KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia's trade momentum, which hit its fastest growth since September 2022, can be sustained in the near term but remains vulnerable to external shocks, economists said.
The trade rose 28.6 per cent year-on-year to a record RM336.73 billion in April 2026, driven mainly by strong exports of electrical and electronic products, said Investment, Trade and Industry Ministry.
Exports extended their growth momentum for the 10th consecutive month, surging 36.9 per cent to a record RM182.74 billion, surpassing the previous high of RM152.77 billion recorded in December 2025 by RM30 billion.
Imports rose 20 per cent to RM153.99 billion, extending Malaysia's trade surplus streak to 72 consecutive months since May 2020.
Nusantara Academy of Strategic Research senior fellow Professor Dr Azmi Hassan said Malaysia's trade expansion can continue as the government has been aggressively diversifying export markets following past tariff-related disruptions, particularly into Africa and Latin America.
He said the strategy has also persisted despite geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, with Malaysia actively expanding exports into regions where trade links have historically been limited.
"Based on these new markets, Malaysia's trade momentum can be sustained even if there are challenges such as supply chain disruptions in energy, oil and gas," he said.
"The diversification alone provides enough support to maintain growth, as Malaysia is exporting to regions where it previously had minimal trade exposure," he told Business Times.
On concerns over exposure to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, Azmi pointed to last year's Asean Summit, where Malaysia hosted the Asean-China-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Summit to strengthen economic ties among the three blocs.
He said that despite current tensions in the Middle East, Malaysia's trade with GCC countries can not only be maintained but potentially improved, returning to pre-tension levels.
He added that Malaysia is not overly dependent on a single product segment or a narrow group of trading partners.
"Instead, the country is actively expanding into new markets, including Africa and Latin America, to reduce dependency and broaden its trade base," he said.
UniKL Business School economic analyst Associate Professor Dr Aimi Zulhazmi Abdul Rashid said the sustainability of Malaysia's trade momentum depends on two key engines of growth.
He said the current strength could last another two to three months, supported mainly by the electrical and electronics (E&E) sector, which accounts for about 40 per cent of Malaysia's exports.
He noted that the global semiconductor upcycle remains intact, driven by sustained demand for chips used in artificial intelligence data centres and electric vehicles.
He added that manufacturing hubs in Kulim, Penang and Johor continue to receive strong orders, with visibility extending into the third quarter of 2026.
"The services sector, particularly tourism, is providing a supporting buffer, with tourist arrivals from China and the Middle East rising 18 per cent year-on-year, helping to partially offset any slowdown in goods exports," he said.
Aimi said export diversification is also improving, with shipments to Asean and the EU rising nine to 12 per cent year-on-year, reducing reliance on traditional markets such as the US and China compared with 2022.
However, he noted that the outlook remains fragile if external demand weakens.
"Commodity exports, including palm oil, petroleum and rubber, have begun to flatten, and a 10 to 15 per cent decline in prices could quickly weigh on overall export performance," he said.
He added that the US is still reviewing proposed tariffs of 10 to 20 per cent on Southeast Asian goods, which could initially affect furniture, rubber and textile exports.
Rakuten Trade Sdn Bhd vice-president of equity research Thong Pak Leng said Malaysia's strong trade growth is encouraging but may be difficult to sustain if global demand weakens amid geopolitical tensions and softer economic growth.
He said Malaysia remains heavily dependent on exports to major markets such as China and the US, meaning any slowdown in consumer spending or technology demand could affect trade performance.
"Malaysia's trade outlook is quite exposed to geopolitical tensions in West Asia because the region is important for global oil supply and shipping routes.
"Any disruption in key routes such as the Strait of Hormuz could increase shipping costs, delay deliveries, and push oil prices higher. This may affect Malaysia's export activities and business costs if tensions persist for a prolonged period," he said.
Meanwhile, the ministry said the country's trade performance remained resilient, with exports, imports and total trade all reaching record monthly highs.
This was despite rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, higher logistics costs, supply chain disruptions and commodity price volatility.
The strong export performance was mainly supported by double-digit growth in major export products, led by electrical and electronic goods, which rose RM28 billion to a new record high amid robust demand from artificial intelligence (AI) and automotive electronics segments.
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