G L's comment on PTRANS. All Comments

G L
7 Like · Reply
Share price too expensive. If u minus Project Facilitation fee which is one off in nature, the net profit will only be RM 10 to 14 million. Using PE of 15, this company is worth at most RM 200 million, translated to share price, PTRANS fair value is only RM 0.32.

Project Facilitation fee won't last long, this share is actually very expensive.

SECOND, this company is paying much less tax than other companies because of tax incentives, which do not last forever. Without it, profit is much lower
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su sy
u can go comment at DATAPRP....
Like · 5 months · translate
G L
No. I rather buy Dataprep. At least got sentiment support. This stock no sentiment and poor fundamentals.
1 Like · 5 months · translate
G L
Read the annual report and analyse the figures carefully. The terminal business is not a profitable business and offer a mediocre after tax return on capital. Heavy Capex and low returns are a bad combination. My FV for this company is only RM 0.45, which is actually quite high compared to its Adjusted Earnings per Share. I give it a premium because the moat for this business is strong.
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1 Like · 5 months · translate
Admiral Adama
I am curious. What made u said their terminal biz is not profitable? Did i miss something?
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G L
Did you deduct the project Facilitation fee? Without that, the terminal business has quite returns
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Paul Chew
There are 100 terminal owned by local council out there. I think project facilitation fee still able to sustain for several years.
Whether IPTT is profitable. Try look at profit margin of reits that collect rental and promotional fees which is more or less same as IPTT
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Like · 5 months · translate
G L
I disagree.
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G L
Exactly, we should demand PTRANS for far cheaper price from existing shareholders. I don't get why are fools buying it at such a high price
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Paul Chew
Actually management has disclose PFF before. PFF is to redevelop the old bus terminal, whether ptrans own it after the renovation, or ptrans charges on the PFF fees.
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G L
I also watched the interview. The PFF is clearly not sustainable and the current earning is clearly not sustainable. Which means we cannot use current EPS to project its fair value. If you remove the PFF, the net profit is only RM 10 million.
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Like · 5 months · translate
G L
SECOND, its current tax rate is too low and is not sustainable. When the reinvestment allowance runs out, it has to pay 24% tax rate. Its actual net profit therefore is only RM 7 million. At PE of 20 since this is its long run growth rate, the stock is only worth RM 140 million.
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YW Coulson
My technical chart tells me it will up very soon. Is your FA outdated ?
2 Like · 5 months · translate
Max Crowe
Whatever GL sells, I will buy. Ptrans going to hit rm1. soon
2 Like · 5 months · translate
YW Coulson
Rm 1.1 to Rm 1.2 my short term targeted price
2 Like · 5 months · translate
Edward SJ
but still cannot cross state. why is price up today ?
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Paul Chew
Lol is cross state the only element to affect share price ?
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Petersburg
Invest for future...not for seeing now covid-19 situation.....it will rebound very fast if can cross state...
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Petersburg
Don't jugde the price is expensive or not...for the good company...double or triple r normal...see some gloves company....even lose business also hit higher...
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G L
It is not about pandemic or not. It is expensive because the Project Facilitation Fee which comprises RM 29 million or almost 80% of the net profit is one off and is not sustainable. Plus, the tax rate is abnormally low because of incentives. If you remove the two unsustainable components, the net profit falls to RM 7 million ringgit. Which reflects the actual earning power of this company
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1 Like · 5 months · translate
G L
In other words, you are not paying PE 12 for this company. You are paying PE 40
1 Like · 5 months · translate
Paul Chew
Different player different perspective. PFF contributes to earnings and cash flows to the company, as well as lower tax payment. In fact, management can utilise the money to expand their business, like BIDOR and TRONOH terminal.
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su sy
currently, rent out at discount rate. rental rate will be back to normal when recovery of economic. this will contribute to net profit too
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YW Coulson
Ok . Jftech PE88 profit 4millions average eps 1.4 now rm 1.22, ok understand
1 Like · 5 months · translate
Max Crowe
When company initiates SBB, price will go up accordingly. It's a 10% proposal. 66M share buyback
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Paul Chew
No. It’s normal procedure annually, announced before AGM, somehow its only proposal only
1 Like · 5 months · translate
Sunny Lau
when the AGM will be announced?
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Paul Chew
It’s 25 May
1 Like · 4 months · translate
Kaka Milan
Hi GL, what do you mean by project facilitation fees??
You mean PAT10m~14m per annual??
Like · 4 months · translate
David Chan
卖完,是时候说 byebye 等了太久
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Kim Kit Chin
yes.the PFF and tax incentive removed then will be half naked to PTRaNS
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G L
Remove PFF from 2015 to 2020, there was zero profit growth. PFF as of 2020 is RM 32 million clean profit, that is over its total net profit of RM 43 million for 2020. Just think
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su sy
actually why keep mention PFF. how do u know is one off ? all the while there is PFF for years. Meanwhile, PFF also part of revenue, why have to remove.
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G L
Because it is not sustainable
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G L
Better invest in tech stocks for short term profits.
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Max Crowe
GL. Investors like you sure lose money and die a slow death. As a retiree, I am making money. The slow and steady way.
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G L
What I am saying is PTRANS is for short term profits.
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Max Crowe
Ptrans is not for short term. All short term investors lose money most of the time. No stocks should be invested as short term.
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G L
PFF is short term gain. Current PE is inaccurate. Its real PE is more like 30, which is not justifiable given its low ROC
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Petersburg
