The Week Ahead: Attention on Zahid’s graft trial, IPI, regional monetary policy decisions, CPI data

TheEdge Mon, Apr 10, 2023 05:00pm - 11 months View Original


The trial of Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi on 47 graft, criminal breach of trust and money laundering charges will continue at the High Court on Monday (April 10) before Judge Datuk Collin Lawrence Sequerah. Zahid had been ordered to enter his defence.

The trial of member of parliament for Muar Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman will also continue at the High Court before Judicial Commissioner Datuk Azhar Abdul Hamid.

On the economic front, the Department of Statistics Malaysia will be releasing on Tuesday the Industrial Production Index for February, which is forecast to grow at 2.8% year on year (y-o-y), according to Bloomberg. In January, the IPI growth moderated to 1.8% from 2.9% the preceeding month.

Across the Causeway, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) will release its Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) together with the advance 1Q2023 gross domestic product (GDP) estimate by the Ministry of Trade & Industry (MTI) on Friday.

In an April 6 report, UOB Global Economics & Markets Research senior economist Alvin Liew said he expects MAS to tighten policy further in April via another higher re-centring of the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate policy mid-point.

“Admittedly, our [expectation of] further tightening is now lower due to turmoil in the US and European banking sectors in recent weeks [although] potential upside pressures on crude oil prices will continue to tilt the bias towards tightening,” said Liew. He projected a 0.6% y-o-y contraction in Singapore’s GDP, while Bloomberg’s median estimate stood at 1.1% y-o-y.

Singapore’s markets, which were closed on April 7 for Good Friday, as were those of Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, the Philippines, India and Indonesia, will resume business operations on Monday. On the same day, Singapore’s parliament will reconvene for its second session.

Hong Kong will get an extended holiday with Easter Monday on April 10, the same day the Philippines will be closed for Araw Ng Kagitingan (The Day of Valor), while Thailand will close for the Songkran festival on Thursday and Friday.

The Bank of Korea (BoK) will also be releasing its monetary policy decision on Friday. Of five economists polled in an April 6 Bloomberg survey, four expected the BoK to keep its seven-day repurchase agreement rate unchanged at 3.5%; the other economist expected BoK to raise the rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%.

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) deputy governor Michele Bullock will be part of a panel discussion at the Western Economics Association International (WEAI) Conference Monetary Panel in Melbourne, Australia, on Wednesday (April 12).

Key Asia-Pacific data will include China’s and India’s March CPI on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. Bloomberg estimates a 1.1% y-o-y increase from 1% in February for China and a 5.8% y-o-y hike from 6.44% in February for India.

Other key data for China include its March M2 money supply from April 9 to 15 and March trade data on April 13, which will coincide with Australia’s release of its March employment report.

Bloomberg expects to see an improved unemployment rate of 3.6% for March in Australia compared with 3.5% in February.

After a quiet start due to Easter, the US corporate earnings reporting season will kick off with 524 US companies, of which 11 are S&P 500 firms.

Major and regional US banks will be reporting their results from April 13 onwards.

People will also be looking out for the March Labour Market Report on April 7, the March CPI on April 12, initial jobless claims (for the week ending April 8) on April 13 as well as March advance retail sales and industrial production on April 14.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is the only G7 central bank announcing a monetary policy decision this week (April 12).

All 27 analysts in a Bloomberg poll on April 6 said they expect the BoC to keep its policy rate unchanged at 4.5%.

Over in Europe, the data focus will be on February industrial production from the UK, Italy and the eurozone on April 13.

On the corporate front, Bursa Malaysia-listed companies holding their annual general meetings include LPI Capital Bhd on Wednesday, CIMB Group Holdings Bhd, Poh Huat Resources Holdings Bhd and Malaysia Marine and Heavy Engineering Holdings Bhd on Thursday. Companies holding extraordinary general meetings include Systech Bhd on Monday and KPJ Healthcare Bhd on Wednesday.

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