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ting pang eng replied to comment on SUPERMX.
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Harta prospect is getting better …..
1. Glove demand is recovering
2. Utilisation rate is improving
3. ASP is going up and passing cost
4. Customer stockpiles are depleting
5. Customers are restocking already
6. Ramping up production
Possible good results in Q2 2025 & Q3 2025 because of demand recovery and once the delayed shipment is recognised
1. Glove demand is recovering
2. Utilisation rate is improving
3. ASP is going up and passing cost
4. Customer stockpiles are depleting
5. Customers are restocking already
6. Ramping up production
Possible good results in Q2 2025 & Q3 2025 because of demand recovery and once the delayed shipment is recognised
KeepBUY,higherMYR1.04TP(DCF)fromMYR1.01,27%upside.4QFY24 (Jun) core profit swing back to the black (MYR6.4m), bringing Supermax Corp’s FY24 core losses to MYR36m. Results were lower-than-expected, as SUCB has continued to execute low-price contracts for two years at certain distribution and manufacturing plants since 1QFY23. Nonetheless, we see the light at the end of the tunnel, premised on its recovery in profitability, given that global demand for gloves are gradually picking up.
• Results overview. SUCB reported a core profit of MYR6.4m in 4QFY24 (3QFY24: -MYR15m). Core profit was primarily adjusted for MYR27m (impairment of PPE), MYR72.9m (write-down of high price inventory), and additional tax charged at certain manufacturing units for prior years (amounting to MYR30.8m). On a sequential basis, the group saw higher sales (+25.6% QoQ), attributed to the increase in sales orders as customers ramp- up their stock replenishments. Assuming a blended ASP of USD20.50/1,000 pieces, this should work out to an estimated volume sold of 1.85bn pieces during this quarter (implying a 22% QoQ growth).
• Cost outlook. We expect key raw material costs to normalise in the coming quarters on the back of lower nitrile prices (4% lower in 3Q24 as at August). Meanwhile, natural gas prices are set to be lower QoQ in 3Q24 (-8% QoQ as at August) on the back of a lingering global demand outlook.
• Operating landscape turns favourable. Industry demand-supply dynamics continue to show signs of recovery on: i) The inventory destocking cycle coming to an end, ii) improving order visibility (with recent July exports showing signs of improvement; +11.8% MoM), and iii) customers being more receptive of price hikes. With the industry excess capacity gradually phasing out, we expect the gloves industry to achieve demand-supply equilibrium by 2H24. All in, we retain our view that gloves demand will continue picking up in the coming quarters, as client inventory levels continue to deplete – this is on top of gloves inventory levels (stockpiled since 2020) approaching their expiry dates (typical shelf life for gloves: 3-5 years).
• Earnings adjustments. Post results, we raise our FY25F earnings (FY26 unchanged) by 5%, taking into account of a favourable cost outlook that should be able to offset against the weakening USD/MYR exchange rate. Our TP is incorporated with a 14% ESG discount, as SUCB’s 2.3 ESG score is below our 3.0 country median. Post our earnings adjustment, our DCF-derived TP is now raised to MYR1.04. Our TP implies 0.9x FY25F P/BV against its pre- COVID-19 historical mean of 1.3x.
• Keyrisks:Higher-than-expectedsalesvolumes,weaker-than-expectedUSD against the MYR, and lower-than-expected raw material prices.
• Results overview. SUCB reported a core profit of MYR6.4m in 4QFY24 (3QFY24: -MYR15m). Core profit was primarily adjusted for MYR27m (impairment of PPE), MYR72.9m (write-down of high price inventory), and additional tax charged at certain manufacturing units for prior years (amounting to MYR30.8m). On a sequential basis, the group saw higher sales (+25.6% QoQ), attributed to the increase in sales orders as customers ramp- up their stock replenishments. Assuming a blended ASP of USD20.50/1,000 pieces, this should work out to an estimated volume sold of 1.85bn pieces during this quarter (implying a 22% QoQ growth).
• Cost outlook. We expect key raw material costs to normalise in the coming quarters on the back of lower nitrile prices (4% lower in 3Q24 as at August). Meanwhile, natural gas prices are set to be lower QoQ in 3Q24 (-8% QoQ as at August) on the back of a lingering global demand outlook.
