 60M. Logically, footfall traffic in Q4 is higher than Q3 but will not be higher than Q1/Q2 due to CNY and Raya festive seasons; same for both Malaysia and China seasonally. However, China ops have 20% segment contributed by rental income and you would have seen the results from China whereby Q3'23 saw a whopping increase of ~70% in terms of rental income yoy. The rental income segment helps to reduce volatility in its earnings :) And there are Parkson Jiangxi in Nanchang County, Jiangxi Province, expected to be opened in the fourth quarter of 2023 and Mianyang Fulin Parkson Plaza Co. Ltd. to open a supermarket in the fourth quarter of 2023. It will take time for Parkson Jiangxi to be fully occupied by tenants and for these two new commercial stores to mature in terms of sales; safe to assume one year. Q1'24 results could be higher than Q1'23 as I presumed these two new assets will start to generate income from rental and sales of goods perspectives. As for lease/liabilities, you would have seen the change/impact when mfrs 16 was implemented back in FY2020; the change from straight-line operating expenses to front-loaded expenses; for the better if you will. In laymen terms, gearing may seems to go up/heavily indebted and EPS to go down (beginning of new lease) due to the front-loaded expenses. It messes up the "financial ratios" but indirectly forcing mgmt to be prudent / making difficult decisions as we have seen - closure of Indonesia/Vietnam ops, cost rationalization, efficiency drives, omnichannel sales and etc that resulted in the results that we have in FY2023 so far. Just my opinions, could be wrong. Seems a bit lengthy and hopefully it helps.
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1 Like · 2 weeks · translate
Auditor Consultant
the result should be gradually improving from q to q

don't worry

slowly and steadily the price go up

from my retail counterparties

they said improvement from time to time.

so

parkson

Ini masalah
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Like · 2 weeks · translate
cheng
Indeed, AC. From the external headwinds perspective, it takes at least 6 to 9 months to see the effect of the measures announced by the China government in Oct'23 and Jan'24; spending on infrastructure, economic growth and increasing liquidity for banks which in turn will positively impact the consumer consumptions. Measures put in place by the mgmt that made Malaysia achieving 100% of the stores profitable will be applicable to China too. Barring any unforeseen circumstances, FY2024 will be better than FY2023 making it 2nd consecutive profitable year for Parkson.
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Like · 2 weeks · translate
Auditor Consultant
慢就是快
慢就是快

我说了嘛

CLMT 飞了

等parkson 表演了

肯定会上升的
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Like · 2 weeks · translate
Auditor Consultant
果然继续上升,龟速度很好

慢就是快

一步一脚印,慢慢上
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Like · 2 weeks · translate
cheng
FY2015: Total stores 126, total revenue 3.7b, annual net profit of 46.6M and eps 4.4; the last profitable year for Parkson. FY2023 cum to date: Total stores 78, ctd revenue 2.4b, ctd annual net profit 42.2M and eps 3.68; less is more :) Q4'23 results will be released in 3 weeks time and barring any unforeseen circumstances, FY2023 return to black journey will be on par / better than FY2015; laying the foundation for better FY2024. Manage it well until then :)
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6 Like · 2 weeks · translate
F@@L愚人
New branch in China

Not bad…


南昌百盛莲塘店华丽开幕,邂逅邻里美好生活新篇章

http://xhslink.com/94QzaB
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1 Like · 2 weeks · translate
cheng
Thanks, F@@L. Most of the outlets seems to be fully occupied by tenants; a good sign for rental income. Q1'24 performance will be interesting :)
Like · 2 weeks · translate
ong whey
其实要看中国百盛这个季度的表现如何,如果好就是马来西亚的百盛也是好
Like · 2 weeks · translate
Auditor Consultant
肯定百花齐放,280了,百盛加油啊

各位也加油了

农历新年买衣服,大家可以去parkson 支持自己的investee

support parkson and buy more spend more in parkson
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1 Like · 2 weeks · translate
F@@L愚人
衣服来说
百盛自家品牌 7dayz 真的很潮流质量又好!
1 Like · 2 weeks · translate
Auditor Consultant
我的Clmt 飞上天空了

