This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on January 12, 2026 - January 18, 2026

It will be a busy week ahead for markets, with a flurry of macroeconomic data releases across Asia-Pacific and key developments in major developed economies as investors assess the outlook for growth, inflation and monetary policy in the new year.

In Malaysia, attention will be on the release of the advance estimate of 4Q2025 gross domestic product (GDP) on Thursday (Jan 15). Bloomberg consensus pegs growth at 4.6% year on year (y-o-y), while UOB Global Economics and Markets Research expects a slightly stronger print of 5% y-o-y, easing from 5.2% in 3Q2025. For the full year, Bloomberg estimates Malaysia’s economy to expand 4.7% in 2025, moderating from 5.1% in 2024.

On Monday, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board will release its December production and trade data, which could see Malaysia’s annual production hitting 20 million tonnes for the first time.

Political developments will be in focus this week, with Umno set to hold its annual general meeting (AGM) from Jan 14 to 17 at the World Trade Centre.

Across the Causeway, the focus will be on Singapore’s December non-oil domestic exports, due on Friday (Jan 16). UOB forecasts growth of 4.9% y-o-y, while Bloomberg’s consensus is significantly higher at 13.9% y-o-y, from 11.6% in November.

Elsewhere in Asia-Pacific, the Bank of Korea (BoK) is the only major central bank in the region with a monetary policy decision this week, due on Thursday (Jan 15). A Bloomberg survey of six economists shows unanimous expectations of the policy rate remaining unchanged at 2.5%. At its November 2025 meeting, the BoK pivoted away from guiding for further rate cuts in 2026, signalling a more cautious stance. Following this shift, UOB now expects the base rate to remain at 2.5% in 2026, instead of the two cuts previously pencilled in.

South Korea will release its preliminary trade figures for the first 10 days of January, along with December import and export price indices, offering early insights into regional trade momentum.

Elsewhere, China is set to release its December monetary and credit data, including M2 money supply, new aggregate financing and new yuan loans. Bloomberg estimates M2 growth to remain at 8% y-o-y, while new aggregate financing is expected to rise to RMB36.35 trillion from RMB33.39 trillion in November. China’s December trade data, due on Tuesday (Jan 13), is expected to show export growth moderating to 3% y-o-y from 5.9%, while imports are seen rising 0.8% y-o-y, with the trade surplus projected at US$114.05 billion.

India will release a series of key data points, including December consumer price inflation on Sunday (Jan 11), which is expected to rise to 1.55% y-o-y, according to Bloomberg, or 1.8% y-o-y based on UOB estimates, from 0.71% in November. Wholesale price inflation, trade data and other macro indicators will follow later in the week.

Turning to developed markets, the US earnings season will pick up pace, with major banks set to report from Tuesday (Jan 13). Nearly 400 US companies are scheduled to release their quarterly results over the week, putting corporate guidance and margins under the spotlight.

On the macro front, investors will see a heavy slate of US data, including December nonfarm payrolls, consumer confidence, inflation and retail sales. December CPI is due on Monday (Jan 12), with headline inflation expected to rise 0.3% month on month (m-o-m) and 2.7% y-o-y, while core CPI is forecast at 2.7% y-o-y. November advance retail sales are expected to rebound 0.4% m-o-m.

Several senior US Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak ahead of the blackout period beginning Jan 17. They include New York Fed president John Williams, Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari and Fed vice-chair Philip Jefferson. The Fed’s Beige Book is expected to be released on Wednesday (Jan 14), offering qualitative insights into economic conditions across districts.

The European Central Bank (ECB) will publish its latest Economic Bulletin on Thursday (Jan 15), alongside speeches from several ECB policymakers. Key data releases include eurozone industrial production and trade figures, as well as Germany’s 2025 GDP estimate.

In Japan, markets will be closed on Monday (Jan 12) for the Coming of Age Day holiday. Key releases later in the week include trade and current account data, the Eco Watchers survey and producer price inflation.

On the home front, Bursa Malaysia will see the initial public offering of arcade machine supplier and toys distributor Semico Capital Bhd on Jan 13.

In the judicial calendar, Monday marks the opening of the legal year 2026, with Chief Justice Datuk Wan Ahmad Farid scheduled to deliver his address, setting the tone for the judiciary in the year ahead.

The Court of Appeal has fixed Jan 13 to deliver its decision on former prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s appeal to reinstate a RM1.9 million lawsuit against former attorney-general Tan Sri Tommy Thomas.

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