• Operating landscape turns favourable. Industry demand-supply dynamics continue to show signs of recovery on: i) The inventory destocking cycle coming to an end, ii) improving order visibility (with recent July exports showing signs of improvement; +11.8% MoM), and iii) customers being more receptive of price hikes. With the industry excess capacity gradually phasing out, we expect the gloves industry to achieve demand-supply equilibrium by 2H24. All in, we retain our view that gloves demand will continue picking up in the coming quarters, as client inventory levels continue to deplete – this is on top of gloves inventory levels (stockpiled since 2020) approaching their expiry dates (typical shelf life for gloves: 3-5 years).
• Earnings adjustments. Post results, we raise our FY25F earnings (FY26 unchanged) by 5%, taking into account of a favourable cost outlook that should be able to offset against the weakening USD/MYR exchange rate. Our TP is incorporated with a 14% ESG discount, as SUCB’s 2.3 ESG score is below our 3.0 country median. Post our earnings adjustment, our DCF-derived TP is now raised to MYR1.04. Our TP implies 0.9x FY25F P/BV against its pre- COVID-19 historical mean of 1.3x.
• Keyrisks:Higher-than-expectedsalesvolumes,weaker-than-expectedUSD against the MYR, and lower-than-expected raw material prices.
That’s an interesting observation. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the demand for gloves surged initially due to the need for personal protective equipment (PPE). However, once vaccines became widely available and the situation started to stabilize, the demand for gloves decreased, which impacted glove stocks.
In the case of the mpox virus, if an effective vaccine is developed and distributed, it could similarly reduce the demand for gloves and other PPE. However, the market dynamics can be influenced by various factors, including the severity of the outbreak, public health policies, and global supply chain issues.
In the case of the mpox virus, if an effective vaccine is developed and distributed, it could similarly reduce the demand for gloves and other PPE. However, the market dynamics can be influenced by various factors, including the severity of the outbreak, public health policies, and global supply chain issues.
Thailand has confirmed Asia's first known case of a more contagious and potentially deadlier version of the mpox virus with its transmission modes changed.
Experts noted that children are more likely to be infected in this outbreak due to their relatively weaker immune systems.
Thailand's Department of Disease Control confirmed on Thursday that a 66-year-old European patient who had travelled to Thailand from Africa was infected with the Clade Ib, a new, potentially deadlier strain of mpox, the first in Asia, and the second outside of Africa, according to the BBC News.
Sweden was the first place outside of the African continent to confirm a case of Clade Ib a week ago.
The infected man had also recently travelled to an unnamed African country, according to Sweden's public health ministry, as reported by BBC.
According to a doctor named Zhao Lei from Wuhan Union Hospital of China, the transmission of the mpox virus in the past was primarily through direct contact or sexual contact.
However, the variant of the Clade Ib that has been identified in Thailand is more contagious and threatening and can be transmitted by infected animals and passed from human to human through close physical contact, human secretions (such as respiratory droplets), rash or contaminated items.
The groups most affected by this mpox outbreak are women and children under 15 years old, as reported by People's Daily, quoting WHO figures.
According to Lu Hongzhou, head of the Third People's Hospital of Shenzhen, many children in Africa were not vaccinated with smallpox vaccine, and the administration of the vaccine is effective.
Besides, children, especially those in Africa, tend to have relatively weaker immune systems, and their nutrition is often poor, Lu told the Global Times on Monday.
Given the crowded living conditions of many African children, if a family member is infected, the risk of spreading the virus through close family contacts is high since they are highly likely to share the same room, Lu said.
Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director-general of the WHO, declared the surge of mpox a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC), the second time for WHO to declare the mpox virus outbreak a PHEIC since 2022.
WHO launched the Global Mpox Strategic Preparedness and Response Plan (SRSP) that requires approximately $135 million to control the new mpox outbreak by implementing comprehensive surveillance and response strategies, as well as advancing research and equitable access to medical countermeasures against mpox, according to China Central Television.