parkson 的好戏快来了
2 Like · 2 weeks · translate
F@@L愚人
南昌的高端消费潜力!
C南昌武商劳力士2023年(实际开业时间8个月)
销售业绩破亿,成为该商场首个破亿的品牌!
G就在2022年年底,南昌百盛宣布劳力士销售业绩破8000万!在2023年百盛店庆期间,劳力士还提前完成销售目标,这个目标有多少还不得而知,但可以肯定的是在武商店的分流压力下仍然可能保持较好的业绩,这足见南昌高端腕表市场的潜力!
短短一年时间,从城市单店8000万到双店超1.5
亿(预估),完成double的增长,加上近期路易威登快闪的超预期热销,更加证明之前江西的高端消费外流严重!!
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1 Like · 2 weeks · translate
cheng
Thanks for sharing, F@@L :) A good reference and safe to assume one year for new stores to mature :) FY2024 will be interesting and looking forward to it to be better than FY2023!
Like · 2 weeks · translate
cheng
Sales value of Wholesale & Retail Trade recorded RM143.9 billion in December 2023, grew 4.8 per cent year-on-year (Chart 1). The positive growth was contributed by all sub-sectors, namely Motor Vehicles 5.9 per cent, Retail Trade 5.0 per cent, and Wholesale Trade 4.4 per cent. Meanwhile, for month-on-month comparison, sales value increased 1.0 per cent. Sales of Retail Trade registered a growth of 5.0 per cent as compared to December 2022. Among the groups that contributed to this expansion were Retail Sale of Food, Beverages & Tobacco in Specialised Stores (9.9%), Retail Sale Via Stalls & Markets (6.6%), Retail Sale in Non-specialised Stores (6.3%), Retail Sale of Other Household Equipment in Specialised Stores (5.9%), and Retail Sale of
Other Goods in Specialised Stores (5.8%). Compared with November 2023, sales of this sub-sector increased 1.8 per cent.
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Like · 1 week · translate
cheng
Overall a strong Nov and Dec for retail trade from sales number perspective for Malaysia; same goes to non-specialised stores performance which continues to record a mid to high single digit growth. Let's look at how Parkson Malaysia performance for Q4'23 from the PRA results that will be released soon.
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Like · 1 week · translate
Jia Xian
Hi cheng, do you foresee any impairment from Vietnam or China in Q4 or Q1 next fy?
Like · 1 week · translate
ong whey
Parkson Malaysia performance for Q4’23 you should look for parkson china performance
1 Like · 1 week · translate
cheng
First thing first, impairment is part of good accounting practices, Jia Xian. Impairment should be recognised as and when there is a discrepancy between fair value of its cash generating unit versus the cost of disposal and value in use; carrying value versus recoverable amount if you will. So, there will be impairment from time to time and i believed your question is whether will there be any negative surprises as in huge impairment; specifically impairment from PPE, ROU assets and intangible assets from Vietnam and China. In general, if there are closures of stores, you will see impairment to certain extent. For Vietnam, the Group has regarded the subsidiaries in the Republic of Vietnam as a separate legal entity to which the resources whether financial or otherwise, is limited to the capital contribution which the Group has participated in. The cash resource is the only available working capital that the subsidiaries can depend upon for its continual operations. As at the reporting date, a bank account of a subsidiary, Parkson Vietnam Co Ltd was frozen since 21 March 2022 under the court order instituted by the landlord. The group's maximum potential exposure resulting from the voluntary bankruptcy of Parkson Vietnam will therefore be limited to its capital contribution to Parkson Vietnam. PRA had recognised full impairment loss on its capital contribution in Parkson Vietnam in its audited financial statements. So, not expecting any huge impairment losses coming from Vietnam.
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2 Like · 1 week · translate
cheng
Indeed, ong whey. I am referring to Parkson Malaysia stores which is part of PRA while Parkson China stores is part of PRG. Strong retail trade data for non-specialised stores in Nov and Dec should have a positive impact on Parkson Malaysia stores sales; Q4'23 should be better than Q3'23 :)
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Like · 1 week · translate
ong whey
Wells i hope you are right haha
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F@@L愚人
止损,关店:



