“IS this market a bubble?” and “is my kid a genius?” are two questions which are asked far more often, and with less profit, than they should.

Financial advisers probably dread the asking of the one, just as much as teachers fear the other.

That’s because both questions, when asked by the typical investor or parent, embed both a delusion of detective skill and a wrong-headed idea of the point of the exercise.

You will very likely not be able to work out the answer, and will be prone to make the wrong move even if you do.

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