As of July, a total of 99,176 laboratory-confirmed cases of monkeypox, including 208 deaths, have been reported to the United Nations health agency from 116 countries in all WHO regions.
WHO spokeswoman Margaret Harris urged manufacturers to scale up mpox vaccine production, according to a report from AFP on August 17.
The WHO also called for countries with monkeypox vaccine stockpiles to donate them to countries with ongoing outbreaks, saccording to the AFP.
Experts noted that children are more likely to be infected in this outbreak due to their relatively weaker immune systems.
Thailand's Department of Disease Control confirmed on Thursday that a 66-year-old European patient who had travelled to Thailand from Africa was infected with the Clade Ib, a new, potentially deadlier strain of mpox, the first in Asia, and the second outside of Africa, according to the BBC News.
Sweden was the first place outside of the African continent to confirm a case of Clade Ib a week ago.
The infected man had also recently travelled to an unnamed African country, according to Sweden's public health ministry, as reported by BBC.
According to a doctor named Zhao Lei from Wuhan Union Hospital of China, the transmission of the mpox virus in the past was primarily through direct contact or sexual contact.
However, the variant of the Clade Ib that has been identified in Thailand is more contagious and threatening and can be transmitted by infected animals and passed from human to human through close physical contact, human secretions (such as respiratory droplets), rash or contaminated items.
The groups most affected by this mpox outbreak are women and children under 15 years old, as reported by People's Daily, quoting WHO figures.
According to Lu Hongzhou, head of the Third People's Hospital of Shenzhen, many children in Africa were not vaccinated with smallpox vaccine, and the administration of the vaccine is effective.
Besides, children, especially those in Africa, tend to have relatively weaker immune systems, and their nutrition is often poor, Lu told the Global Times on Monday.
Given the crowded living conditions of many African children, if a family member is infected, the risk of spreading the virus through close family contacts is high since they are highly likely to share the same room, Lu said.
Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director-general of the WHO, declared the surge of mpox a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC), the second time for WHO to declare the mpox virus outbreak a PHEIC since 2022.
WHO launched the Global Mpox Strategic Preparedness and Response Plan (SRSP) that requires approximately $135 million to control the new mpox outbreak by implementing comprehensive surveillance and response strategies, as well as advancing research and equitable access to medical countermeasures against mpox, according to China Central Television.
As of July, a total of 99,176 laboratory-confirmed cases of monkeypox, including 208 deaths, have been reported to the United Nations health agency from 116 countries in all WHO regions.
WHO spokeswoman Margaret Harris urged manufacturers to scale up mpox vaccine production, according to a report from AFP on August 17.
The WHO also called for countries with monkeypox vaccine stockpiles to donate them to countries with ongoing outbreaks, saccording to the AFP.
In a flash note, UOB Kay Hian said there may be increased trading sentiment on the Malaysian glove sector on the news, as demand for medical products may surge if mpox escalates into a worrying outbreak.
Glove stock valuations are now at “relatively attractive levels” and still have “palatable upside, solely on fundamentals”, without taking mpox into account, UOB Kay Hian said while maintaining its 'tactically overweight' sector rating.
The house has ‘buy’ calls on Top Glove, Hartalega Holdings Bhd (KL:HARTA) and Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd (KL:KOSSAN
Glove stock valuations are now at “relatively attractive levels” and still have “palatable upside, solely on fundamentals”, without taking mpox into account, UOB Kay Hian said while maintaining its 'tactically overweight' sector rating.
The house has ‘buy’ calls on Top Glove, Hartalega Holdings Bhd (KL:HARTA) and Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd (KL:KOSSAN
…….So Afraid……
(Verse 1)
In the shadows of the night,
A silent fear takes flight,
Whispers of a name,
Mpox, the world’s new pain.
(Pre-Chorus)
We’re searching for a cure,
In a world so unsure,
Holding on to hope,
Trying to cope.
(Chorus)
So afraid, of what’s to come,
In this battle, we’re not alone,
Hearts are breaking, tears will fall,
But together, we’ll stand tall.
(Verse 2)
Faces masked in sorrow,
Dreams of a brighter tomorrow,
Through the storm, we’ll fight,
Guided by the light.