亲爱的顾客朋友:
兰州百盛自开业至今已走过15个年头,在经营过程中我们始终秉承“尽如您意”的服务理念。风雨同路,感恩有你,衷心感谢大家对兰州百盛近 15年来的关注、关怀与支持!
现因公司经营战略调整,我们不得不做出艰难的决定:兰州百盛将于 2024年2月29日闭店后停止营业。在此之前,我们依然会尽心尽力提供最好的服务,敬请大家安心购物。
聚散有时,珍重再会!
兰州时尚百盛商业有限公司
2024年1月29日
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2 Like · 1 week · translate
Matt Tan
新年之前我有一个朋友跟我说中国那里百盛的情况不是很理想,我也不知道对这里股价会不会有什么影响,所以到现在还只是放在watchlist 里。如果涨了算是没缘分,哈。如果下去的话,我才有机会看情况入手。
2 Like · 1 week · translate
CHONG HON LEONG
Ecomony in China is a bit worry, their people really spend wisely.
1 Like · 1 week · translate
cheng
Excellent news, F@@L :) becoming more efficient with less is more; higher profits if you will. We have seen Parkson Malaysia efficiencies drive which led to 100% of the stores profitable by Q1'23 where the inflection point for the store count is around 36 to 38 from 42 as of FY2019. For Parkson China, it has 44 stores as of FY2019 and 42 as of Q3'23. Upcoming AGM will be interesting whereby percentage of stores profitable in China as of Dec'23 will give a sneak preview of estimated inflection point for the store count in China. It was 40% as of Dec'22, hopefully 70% as of Dec'23. Looking forward to FY2024.
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2 Like · 1 week · translate
Matt Tan
Chong重点是,马股可以很奇怪,只要票收够了。什么东西都阻挡不了上涨。
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ong whey
这是真的,如果它要涨,亏钱都会上涨哈哈
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Matt Tan
马股有他奇葩的特性。。
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ong whey
也不能说奇葩吧,只能说我们市场太小,很容易被庄家操控。
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F@@L愚人
亏钱上,赚钱跌
短期可以是炒作➕预期

赚钱如果对比上季度没成长,也可以不起
亏钱,如果对比上季度亏少了,也可以起。

例子如百盛,在我开这个贴时候大约0.13 sen,然后业绩还是亏钱。 这段期间股价很多时候很静的成交量,久久被炒上来就那段时间成交量很高
我记得有一次在每季度亏钱和不稳定状态下,15 sen几天被炒到0.3
之后跌回0.14范围徘徊很久。


在来到AGM 管理层暗示业绩会好,第二天被炒上去0.185范围几天,然后跌下来0.15范围


过后陆续几个季度赚钱比较稳定,股价就算被炒高去0.39,之后也看不到它跌回去0.14范围或者0.2 sen 以下了。

说到最后,就看你几了解你买的股票。

干杯!
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1 Like · 1 week · translate
F@@L愚人
短期人为炒作一定有啦

我们只能跟着大环境

比如有人专门找被炒作股
有人的股就算被炒作也无动于衷。

比较长远来看,股票的本质还是回到她的变现能力。
毕竟抄家不会长期炒同一只股。
GENTING 很小的时候也许容易被操做,长期还是因为它赚钱所以那些以前持有的股东财富才升值,当然过程中他们也经历过云顶股价非理性被炒作的过程。
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Like · 1 week · translate
Matt Tan
我这些是做短期的,错过了买点就继续观察。当做功课。
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ong whey
如果是看技术面来说的话,图好像在做cup and handled形态,就是说会再回调然后直接拉升,这个只是我个人看法,不是买卖建议。买卖自负哈哈。
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Matt Tan
比较没有什么关注形态。都只是价格,前一轮有我的价位,我犹豫了。所以现在看看他能有什么表现。
Like · 1 week · translate
F@@L愚人
都可以
市场每个人都有自己的交易方法
就算短期长期方法着也可以产生分歧。

我有时候也会看看短期交易者comment … 看爽
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Like · 1 week · translate
Matt Tan
我喜欢看大佬们分析公司远景,很佩服你们的分析能力。
Like · 1 week · translate
F@@L愚人
其实都是吹水的

股票就是马后炮出来吹水

只是每个人吹的工具有别

哈哈哈
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Like · 1 week · translate
ong whey
至少我不会乱吹股价要上了叫大家赶快买,或是说股价要跌破了叫大家卖这种害人的脚。这里非常多这种仙家,所以我每次给出我的看法我都会说清楚先这只是我个人看法哈哈。
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ong whey
我比较喜欢马前炮哈哈,所以看看我说的handle过后拉升会不会出现了,错了也无所谓反正我也是发表看法吧了,也事先说清楚了只是我个人看法哈哈。
Like · 1 week · translate
拯救散户们
ong 这里兩个很厉害仙家废帝和ah choon wong
1 Like · 1 week · translate
F@@L愚人
哈哈哈! 众口难调

