Chew Chin's comment on HIBISCS. All Comments

Chew Chin
2 Like · Reply
OPEC cut the oil production deeper. Any sifu can share smtg?
cheng
what do you think, Chew Chin? will be good to exchange opinions and not sure whether there will be sifu willing to share here for learning purposes.
Like · 4 years · translate
Tzyh Cheng
the oil cut seems like can't move the price higher. still range btwn 62 to 63. perhaps the market still worry about the trade deal which will affect the demand of oil? good company with healthy balance sheet just the price of oil is volatile. will monitor closely.
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david
In 200lots at 885. As usual, will drop to 85 if follow my trade pattern.
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cheng
wow, David. 200 lots starting position. that entry price of yours is close to the price of equity funding carried out back in 2015. new shares issued at the price of 67 cents, 85 cents and 88 cents.
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cheng
tzyh cheng, thanks for the sharing. the oil cut is an extension to it's existing cut that originally should last until Mar and now possible extending to year end by additional 500k barrels per day. while the opec and opec+ has agreed to do so, there is the U.S. shale oil the new largest oil producer, Brazil and Norway still. trade war impact means potential slowing economy and leads to lower demand for oil.
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cheng
imo - this is how it works. oil price up, upstream o&g capex goes up as it's profitable to explore and drill more, good selling price, improves cash flow, and production growth. the opposite happens if oil price goes down. Profit margins depends on the difference between the selling of oil price per barrel versus the $/barrels of oil equivalent (boe). Hence, the impact to profitability and hence improving share price is not immediate. if it is immediate, it's speculative in nature.
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cheng
closer to hibiscus, the company has been really diligent in keeping it's balance sheet healthy and not using debt to finance explorations but rather equity funding. the surplus cash can be used to acquire new assets instead of traditional explorations. the company has set a target of producing 20k barrels of oil per day (bpd) and 100M barrels (mmbl) of proven and probable oil reserves by 2021. That's not an easy task as it's capital intensive to achieve it. Hence, imo - div can wait first.
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cheng
currently, Hibiscus $/boe is at $20 in avg from both it's Anasuria and North Sabah assets. if the oil price goes higher next year, it will improve it's margins significantly. and increase capex to achieve the 2021 target. the bpd has grown from 3.5k in 2015 to 8.4k last year vs target of 20k; which means new assets is required. the oil reserves is progressing really well > 100 mmbl; as of 2019 2P reserve is 50 mmbl and 2C reserve is 71 mmbl. Just my opinions, could be wrong. hope it helps.
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Jason
Leave a message here for learning. Thanks for the detailed information Cheng.
1 Like · 4 years · translate
david
Heading south to 85....?
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Tzyh Cheng
hmm any chance to collect cheap?
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david
1 week after I bought. Normally will drop another 5 to 10% after I enter. Price will kept increase 5 to 10% after I dispose. Proven for past 5 deal.
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cheng
I am waiting to add at 0.76 but not sure it will go to that low. Will just wait for now.
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Leong Wey Chyuan
Warrant drop until mother cannot recognize
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Tzyh Cheng
David will u avg down if it drop tat much?
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Tzyh Cheng
Cheng, the oil price seems like won't rally higher even Saudi promised to have deeper cut next yr. will u still adding at 0.76 given the price of oil still trading below 65usd?
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Tzyh Cheng
Leong luckily I sold all at 0.25 a few months ago. when can this bunga bloom again? very tortured when seeing other o&g company trading higher. I know can't compare upstream with downstream company. but u know how tat feel. haiz
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2 Like · 4 years · translate
cheng
tzyh cheng, yes I will add :)
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Tzyh Cheng
let's see we have luck to get tat price or not :D
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cheng
alright, tzyh cheng. I am just adding position according to diff level margins of safety as long as hibiscus maintain its clean balance sheet and healthy reserve replacement ratio > 1. initiated position at 30%, next is 40% (0.76) and followed by 50% (0.63).
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david
I invest is base on the company performance. The production cost at 20 dollar with 60plus oil price. I factor in 20dolllar for maintenance and others misc. Still got 50% (20 profit of 40 dollar cost)
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david
Most important is.. I like those company strategy on kept bullets, reward, reserve during good time. Expanding during market crash.
1 Like · 4 years · translate
david
I did saw some company especially plantation. They expanding by buying land, process plant when CPO at high price. Do nothing during price crash
1 Like · 4 years · translate
Tzyh Cheng
I will only enter when the oil turn bullish or the share price is below 80 sen. the trend is important. haha
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Tzyh Cheng
yes David. I like hibiscs management too. they really did a great job in managing the cash flow and most important the production cost. it really amazed me by 0 borrowing and positive cash flow.
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david
Common statement: FA for share selection, follow by TA when can enter = mother is female
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Tzyh Cheng
haha yes David. but my TA is soso only. so I will keep monitor oil price until it turn bullish. I don't mind my entry price is higher as long as the trend is there.
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Darren Lee
i think hibiscus will come back, just the matter of time, good future prospect net cash company.
2 Like · 4 years · translate
david
Moving or 1 day show?
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Benny Money Lari
Shark hunting while 0.865 ... just wait for oil price boom only.
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cheng
let's see whether can sustain at 0.88 first. :)
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david
Should be need to stand at 89
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Leong Wey Chyuan
The wc really ggwp
1 Like · 4 years · translate
david
Sold 100lots at 93...retain some cash 1st for any other potential arise
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cheng
congrats, David. your avg is much lower now and you are in good position to ride it or add if opportunity arises. really pro :)
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Tzyh Cheng
Cheng, how about u? still holding your lots tight?
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david
Thanks Cheng, 0 cash position before that. Too risk, I will use up that for blue-chip as those fund will perform window dressing next week onward. Try get some for Christmas and CNY $$
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cheng
wow, David. margins account. have faith in your plans. tzyh cheng, yes it is. not letting it go. hope to add still but will wait. will let it go if the fundamentals changes that may imp.act it's financials. until then, just monitor and follow the company's development. after all, it has clean balance sheets and just need to monitor the external headwinds.
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En Lai C
一步一脚印,大师兄慢慢来
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david
WTH, so fast trend down?
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Chung Lik Ng
not down trend,short term trader taking profit,after that will up again
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Benny Money Lari
Look like Yes going up. Trader who trap around rm1+, they will cut lose and run.
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Chang Chon Ket
Brent oil price up to 65++
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Vinz_mafia
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