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This is temporary rebound made by shorties or big shark for a trap. The price will keep dropping due to full refund of ticket, less revenue for Q1 2020, bribe and money laundery case, transmit of coronavirus where investors fear of virus peak period which is more than average 10,000 death cases based on historical virus data such as China sars, Africa Ebora, Brazil Zika, Mexico Swine Flu, etc. Please reply if you agree or disagree with my statement above.
@Leng Zai - Based on revenue recognition accounting standard, the revenue only can be recognised when the service is rendered (flight departure date). Mostly, the passengers booked a flight ticket a few month earlier, therefore AA lost the future revenue (FYE2020) from customer who have bought in 2019. As a conclusion, the financial report for FYE2020 is badly affected.
Only 1 cent up. I wouldn't even call this a rebound. More like controlled buying and selling by big players whoever they are. One thing for sure. Sentiments has transitioned from full panic to mixed. Btw, low cost ticket cancellation normally partial or no refund right? A matter between sales not made or sales without needing to render actual services or sales deferred right?
Quite obvious some big players already rushing in. While the herd is still waiting and juggling between fear and optimist + logic. Knowing their networking that span from Charles Bronson upto the premier League and F1 circles, they could be the very wolves doing the hunting. For small flies like me, selective averaging in small amount will be key. No need to fear of losing out, no need worry if it drop further. Resource must be deep lor. Then let the wolves do the job. Just my personal thots.
@U Titus & Mohd Firdaus - The sudden high volume that made share price up and down significantly, resulting in huge volatile, usually this is what we call short buy and sell. If you’re long term investor, pls be patient and wait for the virus peak period (average 10,000 global death cases). No matter how good the listed companies are, their share price will be pulled down by global virus, as you can refer to historical chart during global virus. That time let see how much reserve that Malaysia Bank Negara can save Malaysia share market.
Got your point, Steven. Very valid indeed. And yes, I could be taking more risks based on the more improved and more transparent handling of Wuhan virus compared to SARS. And the infected only 0.01% or lesser of the whole China population. Healthy infected person will recover. If the Malaysia cases already have one recover, I thinks it is the turnaround sign. It shows effected period from infection to recovery 3-4 weeks. This is reality data right?
Bribery in 2014 to 2016. Financially already factored in their books if it really touched the company funds. Reputation wise in a worst case scenario the two execs will be fined individually or even jailed based on their personal capacity. I think AA took the right action by already distancing themselves from the two goons. It really goes back to individual risk taking and way of reading the fundamentals whether are they really affected? And reading between the lines.
The virus very affect the tourism industry.
But the biggest impact is flight.
Even now the oil price is low, but still no profit can take.
Still need to pay the rent for the airplane. Now AA still have how many cash can support.
Now also have bribery case.
If Conviction requires big huge fine.
@Mohd Firdaus & Min Kuan - Virus wise is very subjective which is beyond our control. The daily number of infected patients, recovered patients and death cases are very important for us to analyse whether the situation is going worst or turning back to a hope. The Coronavirus is an advanced virus compared to previous global virus where the experts fear without symptom, the coronavirus may spread (New York Times News).
Today Asia market index up because China today announced cut tariff on $75billion of US products. The comment given by Tun M today is his personal comment or view. Nothing to do with the decision of MACC related to AA bribe case.
Reading between the lines is tun m directing macc to pull back. And Airbus case is a settlement and not even a conviction. Any Airbus exec jailed? And if to investigate, it is the two personal dealings between Airbus and Caterham on the alleged sponsorship. Legally AA is not even a party of significant interest. It is actually AAX. So want to logic or panic? You tell me. My game is logic and risk affordability. And to-date 800 people have fully recovered in China in a week.
Disclaimer: My comments are just personal thoughts as a contrarian. Hope we can celebrate the differing views. That's what investor are, right? Chill and Lit!
@Mohd Firdaus - Let SPRM to investigate the bribe case as we have limited info on this matter so we unable to conclude. Based on CNBC news as of Thursday morning, there are 565 death cases (Wedn morning 492: CNN News) and 28,000 (Wedn morning 24,500 CNN news) infected cases. Based on figure above, the death and infected cases have increased by approximately 14% in one day. Do you think that 800 (2.8%) recovered patients are considered a lot based on 28,000 infected patients, assuming your data is accurate?
Coronavirus number infected will keep increasing for sure. But did you check the rate of new cases increased from day to day? It is the underlying data that matters. Btw the foreign funds are back.
@Mohd Firdaus - If the foreign funds are enough to support economic, Bank Negara is not required to announce lower interest rate. If you want to know how fear of investors on Coronavirus, you may refer to US Market news. When US Market down, mostly Malaysia Market will down too. Last time WHO announced this is coronavirus outbreak which is not very serious yet. I believe the world market will drop significantly when more and more people are infected which is beyond their control then WHO might announce this is a global virus.
Bro. I think I just let the price do the talking. Cashed in oredi anyway. Sometimes over-pessimism make us failed to see the logic. This is where contrarian will come in while the herd is still in fear. Nice discussion anyway. Best of luck bro.
@Mohd Firdaus - I also hope that you can earn enough and run before it’s too late. I believe the share price now is definitely pushed up by big shark to eat those greedy investors. Good luck bro