比如股价上你叫人快买
如果那人买了还是继续上上上
他还谢谢你。
如果上来,他买了不久跌,又是另一种说法。

同样是上了叫人买的开始
结果可以很大分别。


如果观察久,会发现股票要争论,每个人都是对的,只要拿一段时间股价出来,就可以支持各自论点。

哈哈哈
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1 Like · 1 week · translate
F@@L愚人
哇!拯救!好久不见你了!
恭喜发财!
Like · 1 week · translate
ong whey
Choon wong我懂,废帝是?
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拯救散户们
恭喜发财 fool兄 好久没来 那几个吹水捞还在 哈哈哈
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拯救散户们
废帝 fatty
哈哈哈
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cheng
You can always dig deeper into your initial assumption of China economy and consumer spending, Chong Hon Leong :) In Malaysia, there is the DOSM that reports the economic data such as retail trade data, CPI data and further details such as non-specialised stores retail trade data which Parkson contributed to. In China, you can retrieve these data from National Bureau of Statistics of China :) While Malaysia data is lagging by two months, China's data is just one month lag. Data from both departments are not showing any signs of deterioration; retail trade data for department stores showing mid to high single digit growth yoy if you will. If the data is not good enough, you can have a look at some ETF related to China retailers too. Looking at the trends, my personal opinion is that worst is over for the retail landscape in China; it has bottomed out since the start of pandemic which is 3 years ago. From there on, you can add-ons with the business directions/changes within the company over the last 3 years. By then, you would have sufficient information to assist in your own decision making. Just my opinions, could be wrong. Hope it helps :)
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Like · 1 week · translate
ong whey
果然开始回调了,来吧做一个pull back形成handle然后拉上,看这个形态可以成立吗,如果真的可以拉上就是典型的cup and handle patterns haha
3 Like · 1 week · translate
cheng
Looking forward to Q1'24 performance which could be higher than Q1'23.
Like · 5 days · translate
ong whey
Lol Q4’23 haven’t out you already looking forward to Q1’24 haha
1 Like · 5 days · translate
F@@L愚人
Ong 兄可以多分享技术面在这里o
谢谢你
Like · 5 days · translate
ong whey
你们也是可以多多分享,大家互相学习,只要不是那种一直叫大家买或是卖扮仙家的那种人都可以分享看法哈哈。
3 Like · 5 days · translate
cheng
Yes it is forward looking for all my positions in different stocks. In fact, I am looking forward for FY2024 to be better than FY2023 for Parkson barring any unforeseen circumstances, ong whey.
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ong whey
Lets hope for the best mr cheng haha
1 Like · 5 days · translate
cheng
Sure, ong whey :) Have faith in your own analysis too - the cup and handle pattern. I am in the opinion cup and handle formed and waiting for breakout above the neckline :)
2 Like · 5 days · translate
cheng
The board of directors (the “Board”) of Parkson Retail Group Limited (the “Company”, and
together with its subsidiaries, joint venture and associated companies, the “Group”) hereby
announces that a meeting of the Board of the Company will be held on Monday, 26 February 2024 for the purposes of, among other things, considering and approving the final results of the Group for the financial year ended 31 December 2023 and its publication and transacting any other business.
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Like · 3 days · translate
F@@L愚人
after the AGM, then result will out for HK’s Parkson …
Like · 3 days · translate
cheng
Indeed, F@@L. PHB results should follow suit in the same week.
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ong whey
Yes laa the handle is forming now, please closed 285 or below hehe
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ong whey
@cheng the pull back is happening now, now is hope the break out will happen otherwise the cup and handle pattern fails haha
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Matt Tan
为什么我只是看到盘整,而你看到杯柄呢?
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Yong
我也是奇怪哪来的杯柄,这技术图每个人看都不一样,哈哈
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Matt Tan
yong对,各花入各眼,每个人都有不同的方式,看的也不一样。
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cheng
Sounds like a good plan, ong whey. have faith in your own plans. Cheers
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cheng
Indeed it is not easy to identify it for such a consolidation pattern that you are seeing currently, Matt Tan and Yong.
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Matt Tan
cheng,价格会回到当初我miss掉的位置也不一定。我又不想赌业绩,看来,我有可能会错过这次涨过0.3的机会。呵
Like · 2 days · translate
ong whey
看不到不要紧,反正我只是在验证我自己的看法吧了,我也没有叫人买票或是丢票。哈哈
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F@@L愚人
每个方法都会产生不一样的看法,再产生买卖双方。
Like · 2 days · translate
Matt Tan
ong我没有恶意,什么分析都好,最重要自己能赚钱就可以了。交易就是要五花八门,价格才会浮动,全部人做同样的事,那才叫恶心。哈哈哈
Like · 2 days · translate
Matt Tan
Fool兄,对。。。这才叫市场。有缘在这里讨论,至少大家的看法都差不多一致,大家一起赚。。
Like · 2 days · translate
ong whey
Matt没问题哈哈,现在是希望股价如果股价开始回涨突破碗形的话那就是形态成立了,那是很强的后期看涨,不过要成功才可以,当然这只是我的看法,如果任何人打算买入,记得买卖自负哈哈。
1 Like · 2 days · translate
F@@L愚人
是的。。股票意见分歧很正常
最重要气氛温和。。。
哈哈哈
Like · 2 days · translate
cheng
What you can do is to identify the characteristics of cup and handle patterns first before looking at the chart., Matt. Else, we will see what we want to see :) My limited understanding of cup and handle characteristics are as follow: (1) It is formed after a period of advance (2) as the name of pattern says - it looks like a cup with handle. hence, the cup is like a bowl and the top part of the cup is what we call it neckline; connecting both side of the cup. followed by retracement which forms the handle. (3) the handle typically retraced 1/3 of the depth of the cup. sometimes it retraced more but seldom go beyond 1/2 the depth. If it retraced more, it is no longer the handle for cup and handle but going into rectangle per se :) (4) You would expect the volume in between both end of the cup/bowl will be low and higher at both end of the cup/bowl. Using these characteristics, you should be able to identify it.
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Like · 2 days · translate
Matt Tan
cheng, 我曾经试过很深入去研究形态,指标等等。。。最后因为懒惰的关系,放弃了全部。。
Like · 2 days · translate
cheng
Its alright, Matt. There is no right or wrong. Stick to the one that you are comfortable with and as long as it is making money for you, just keep repeating it until the method stops working.
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Matt Tan
现在蛮舒服的,少做很多,以前会手痒,现在可以套利了再慢慢找机会。有时候一个礼拜都没下单。轻松很多。
Like · 2 days · translate
ong whey
Matt 3年不出手,出手吃3年吗?哈哈
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Matt Tan
ong没有啦,我这些事少做少错。你都知道马股的pattern。。。哈哈
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ong whey
如果我预测亏损你会打我吗?哈哈哈哈
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F@@L愚人
我预测最差
我不玩了

