The Week Ahead: 2Q GDP, decision on Najib’s 1MDB audit report tampering in focus

TheEdge Mon, Aug 10, 2020 12:30pm - 3 years View Original


This week will be eventful, as the Kuala Lumpur High Court is expected to deliver its decision on former prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s application to strike out the charge of tampering with the audit report of 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB).

The High Court was supposed to deliver its decision last Friday, but Justice Mohamed Zaini Mazlan decided to reserve his judgment during the trial, which resumes from Monday (Aug 10) to Thursday (Aug 13).

Najib is charged with using his position to order amendments to the 1MDB final audit report before it was presented to the Public Accounts Committee to avoid any action being taken against him, while former 1MDB president Arul Kanda Kandasamy is charged with abetting Najib in making the amendments to the report.

The trial of former deputy prime minister and current Umno president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi will also continue next week before Judge Collin Lawrence Sequerah.

Ahmad Zahid is facing 47 charges, with 12 of them involving criminal breach of trust, eight for corruption and 27 for money laundering involving Yayasan Akalbudi, a charitable foundation he set up.

On the economic front, Malaysia is expected to release its second-quarter (2Q2020) gross domestic product (GDP) numbers on Friday. This will be closely watched, as economists are expecting a large dive in the numbers because of the Movement Control Order put in place throughout the second quarter.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg are expecting 2Q2020 GDP to contract by 10.1%. It remains to be seen whether the GDP numbers could surprise on the upside like the previous quarter. Malaysia’s 1Q2020 GDP expanded 0.7%, in contrast to the street’s consensus for a 1% contraction.

Singapore will celebrate its 55th National Day on Sunday (Aug 9) and  will observe a holiday on Monday. On Tuesday, the city state will release its 2Q2020 GDP data. According to UOB Global Economics and Markets Research, the sustained fall in Singapore’s industrial production suggests downside risks to 2Q2020 GDP.

UOB notes that Singapore’s manu­facturing contracted 0.7% year-on-year in 2Q2020, after accounting for the downward revision of May’s manufacturing pace and the latest reading of a 6.7% y-o-y decline in June, which is much weaker than advanced estimates, which reported manufacturing growth at 2.5%.

Thailand will also observe a holi­day on Wednesday as the land of smiles celebrates its Queen’s birthday, while markets in India will also be closed on Wednesday for the Janmashtami holiday.

It will also be a long weekend for Japan, which will observe its Mountain Day holiday on Monday, and South Korean markets will be closed on Monday in observance of the Liberation Day holiday in North and South Korea, which falls on Saturday.

There will also be a slew of data coming out from China this week, with the July Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index scheduled to be released on Monday. According to Bloomberg estimates, China’s PPI is expected to decline 2.5% y-o-y in July, while its CPI is expected to rise 2.6% y-o-y.

Other data coming out from China includes its July industrial production on Friday, which is expected to increase 5.1% y-o-y, according to Bloomberg estimates, and its July retail sales figure, which is expected to remain flat.

The US will also be releasing its July PPI figures on Tuesday, which is expected to fall 0.7% y-o-y, and its CPI numbers on Thursday, which Bloomberg estimates to increase 0.7% y-o-y. The US will also be releasing its July industrial production numbers on Friday, which are expected to increase 2.7% y-o-y.

The Wall Street Journal reported, citing sources, that the US and China had agreed to high-level talks on Aug 15 to assess Beijing’s compliance with the bilateral trade agreement signed early this year.

Meanwhile, India will release its July CPI on Wednesday, alongside its industrial production numbers.

Australia will release its July unemployment rate, estimated to come in at 7.8%, from 7.4% in June, according to Bloomberg.

There will be one monetary poli­cy decision taking place this week, with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand expected to announce its decision on Wednesday. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the central bank to hold the key rate at 0.25%.

On the corporate front, Bursa Malaysia-listed companies scheduled or expected to have their annual gene­ral meetings this week include AmFirst Real Estate Investment Trust, Johore Tin Bhd, Gunung Capital Bhd and BP Plastics Holdings Bhd on Monday; Muda Holdings Bhd on Wednesday; and KNM Group Bhd and Syarikat Takaful Malaysia Keluarga Bhd on Thursday.

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