(Pre-Chorus)
We’re searching for a cure,
In a world so unsure,
Holding on to hope,
Trying to cope.
(Chorus)
So afraid, of what’s to come,
In this battle, we’re not alone,
Hearts are breaking, tears will fall,
But together, we’ll stand tall.
(Bridge)
In the darkest hour,
We’ll find our power,
Love will lead the way,
To a brighter day.
(Chorus)
So afraid, of what’s to come,
In this battle, we’re not alone,
Hearts are breaking, tears will fall,
But together, we’ll stand tall.
(Outro)
So afraid, but we’ll be strong,
In this fight, we all belong,
With love and hope, we’ll carry on,
Until the fear is gone.
(Verse 1)
In the shadows of the night,
A silent fear takes flight,
Whispers of a name,
Mpox, the world’s new pain.
(Pre-Chorus)
We’re searching for a cure,
In a world so unsure,
Holding on to hope,
Trying to cope.
(Chorus)
So afraid, of what’s to come,
In this battle, we’re not alone,
Hearts are breaking, tears will fall,
But together, we’ll stand tall.
(Verse 2)
Faces masked in sorrow,
Dreams of a brighter tomorrow,
Through the storm, we’ll fight,
Guided by the light.
(Pre-Chorus)
We’re searching for a cure,
In a world so unsure,
Holding on to hope,
Trying to cope.
(Chorus)
So afraid, of what’s to come,
In this battle, we’re not alone,
Hearts are breaking, tears will fall,
But together, we’ll stand tall.
(Bridge)
In the darkest hour,
We’ll find our power,
Love will lead the way,
To a brighter day.
(Chorus)
So afraid, of what’s to come,
In this battle, we’re not alone,
Hearts are breaking, tears will fall,
But together, we’ll stand tall.
(Outro)
So afraid, but we’ll be strong,
In this fight, we all belong,
With love and hope, we’ll carry on,
Until the fear is gone.
Mpox can spread through several ways, not just sex and massage. Here are the main methods of transmission:
1. Close Personal Contact: This includes direct skin-to-skin contact with mpox rashes or scabs, and contact with bodily fluids like saliva, mucus, or lesions around the anus, rectum, or vagina.
2. Intimate Contact: This involves oral, anal, or vaginal sex, as well as touching the genitals or anus. Hugging, kissing, and prolonged face-to-face interactions can also spread the virus.
3. Contaminated Objects: Mpox can spread through contact with objects, fabrics, and surfaces that have been used by someone with mpox, such as clothing, bedding, towels, or sex toys.
4. Infected Animals: The virus can be transmitted from animals to humans through direct contact with infected animals, their fluids, or waste.
1. Close Personal Contact: This includes direct skin-to-skin contact with mpox rashes or scabs, and contact with bodily fluids like saliva, mucus, or lesions around the anus, rectum, or vagina.
2. Intimate Contact: This involves oral, anal, or vaginal sex, as well as touching the genitals or anus. Hugging, kissing, and prolonged face-to-face interactions can also spread the virus.
3. Contaminated Objects: Mpox can spread through contact with objects, fabrics, and surfaces that have been used by someone with mpox, such as clothing, bedding, towels, or sex toys.
4. Infected Animals: The virus can be transmitted from animals to humans through direct contact with infected animals, their fluids, or waste.
Mpox situation in Africa ‘very worrying’, virus expected to arrive in S’pore: Ong Ye Kung
SINGAPORE – The mpox outbreak in Africa and other places is “very worrying”, and Singapore should expect the virus to arrive at its shores.
Giving an update on Aug 17, Health Minister Ong Ye Kung said the current risk of an outbreak in Asia and Singapore from Africa is low as there are no direct flights to the affected areas in the continent. However, the virus, which has seen a rapid surge in several African countries, is expected to spread to the Middle East and Europe which Singapore has flight connections to.
“I would say, in general, this is a very worrying situation, especially for the African continent. But I think we should work on the basis that mpox will arrive in Asia. And probably, Singapore will be one of the first places to find cases because of our flight connections (to Middle East and Europe),” said Mr Ong, who was speaking on the sidelines of a skills and career fair in Bukit Canberra, Sembawang.
