This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on December 18, 2023 - December 24, 2023

The Department of Statistics Malaysia (DOSM) is scheduled to release the trade statistics for November on Tuesday.

In October, external trade data showed improved exports. It contracted 4.4% year on year, less than the 13.8% y-o-y decline recorded in September. This was a result of a smaller contraction in the manufactured goods and mining exports at -3.5% and -22% y-o-y respectively. Imports also slowed in October to -0.2% y-o-y from -11.1% in September. The better showing in October saw RHB Research revise its full-year 2023 export projection to -7.3% y-o-y compared with its previous estimate of -9.4% y-o-y.

On Friday, the DOSM will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November. Headline inflation, as measured by the CPI, continued to slow for a second straight month to 1.8% in October, with the index point recording coming in at 130.9 compared with 128.6 a year ago. A gentler rise in inflation was led by moderating growth in the food and non-alcoholic beverages group.

Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim will be in Japan from Dec 16 to 18 to participate in the Asean-Japan Commemorative Summit. The summit marks the 50th anniversary of Asean-Japan Dialogue Relations.

During his trip, Anwar will hold a bilateral meeting with his Japanese counterpart Fumio Kishida. The leaders are expected to discuss the state of Malaysia-Japan relations and exchange views on regional and international issues of mutual concern. They are also expected to announce the elevation of bilateral relations to a comprehensive strategic partnership.

While there, Anwar and Kishida will witness the exchange of notes on the implementation of Security Capacities Enhancement Programme under the Official Security Assistance between the two countries and the memorandum of cooperation on space development and application between the Malaysian Space Agency and Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency. The itinerary also includes Anwar’s participation in the Asia Zero Emission Community Leaders Meeting, which will discuss practical pathways for the region to achieve energy transition and carbon neutrality.

Anwar will be accompanied by newly minted Minister of Foreign Affairs Datuk Seri Mohamad Hasan and Minister of Investment, Trade and Industry Senator Tengku Datuk Seri Zafrul Abdul Aziz.

On the local corporate front, two initial public offerings (IPOs) are scheduled on the ACE Market. Shares of Critical Holdings Bhd will be listed on Monday and Jati Tinggi Group Bhd on Wednesday. Critical Holdings, a mechanical, electrical and process utilities design and engineering solutions provider for mission-critical facilities, aims to raise RM39.03 million from the IPO by issuing new shares at 35 sen per share, while Jati Tinggi, an infrastructure utilities engineering company, aims to raise RM18 million from its public issue of 66.8 million new shares at an issue price of 27 sen apiece.

Companies that are expected to hold their annual general meetings this week include Only World Group Holdings Bhd (Monday); Borneo Oil and Scomi Energy Services Bhd (Tuesday); Tanco Holdings Bhd (Wednesday), Seal Incorporated Bhd (Thursday) and Industronics Bhd, Xidelang Holdings Ltd and EUPE Corp Bhd (Friday).

Over at the courts, the Kuala Lumpur High Court will decide on the quantum of the summary judgement that Tan Sri Muhamad Shafee Abdullah is required to pay. Last Friday, the court allowed the Inland Revenue Board’s (IRB) application to enter a summary judgement on Shafee’s income tax case but said that the amount would only be decided on Monday, following further calculations. The matter ended up in court after Shafee and the IRB failed to reach a settlement.

Also on Monday, the 1Malaysia Development Bhd-Tanore trial before Justice Datuk Colin Lawrence Sequerah may continue, depending on whether the new prosecution witness Nur Aida Arifin, a Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission investigating officer, has recovered from Covid-19.

Elsewhere, Bank Indonesia (BI) is expected to make its monetary policy decision on Thursday. In its outlook report for Dec 11, 2023 to Jan 5, 2024, UOB Global Economics and Markets Research expects BI’s decision to remain unchanged but adds that it expects one more 25-basis-point (bps) hike in 1Q2024 to 6.25%.

Bank of Japan will make its policy decision on Tuesday. “We do not expect BoJ to adjust policy in December, but it may provide guidance that it plans to do so soon. We project BoJ normalisation will likely begin in early 2024 — negative policy call rate to rise from -0.1% to 0% in the January 2024 monetary policy meeting (MPM) while yield curve control to be dropped in the March 2024 MPM. BoJ Governor Ueda is scheduled to speak at the meeting of councillors of Keidanren in Tokyo on Christmas Day. Japan will also be releasing its CPI on Friday,” says UOB.

China will release its one-year and five-year loan prime rates (LPR) on Wednesday. Bloomberg estimates no change at 3.45% and 4.2% respectively. “We are in line with the consensus forecast for December and push back our rate cut expectations to 1Q2024. We expect one-year and five-year LPR to fall by 10bps to 3.35% and 4.1% respectively in 1Q2024 and remain flat through end-4Q2024,” UOB says.

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