Gold keeps near 1-1/2-week top as safe-haven draw remains intact

TheEdge Thu, Jan 21, 2016 12:41pm - 8 years View Original


MANILA (Jan 21): Gold stayed near a 1-1/2-week high on Thursday in Asia, its safe-haven appeal apparently intact amid investor caution that a recovery in equities and oil prices could be fleeting.

Bullion has benefited from the risk-averse sentiment that has dragged equities and oil to multi-year lows and pushed investors towards assets considered a safe store of value.

Asian stocks and crude oil prices regained some lost ground on Thursday, but sentiment remained fragile.

It's no surprise that gold has edged higher along with other safe-havens like the Japanese yen, because "the risk aversion story is here", said Barnabas Gan, analyst at OCBC Bank in Singapore.

Spot gold was little changed at US$1,099.26 an ounce by 0256 GMT. It touched US$1,109.20 on Wednesday, its highest since Jan 8.

U.S. gold for February delivery slipped 0.6% to US$1,099.60 an ounce.

The metal has found resistance around US$1,100 as the threat of further U.S. interest rate increases and a stronger U.S. dollar suggest limited upside potential.

OCBC's Gan sees gold at US$950 by year-end. "This view is very much underpinned by our expectations for the Fed rate hike to occur three more times this year," he said.

The Federal Reserve hiked rates for the first time in nearly a decade in December and Gan believes a firm U.S. economy would warrant further rate increases, strengthening the dollar and curbing gold's appeal.

But expectations of an immediate U.S. interest rate hike in March diminished, after consumer prices unexpectedly fell in December, offering signs of weak inflation.

BMI Research, part of ratings agency Fitch, also expects gold to fall below US$1,000 due to the additional U.S. rate hikes and a resilient U.S. economy.

"However, we see growing risk of disappointing U.S. economic growth. Should the Fed be forced to pause or even backtrack on rate hikes, US$1,200/oz would look a likely upside target for gold in 2016," BMI said in a report.

Spot platinum was flat at US$822 an ounce after falling to a fresh 2008 low of US$809.85 on Wednesday. Palladium gained 0.3% to US$494 per ounce and silver slipped 0.2% to US$14.14.

Johnson Matthey lifted its estimate of last year's platinum market deficit, after a surge in Japanese bar investment late in the year, though it cut its expectations for the palladium market shortfall.

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