MANILA: The Philippine peso and the Thai baht offer a tale of contrasting fortunes, with one faring better than the other against a strong dollar.
The peso dropped 1% against the greenback in the first quarter, outperforming the baht whose 4.2% decline made it emerging Asia’s laggard. The divergence is likely to persist in the coming three months as the Philippines’ trade deficit narrows while Thailand’s tourism industry languishes.
As a rising dollar reasserts itself, local factors are helping to determine which regional currencies can better withstand the fallout. Still, a weaker exchange rate may not be an undesirable outcome for Asian policy makers, with the likes of the Bank of Thailand consistently arguing against a strong currency to protect exporters.
“The Philippine peso has been driven by expectations on its trade balance, ” said Eugenia Fabon Victorino, head of Asia strategy at SEB in Singapore. “The baht is dealing with persistently weak portfolio flows which is exacerbated by the propensity of local corporates to raise outbound investments considering the weak domestic demand in Thailand.”
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