（纽约11日讯）尽管中国需求忧虑拖累国际油价上周挫跌逾2%，摩根大通、FGE顾问公司及彭博资讯却都看涨油价，预估布兰特油价未来几个月上看每桶90美元，因石油输出国组织与伙伴国（油盟+）将减产效期延长到6月，需求又看增，油市供需将更紧俏。

摩根大通（小摩）分析师团队指出，俄罗斯可能完全落实对油盟+所做的减产保证，于6月时减少日产量到900万桶，但还无法确定俄罗斯是否会落实减少出口保证。小摩预估，布兰特油价4月将涨到每桶88至90美元。第二季石油供给将转紧，全球每日将出现40万桶的供给缺口，若俄罗斯落实保证，今年夏季油价将相当看好。

FGE公司也指出，全球油市3月至8月将持续紧俏，油价看涨。由于油盟+将减产效期延长到6月，第二季将出现供给缺口，第三季油市将“非常紧俏”，届时布兰特油价将迈向每桶90美元，但还要看油盟如何决定。

彭博资讯分析师也认为，由于油盟+延长减产效期，支撑布兰特油价，估算合理价为略高于每桶85美元，比8日收盘价82.08美元，高出3.6%。

中国中油公司指出，中国去碳化行动已开始抑制化石燃料消费量，因此石油需求已进入低成长阶段。随著电动车数量增加，及卡车改用液化天然气（LNG），今年汽油及柴油消费量将被取代2000万吨（10%至12%），但因石化工业扩张，总石油需求量将继续增加。

沙地阿美首席执行员纳瑟也认为，全球油市依然健全，预估今年需求将增加约150万桶，达1.04亿桶左右。

Petra Energy is a Bursa oil & gas company providing a range of integrated brownfield services and products for the upstream oil and gas industry in Malaysia. As such you should expect its performance to be link to crude oil prices.

From 2013 to 2022 there is a 72 % correlation between Petra Energy revenue for the year with the crude oil price of the preceding year. This meant that crude oil prices explained about half of the changes in revenue.

Crude oil prices this year is much higher than those in 2019. If you look at Petra Energy ROE trend for the past decade, you can see that it peaked in 2019. Does this mean that the ROE in 2024 would be better than that in 2019? If so, then the share price of the company has yet to reflect this. https://i.postimg.cc/PJmGZ92C/Petra-Energy.png

Is this a price mismatch? For more insights into the Bursa oil and gas sector, go to “Are there opportunities in the Bursa Energy Services sector?” https://www.i4value.asia/2022/11/are-there-opportunities-in-bursa-energy.html#more