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Does the upcoming August QR will represent the peak where we will see a massive surge in revenue and a very significant surge in profit? , or does the higher ASP become the new normal?"
Will the market revalue Hartalega not just on this single quarter, but on their ability to sustain these US$26-28 ASPs through 2027 and beyond?
Based on the daily chart (1D), the technical indicators are flashing a strongly bullish signal, aligning perfectly with the fundamental story regarding ASP hikes and the Middle East disruptions.
Here is the interpretation of the indicators:
1. Price & Moving Averages (Bullish Breakout)
· Action: The stock is trading at RM 1.230, up +4.24% today. It has broken out of a tight consolidation zone.
· Signal: It has decisively moved above both the MA50 (Green line at 1.045) and is well positioned above the MA200 (Blue line). This is a classic "Golden Cross" confirmation in progress. The price staying above these major moving averages indicates the long-term trend has shifted from bearish/cautious to bullish/confirming recovery.
2. Volume (Massive Confirmation)
· Signal: There is a massive surge in volume (42.804M). This is much higher than the average volume over the previous weeks.
· Meaning: The breakout at 1.230 is legitimate. It is not a "fake-out" move. Institutional players or big funds are aggressively buying in the lead-up to the anticipated earnings boom.
3. RSI (Strong Momentum Without Overheating)
· Level: The RSI 14 is at 63.44.
· Meaning: The stock is gaining very strong momentum. An RSI reading between 50 and 70 indicates a healthy uptrend. It hasn't crossed into overbought territory (above 70) yet, meaning there is still potential for the price to run to RM 1.30 or RM 1.40 before needing a major pullback.
4. MACD (Turning Positive)
· Status: The MACD lines are sitting at 0.030 and 0.029, with the histogram barely visible.
· Meaning: Earlier, the MACD was showing a bearish/signal line crossing down. However, with today's surge, the two lines are converging for a fresh bullish crossover. If the price closes strong at 1.230, expect the MACD to turn fully green in the next session. This confirms that the momentum is shifting back in favor of the bulls.
💡 Overall Technical Conclusion
This chart confirms the "Revaluation Story" is beginning.
The market is clearly anticipating the August QR where the US$26-28 thousand ASP numbers will appear in the P&L statement.
Caution: The trend is your friend, but chasing the exact top of a large candle is risky.
KUALA LUMPUR (May 8): New Paradigm Research in a note on Friday said it expects glove makers’ earnings to double in one to two quarters on glove makers' unique opportunity to raise prices above and beyond direct cost impacts.
This is supported by industry-wide price adjustments, US tariffs limiting Chinese imports, and delayed increases in gas costs for producers.
The research house is more optimistic than the market, forecasting 60%–80% higher earnings for glove makers because it believes they can raise selling prices despite higher nitrile costs. However, it also notes that prices and costs remain volatile and assumes a 5% drop in demand. While the market is cautious due to recent data showing glove prices fell in March. However, nitrile material costs have clearly increased.
New Paradigm believes most market forecasts focus on sales volume instead of price increases and have not fully included profit margin improvements. It expects that as earnings improve over the next two quarters, glove company valuations will likely rise as well.
Since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the nitrile prices have surged as the closure disrupted naphtha supply flows into Asia. Nitrile, which makes up roughly 40% of glove production costs, is derived from naphtha.
Malaysian glove makers source around 65% of their nitrile requirements from South Korea, which itself relies heavily on Middle Eastern naphtha imports.
New Paradigm estimates nitrile prices have risen about 60% on average since the conflict began. Still, the research house noted that the entire global glove industry, including Chinese competitors, is facing similar cost pressures, too. This allows Malaysian manufacturers to pass higher costs to customers more effectively, it added.
“Demand for medical disposable gloves is non-discretionary in nature,” New Paradigm said, adding that substitution to latex gloves is not viable because of allergy risks and the natural rubber gloves also tend to be less durable and not suitable for all applications.
The sector’s pricing power is also being strengthened by the US’ Section 301 tariffs on Chinese glove imports, which have effectively priced low-margin Chinese gloves out of the US market. Malaysian manufacturers now account for more than 60% of US glove imports by volume, while China’s market share has fallen to below 10% from over 30% previously, the house added.
“The bias for conservatism and the “wait and see” approach present an opportunity — once the earnings delivery trickles in, the upgrades to expectations could spur a more substantive rerating for valuations as well,” New Paradigm added.
It said that since the Covid-19 boom years, analysts have not significantly raised their earnings forecasts in the middle of the year.
The firm estimates that Top Glove Corp Bhd (KL:TOPGLOV) could see net profit almost double sequentially, while Hartalega Holdings Bhd (KL:HARTA) could record around 60% sequential earnings growth.
Shares of major Malaysian glove manufacturers rebounded on Friday morning, with Top Glove, Hartalega and Kossan rising between 6% and 8%. The gains coincided with the market reaction to reports of a hantavirus outbreak in South America.
CSG International Research analyst William Wo said it maintains a cautious view on the sector after noting that the World Health Organization had described the Andes strain as having a fatality rate of about 35%, although human-to-human transmission remains rare. Symptoms include fever, chills and breathing difficulties that may only appear several weeks after infection.
Mr Nic Ng big trap is u talking only..........this way comment who have talking harta big trap.........Hahahaha.......see share talking la,didint all share up rebound down is call lie,big trap this kind words de,up jo,have 1 days or some moment must will back original price de or down more de.............dun play la...........