“This is something worrying. We should be on alert. We should expect it to arrive in Singapore, and then when it does, respond appropriately and effectively.”
Mpox, formerly known as monkeypox, causes flu-like symptoms and pus-filled lesions on the body. A new sub-variant – clade I – has alarmed global health experts due to its ability to spread easily through close, personal contact.
The World Health Organisation (WHO) on Aug 14 declared mpox a global public health emergency for the second time in two years.
The current outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has seen 27,000 cases and more than 1,100 deaths since January 2023, largely among children.
WHO director-general Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said the emergence of a new clade of mpox, its rapid spread in eastern DRC, and the reporting of cases in several neighbouring countries are “very worrying”.
In the past month, more than 100 laboratory-confirmed cases of the new sub-variant have been reported in four countries neighbouring the DRC that have not reported mpox before: Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda.
Citing experts, WHO said the true number of cases may be higher as a large proportion of clinically compatible cases have not been tested.
It added that several outbreaks of different clades of mpox have occurred in various countries, with different modes of transmission and levels of risk.
Following the outbreak in the DRC and surrounding countries, Sweden on Aug 15 announced its first case of mpox caused by the clade I variant.
To date, all infections detected in Singapore have been the milder clade II ones, mostly during the 2022-23 global outbreak. There were 32 cases here in 2023, and 18 in 2022 from the time reporting of the disease started at end June that year.
The Republic has had 12 cases of mpox since January 2024, which the Ministry of Health (MOH) confirmed were from the clade II variant.
Mr Ong said when mpox spreads here, Singapore has to consider a few parameters to understand what it is dealing with.
First, there is a need to understand the virus’ severity rate. He noted that clade II has a fairly low fatality rate of 0.2 per cent – meaning for every 1,000 people who are infected, there are two deaths.
He added that the fatality rate of the clade I variant is about 3.5 per cent to 4 per cent, while the clade 1b variant has a fatality rate of 0.7 per cent.
Mr Ong said the fatality rate should not be taken lightly. When the Covid-19 pandemic first broke, its fatality rate was 4 per cent before vaccinations.
“Of course, these are numbers recorded from Africa... Africa has many healthcare challenges. (When mpox comes) to Singapore, with our healthcare system and our ability to treat the cases, we hope we can bring it (fatality rate) down significantly,” he added.
Second, Mr Ong said there is a need to observe who the virus affects.
He highlighted that mpox appears to affect children, adding that in Africa, where children are not vaccinated against smallpox, a “disproportionate number of children below 15” have been infected with the virus.
Lastly, there is a need to understand the virus’ transmissibility and mode of transmission.
The clade II variant was mostly transmitted among people engaged in high-risk sexual activities, while the clade I variant spreads among close contacts.
Mr Ong said: “On the other hand, there is no evidence to show that it is spreading like Covid-19, where it can spread far and wide through airborne particles.”
He added that MOH is monitoring the situation closely as mpox spreads to other countries, but added that Singaporeans should also be aware of the situation and keep themselves healthy.
“If you are healthy, you are less likely to be affected by all these diseases. It was the case for Covid-19 as well. Likewise, it will be the same for mpox,” he said.
MOH said on Aug 15 that Singapore’s healthcare system has the capability to effectively diagnose and manage mpox infections.
It has informed all medical practitioners and healthcare institutions to be vigilant in detecting and reporting all mpox cases, including those suspected to be clade I infections.
To reduce spread, close contacts of confirmed cases will be quarantined and monitored for up to 21 days from the date of last exposure.
SINGAPORE – The mpox outbreak in Africa and other places is “very worrying”, and Singapore should expect the virus to arrive at its shores.
Giving an update on Aug 17, Health Minister Ong Ye Kung said the current risk of an outbreak in Asia and Singapore from Africa is low as there are no direct flights to the affected areas in the continent. However, the virus, which has seen a rapid surge in several African countries, is expected to spread to the Middle East and Europe which Singapore has flight connections to.
