This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on April 15, 2024 - April 21, 2024

This week’s key focus on the local front will be on Malaysia’s advance gross domestic product (GDP) estimate for the first quarter of 2024 (1Q2024), which is scheduled to be released on April 19.

Bloomberg estimates show that the nation’s economy could grow 2.9% to 3.9% year on year, but UOB Global Economics & Markets Research sees a faster growth of 4.3% y-o-y.

This comes after a slower expansion rate of 3% y-o-y in 4Q2023, bringing full-year GDP growth to 3.7%. Bank Negara Malaysia expects the economy to expand 4% to 5% this year, driven mainly by resilient domestic expenditure, with additional support emanating from the expected recovery in exports.

Also on April 19, the Department of Statistics Malaysia will announce March trade data. Trade value was at a record high of RM211.79 billion in February 2024 after rising 3.3% y-o-y, while exports contracted 0.8% to RM111.33 billion.

Regionally, China is set to release its 1Q2024 GDP on April 16. “A 5% GDP growth rate is anticipated, according to professional forecasters, and further reinforced by the trend observed in the Caixin China PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index),” says S&P Global Market Intelligence in a note on April 12.

The Caixin China March PMI showed that China’s service economy further expanded at end-1Q2024. Moreover, the pace of business activity growth accelerated in March, with new business rising at the quickest rate so far this year.

Other key releases from China this week include March retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment figures.

In Japan, the March Consumer Price Index (CPI), due to be released on April 19, will serve as guidance for monetary policy amid speculation that the Bank of Japan may raise rates in the near term, says S&P Global Market Intelligence.

There are no central bank monetary policy decisions in Asia-Pacific this week, but China will set its one-year medium-term lending facility rate on April 15.

Indonesian markets will remain closed on April 15 for the Eid al-Fitr holiday, and Thailand’s markets will close on April 15 and 16 for the Songkran festival, while Indian markets will close for the Rama Navmi holiday on April 17.

The 2024 Spring Meetings of the World Bank Group and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will start in Washington, DC, the US, on April 15 while the ministerial-level meetings will take place later from April 17 to 19. IMF will release its latest world economic outlook on April 16.

The US corporate earnings season is another highlight of the week, with early focus still on major US banks.

A slew of economic data will be released this week in the US, with markets watching retail sales and industrial production figures.

“The market has pencilled in expectations for industrial production growth to have accelerated in March, as signalled by recent manufacturing PMI data, while retail sales growth may slightly decelerate in March,” says S&P Global Market Intelligence.
In Europe, key data this week include the eurozone’s February industrial production (April 15), final March CPI and UK March CPI (April 17) as well as UK retail sales for March (April 19).

Meanwhile, India’s elections will begin on April 19, with about 968 million people eligible to vote. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is seeking a third term in office.

On the local corporate front, Notion VTec Bhd will hold an extraordinary general meeting (EGM) on April 17 to seek shareholders’ approval for the proposed bonus issue of warrants on the basis of one warrant for every 10 existing shares held.

On April 18, Systech Bhd is scheduled to have its EGM for a few resolutions, including the proposed issuance of up to 144 million new shares, representing 29.4% of its enlarged issued shares; the proposed acquisition of the entire stake in IT solutions firm Wilstech Sdn Bhd for RM75 million; and the proposed bonus issue of up to 160.66 million new warrants on the basis of one warrant for every four existing shares held.

OSK Holdings Bhd, Malaysia Marine and Heavy Engineering Holdings Bhd and Kumpulan H&L High-Tech Bhd will hold their annual general meetings on April 18.

In the local courts, the hearing of SRC International Sdn Bhd’s US$1.18 billion (RM5.62 billion) civil suit against Datuk Seri Najib Razak will continue on April 15. The suit is in relation to an alleged breach of trust and breach of statutory duty involving the RM4 billion Kumpulan Wang Persaraan (Diperbadankan) loan to SRC International when Najib was prime minister.

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