哈哈哈
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tan xian kai
要问问我们的大神auditor
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Matt Tan
我只是知道parkson是卖东西的,业绩那些我不知道,公司赚不赚钱我也不知道。
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ong whey
Parkson是百货公司
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Caleb Lau
Fool兄,你认为马币疲软会是parkson的advantages吗,毕竟parkson大部分的生意都在中国。
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Jojo
下个星期就知道了。多数是赚钱。这个时候庄家在拉低票又补票。
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cheng
I think anything outside the range of 7.5M to 11.5M net profit for Q4'23 is worth noting; both extreme ends :)
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F@@L愚人
Caleb,我没去看汇率对他的影响。
但是马币疲软了很多年。
百盛的问题不是马币差

当然,我得空会去读读资料
其实她们是有提到汇率的。只是我没在意忘了
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Like · 2 days · translate
cheng
There is negligible impact from forex perspective, F@@L. Its natural hedge if you will. Unhedged financial assets such as deposits and cash balances will not have impact too if the changes are within 2%.
1 Like · 2 days · translate
F@@L愚人
Thanks Cheng…
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cheng
You are welcome, F@@L. Significant impact for interest rates change though :) If interest rates starts going down, we are talking about ~15M for every 100 basis point; interest expense from the borrowings will go down together with the lower interest rates.
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Like · 2 days · translate
Caleb Lau
Thx Cheng and Fool for the replies.
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cheng
You are welcome, Caleb.
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cheng
Looks like PRA results should be released by this evening it seems.
Like · Yesterday · translate
ong whey
Are you sure mr cheng? Let’s hope for the best
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ong whey
The chart wise the handle already form so now it cannot go lower or if go lower must pull back immediately it not the pattern will fails haha
Like · Yesterday · translate
cheng
ahh... you are looking at the mini rounding turns between Jan and Feb of this year. I am actually looking at medium to longer trends which is from Apr'21 to Aug'23; a complete cup with neckline at 0.300/0.305. Following the characteristics will leads to handle that should be formed at 0.245 which is completed by Dec'23 :)
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Like · Yesterday · translate
ong whey
Ah i see, yes im looking for the mini cup haha
Like · Yesterday · translate
cheng
All is well then, ong whey. thanks for sharing.
Like · Yesterday · translate
cheng
extracted from AEON's latest Q4 financial performance review; higher seasonal footfall traffic compared to Q3 - For the current quarter, the Company registered a total revenue of RM1,033.3 million, 8.1% higher compared to the preceding quarter of RM955.9 million. Retail business recorded revenue at RM859.0 million, is 8.7% higher compared to preceding quarter of RM789.9 million. The increase in revenue is mainly due to higher consumer spending on festive and year-end sales.
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2 Like · 23 hours · translate
cheng
PRA results has just been released in SGX :) Total comprehensive income of SGD$7.9M for Q4'23 compared to SGD$3.3M for Q3'23. Doubled the net profit compared to Q3'23; seasonally stronger if you will.
5 Like · 23 hours · translate