The Week Ahead: Corporate earnings season, Indonesia’s 4Q GDP in focus

TheEdge Mon, Feb 05, 2024 04:00pm - 2 months View Original


This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on February 5, 2024 - February 11, 2024

The corporate earnings reporting season picks up steam this week with British American Tobacco (Malaysia) Bhd, LPI Capital Bhd, KLCCP Stapled Group, MNRB Holdings Bhd and Malaysia Marine & Heavy Engineering Holdings Bhd among the companies expected to release their financial results for the October-December 2023 quarter.

On Tuesday, Wentel Engineering Holdings Bhd, which is involved in the fabrication of semi-finished metal products, fabrication of metal parts and assembly of finished products, is slated to list on the ACE Market of Bursa Malaysia. Its initial public offering is expected to raise RM71 million.

There will be a slew of economic data releases this week, starting with Malaysia’s Industrial Production Index and manufacturing sales value for December to be released by the Department of Statistics on Wednesday.

UOB Global Economics and Markets Research estimates that the country’s industrial production will grow slightly higher at 0.9% year on year (y-o-y) in December from 0.6% in November.

On Thursday, Bank Negara Malaysia is set to release its latest international reserves data as at Jan 31. As at Jan 15, the central bank’s international reserves rose to US$115.1 billion (RM542.1 billion) from US$112.8 billion as at Dec 15, 2023.

Across the causeway, the key data will be the S&P Global Singapore Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for January and retail sales for December on Monday. This is followed by its January official reserves and mid-week Certificate of Entitlement auction on Wednesday. A COE gives the right to own and use a vehicle in Singapore.

Markets in New Zealand will close on Tuesday to celebrate Waitangi Day while Indonesia will celebrate the Israk Mikraj holiday on Thursday. Separately, markets in Malaysia and Singapore will close on Feb 12, while Hong Kong will have an extended holiday from Feb 12 to 13.

Elsewhere in Asia-Pacific, three central banks will be announcing their monetary policy decisions. It starts with the Reserve Bank of Australia, which will announce its monetary policy decision and release the RBA statement on quarterly update of economic forecasts and policy outlook on Tuesday.

UOB expects the RBA to keep the policy rate unchanged in 1Q2024, in line with a Bloomberg poll. The research house expects the RBA to see a rate cut in 3Q2024.

In Thailand, UOB expects Bank Of Thailand to keep its policy rate unchanged at 2.5% on Wednesday. This is on the back of a favourable inflation outlook and the need to maintain the macro-financial stability continuously echoed by the central bank. Pressures on inflation should be contained.

The Reserve Bank of India will announce its monetary policy on Thursday, with UOB expecting the central bank to keep peak policy rates unchanged for some time to anchor the disinflation process, while pencilling in a 25-basis-point rate cut only in 4Q2024.

Meanwhile, Indonesia is going to release its 4Q2023 gross domestic product data on Monday. UOB forecasts that Indonesia will chart 5.1% y-o-y GDP growth in 4Q and 5.1% overall economic growth in 2023, which is higher than the Bloomberg consensus at 4.97% in 4Q and 5.05% for the full year of 2023.

Thailand, Taiwan, The Philippines and China are going to reveal their Consumer Price Index (CPI) data this week. China will also release its Caixin services PMI data for January on Monday and reserves data on Wednesday. It will be a short week in China as financial markets will close from Feb 9 to 17 for the Lunar New Year holidays.

In the US, more than 800 companies will be releasing their financial results this week, of which 100 are S&P 500-listed firms with the focus on energy majors, multinational companies, consumer discretionary and media giants.

After the January jobs report, the US data docket is lighter this week but focus will be on the US January Labor Market Report on non-farm payrolls (NFP), unemployment rate and wages.

The focus in Europe stays on banks. There are no monetary policy decisions among G7 central banks this week, and the focus is likely on senior officials of G7 central banks speaking at public forums this week.

Eurozone data focus will be on the February Sentix investor confidence survey, December retail sales (Feb 6), and European Central Bank’s one-year and three-year CPI expectations (Feb 5) while Germany and Italy will be releasing the December industrial production data. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development will publish its latest Interim Economic Outlook for world economy and G20 on Monday.

Over at the local courts, the hearing of the 1Malaysia Development Bhd-Tanore Finance Corp trial continues this week except on Thursday.

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