Wei Yoong's comment on KOSSAN. All Comments
Wei Yoong
3 Like · Reply
Forecast Net Present of NTA for Kossan

1. Today cash in hand =RM1.4b

2.Cash in hand/share =RM0.56

3. cost of production in latest QR=RM538m, for Revenue RM590m

4. estimate loss in future per year =-10%
or -RM59m x 4 = -RM236m

5. RM1.4b/RM236m=5.93years(够烧5年)

6.如果两年复苏，到时候cash in hand=RM928m or 每股现金=RM0.36

7. Actual value's NTA=RM1.51-RM0.56=RM0.95(土地机器厂房每股价值)

8. 使用率40%，RM0.95 X 40%=RM0.38

9.两年后回到60%盈利breakeven，Forecast Net Present NTA=RM0.95X0.6=RM0.57+RM0.36=RM0.93 (wow almost close)
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3 years · translate ·
JeevS
Shocking sendiri with your own analysis?
2 Like · 3 years · translate
Wei Yoong
It just my own analysis and opinion only la, JeevS bro. But Kossan really close to it real value compared to Topglov, supermax and harta.
Like · 3 years · translate
alpha jack
this sorchai seems like a pro ....kossan worth 20sen only
Like · 3 years · translate
Wei Yoong
worth 20sen??? how you get the figure? Alpha Jack? can share with us?
Like · 3 years · translate
Wei Yoong
RM0.93 is a forecast intrinsic value in an average for long term (3-5 years), it might go lower due to bad market sentiment (fearing). If lower mean more discount la, more undervalue. All of these is just a sharing and my own opinion, welcome to comment.
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Like · 3 years · translate
alpha jack
no. I look down on people acting the pro...calculating this and that....if so geng...don't need to post here.
2 Like · 3 years · translate
Wei Yoong
I'm just using the logical thinking and common sense to try to evaluate the value, so I'm not the pro.
Like · 3 years · translate
Wei Yoong
However, you can share your own opinion here, about the industry future, prospect, performance, etc.
Like · 3 years · translate
alpha jack
no need share. no one know . if know it will not like this .just up or down .
5 Like · 3 years · translate
Mark Siow
intrinsic value都有网站帮你算出来的啦！还要自己那么辛苦算？什么dcf也就是一种看起来好像逻辑但是又充满假设性的一种估值，股价值不值？自己心里知道就好，因为不管你再怎样算，那都是你自己算出来的估值，和其他无关，人家也不会理你那么多。。。。
1 Like · 3 years · translate
alpha jack
mark well said.so I say acting pro just let self know.
Like · 3 years · translate
JeevS
Market sets the price. Dont overthink with all those calculations. Even if your DCF price is high doesnt mean anything if nobody is buying it. End of the day its all about market sentiment
2 Like · 3 years · translate
alpha jack
today close 1.13...so again that retard calculate 0.93... so naive...
Like · 3 years · translate
嗨估神
I guess he is practising mathematics here, dont blame him.... ?
1 Like · 3 years · translate
Wilson Lee
Today retrace deep
1 Like · 3 years · translate
Wei Low
1.00 is pretty attractive at current info. They have the money to reduce the operation cost and financial cost, a do nothing scenario still worth 0.93 is pretty good.
1 Like · 3 years · translate
Wei Yoong
Ya, Wei Low, based on the latest info and analysis, kossan is the only one, who did not expand their business during MCO because they had done their expansion during 2018-2019. So, it is one of the cash rich glove company and the current price is pretty attractive.
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Like · 3 years · translate
Wei Yoong
Wilson Lee, let the market decide it value.
Like · 3 years · translate
Wei Low
The only sad thing is it will take a year or two to normalize and maybe another couple of years to be fruitful. Hopefully they restart paying dividend
2 Like · 3 years · translate
Mimi Siti
ada harapan ke? https://youtu.be/iAiQA8gwLjU
Like · 3 years · translate
嗨估神
是不是开始觉得自己很渺小
Like · 3 years · translate
Wei Low
算中赚了还会觉得渺小？
他那个还是什么都不做什么都没发生的算法，那时就是说1.000很便宜。难得有人肯出两年后的价钱买，赚了先走等新财报
1 Like · 3 years · translate