“I would say, in general, this is a very worrying situation, especially for the African continent. But I think we should work on the basis that mpox will arrive in Asia. And probably, Singapore will be one of the first places to find cases because of our flight connections (to Middle East and Europe),” said Mr Ong, who was speaking on the sidelines of a skills and career fair in Bukit Canberra, Sembawang.
“This is something worrying. We should be on alert. We should expect it to arrive in Singapore, and then when it does, respond appropriately and effectively.”
Mpox, formerly known as monkeypox, causes flu-like symptoms and pus-filled lesions on the body. A new sub-variant – clade I – has alarmed global health experts due to its ability to spread easily through close, personal contact.
The World Health Organisation (WHO) on Aug 14 declared mpox a global public health emergency for the second time in two years.
The current outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has seen 27,000 cases and more than 1,100 deaths since January 2023, largely among children.
WHO director-general Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said the emergence of a new clade of mpox, its rapid spread in eastern DRC, and the reporting of cases in several neighbouring countries are “very worrying”.
In the past month, more than 100 laboratory-confirmed cases of the new sub-variant have been reported in four countries neighbouring the DRC that have not reported mpox before: Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda.
Citing experts, WHO said the true number of cases may be higher as a large proportion of clinically compatible cases have not been tested.
It added that several outbreaks of different clades of mpox have occurred in various countries, with different modes of transmission and levels of risk.
Following the outbreak in the DRC and surrounding countries, Sweden on Aug 15 announced its first case of mpox caused by the clade I variant.
To date, all infections detected in Singapore have been the milder clade II ones, mostly during the 2022-23 global outbreak. There were 32 cases here in 2023, and 18 in 2022 from the time reporting of the disease started at end June that year.
The Republic has had 12 cases of mpox since January 2024, which the Ministry of Health (MOH) confirmed were from the clade II variant.
Mr Ong said when mpox spreads here, Singapore has to consider a few parameters to understand what it is dealing with.
First, there is a need to understand the virus’ severity rate. He noted that clade II has a fairly low fatality rate of 0.2 per cent – meaning for every 1,000 people who are infected, there are two deaths.
He added that the fatality rate of the clade I variant is about 3.5 per cent to 4 per cent, while the clade 1b variant has a fatality rate of 0.7 per cent.
Mr Ong said the fatality rate should not be taken lightly. When the Covid-19 pandemic first broke, its fatality rate was 4 per cent before vaccinations.
“Of course, these are numbers recorded from Africa... Africa has many healthcare challenges. (When mpox comes) to Singapore, with our healthcare system and our ability to treat the cases, we hope we can bring it (fatality rate) down significantly,” he added.
Second, Mr Ong said there is a need to observe who the virus affects.
He highlighted that mpox appears to affect children, adding that in Africa, where children are not vaccinated against smallpox, a “disproportionate number of children below 15” have been infected with the virus.
Lastly, there is a need to understand the virus’ transmissibility and mode of transmission.
The clade II variant was mostly transmitted among people engaged in high-risk sexual activities, while the clade I variant spreads among close contacts.
Mr Ong said: “On the other hand, there is no evidence to show that it is spreading like Covid-19, where it can spread far and wide through airborne particles.”
He added that MOH is monitoring the situation closely as mpox spreads to other countries, but added that Singaporeans should also be aware of the situation and keep themselves healthy.
“If you are healthy, you are less likely to be affected by all these diseases. It was the case for Covid-19 as well. Likewise, it will be the same for mpox,” he said.
MOH said on Aug 15 that Singapore’s healthcare system has the capability to effectively diagnose and manage mpox infections.
It has informed all medical practitioners and healthcare institutions to be vigilant in detecting and reporting all mpox cases, including those suspected to be clade I infections.
To reduce spread, close contacts of confirmed cases will be quarantined and monitored for up to 21 days from the date of last exposure.
FUTURE PERFECT
Mpox never stopped spreading in Africa. Now it’s an international public health emergency. Again.
A first case outside of the continent has been detected in Sweden. What’s next?
by Jess Craig
Updated Aug 16
Mpox never stopped spreading in Africa. Now it’s an international public health emergency. Again.
A first case outside of the continent has been detected in Sweden. What’s next?
by Jess Craig
Updated Aug 16
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