KUALA LUMPUR: Genting Malaysia Bhd's upcoming first-quarter 2026 earnings are expected to improve quarter-on-quarter to between RM100 million and RM200 million, supported by seasonally stronger gaming activity during the Lunar New Year period.

Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd said on a full-year basis, Genting Malaysia's earnings are expected to increase by eight per cent year-on-year (YoY), although they are still projected to remain below pre-pandemic levels.

According to MyBursa, Genting Malaysia is scheduled to release its earnings on May 29.

"Genting Malaysia's earnings trajectory is largely dependent on its Malaysian operations which contributes 80 per cent to its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda).

"Notably, visitations to Resorts World Genting (RWG) have averaged above pre-pandemic momentum over recent quarters, though the average spend has plateaued amidst an increased cost environment," the firm said in a note.

Affin Hwang expects the Malaysian operations' 2026 estimated Ebitda to edge higher year-on-year to RM2.21 billion from RM2.14 billion.

It added that the Ebitda margin is projected to ease to 29 per cent from 30 per cent in 2025 due to the full-year impact of the expanded sales and services tax scope.

"For its UK and US operations, we expect 2026 Ebitda to decline YoY to RM656 million, largely due to the consolidated losses of its Empire business and minor gestation losses in the US, alongside appreciation of the ringgit against the respective currencies.

"Genting Malaysia is expanding its gaming offerings across its casinos following the legislative changes in 2025 (whereby slot allocations increased to 80 per casino, from 20 previously) alongside redeveloping an establishment into a casino after securing a planning approval back in 2025," Affin Hwang said.

It added that in the US, Genting Malaysia officially launched New York's first full-scale casino featuring live table games at Resorts World New York City on April 28, marking the first phase of management's broader US$5.5 billion master plan.

Affin Hwang noted that, pending greater clarity on near-term profitability amid potential upfront costs, it is conservatively anticipating some initial gestation losses despite the venture's cost advantage of converting an existing facility.

The firm maintained a "Hold" recommendation on Genting Malaysia with a target price of RM2.15, noting that the current share price already reflects muted expectations for earnings recovery momentum.