Don't talk stupid and nonsense comment again lah.....the investors here r not foolish.....
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G L
You never read its AR?
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Kim Kit Chin
i see their PFF record high!power
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G L
Unfortunately, the share price also record high power
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Paul Chew
I don’t understand, why u hard hard want to deduct PFF from its earnings. What the head? If you are sure that PTRANS is not going to benefit from recognition fees anymore then only u make justification.
1 Like · 4 months · translate
Kim Kit Chin
"A copy of the FFA(Facilitation Fund Agreement) is available for inspection during the office hours from 9.00 a.m. to 5.00 p.m. from Monday to Friday (except for public holidays) at the registered office of PTRANS at D-3-7 Greentown Square, Jalan Dato’ Seri Ahmad Said, 30450 Ipoh, Perak Darul Ridzuan for a period of 3 months from the date of this announcement(5th April 2021)."
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Like · 4 months · translate
Kings Trading
@Admiral Adama, interested to know more on how u think their terminal biz is a very profitable biz? Mind to share?
Like · 3 months · translate
yutaka tong
a lot of bus company will go bankrupt after mco. lower rental for ptrans
1 Like · 3 months · translate
G L
That's bullshit. The terminal biz has very low rental yield. You are essentially paying for bus terminal consultant business, not a profitable bus terminal business.
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Kim Kit Chin
AGM biggest question are surrounded by PFF
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Admiral Adama
@Kings Trading My bad. I actually meant the whole IPTT is very profitable and i was confused about PFF with TMF. GL was right, it is all about the sustainability of the PFF.
1 Like · 3 months · translate
steve ryan
hey guys, what do u mean by PFF? why is not sustainable?
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Admiral Adama
well the qr is within my expectation as bus and petrol station biz only make a small contribution to the profit. It is quite misleading when everyone think ptrans is a bus operator like some other rubbish bus operators in the bursa. The only concern is how long can the current pff last and how soon can they replenish the order book, which i hv completely hv no idea.
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Admiral Adama
steve, pff is something like the revenue from construction project. u lose the revenue once the project is finished unless u get another project. That's y order book is important.
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G L
Adama what baffles me is the they said the PFF is usually 2% of the bus terminal GDV. But they have recorded RM 30 million in PFF last year. Are they suggesting that two bus projects have RM 1.5 Billion in total GDV? I think it is very not clear where the money is exactly coming from. And the PFF is actually even higher this year.
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Like · 3 months · translate
G L
Terminal Meru has recorded a flat RM 10 to 13 million since IPO from A&P and rental. But the construction cost is almost RM 200 over million, the ROI is stupidly low.
1 Like · 3 months · translate
G L
They have mentioned the PFF will peak 7 years later. I can't help but think the project they are talking about must be a huge bus station project, probably like Sunway BRT. I don't want to speculate but the only major ongoing bus project is in Johor
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Like · 3 months · translate
Admiral Adama
where u get the info that pff will peak 7 years later? and such a low profit from terminal meru since ipo, really?
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G L
Without PFF. I was very interested in PTRANS. So I watched their entire interview. They said it will peak around 7 years later
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G L
The A&P and rental combined is yielding only around 6% return on investment. Could be higher if we don't use the net profit, but the gross profit instead. Subsequent terminals will show the exact ROI. Difficult to assess the ROI for the first
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Like · 3 months · translate
Chloe Wong
Customer A as PFF contributor so mystery...
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G L
Wong which one is you? Left, middle or right?
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Kim Kit Chin
Y20 PFF RM39.55Mil, meaning the total project size for Y20 is RM1.58Bil? wow...thats amazing
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Paul Chew
There are 100+ terminals in Malaysia and most of them manage by Local Council. So Customer A is government lah
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Kim Kit Chin
nope, customer A is a third party company which mentioned in their prospectus
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Just A Guy
Yes the PFF is from third party and it's getting higher every single year. They said it's 2~3% from the total project cost. But it is highly unlikely we have billions of bus terminal project every year. Even more expensive than building Airport
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1 Like · 3 months · translate
Edward SJ
history has been proven that pff and revenue keep increase. so I have no worry on it's financial ability. Im just worry how and will they wan to move the share price up
1 Like · 3 months · translate
Kim Kit Chin
Or could it be the GDV for project is not limited to the terminal itself only? but it is the amount of overall Mixed development eg:Kampar Putra sentral + shopping mall + hotel then the project value would be much bigger compared to bus terminal itself normally cost at around RM120mil
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Like · 3 months · translate
Just A Guy
Kim, normally project that big will be reported by news. Based on last year PFF, the project value in 2020 itself has to be around 1.3b to 1.98b. Try compare to the total cost of terminal kampar abt 280m.
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Kim Kit Chin
ya.i meant bus terminal is just small part of a mixed development project, Terminal kampar sentral is actually a mixed development
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Just A Guy
128m is the cost of terminal (The Edge). 284m is the total cost (Annual report key audit matters). FYI, cost of KLIA2 is around 4B. So the GDV of projects that they involved in past 3 years is about an international airport lol
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Just A Guy
Alright I will stop here. Remember these are merely discussion. Not a buy/sell call, I am not responsible for your investment decision and profit/loss. Good luck everyone
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G L
Noted. I have acted on your advice and sold 80k lots.
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G L
How much do u charge for Commision?
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G L
Or at zero consideration?
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Just A Guy
GL, I only found out these issues because you mentioned them. I should be the one thanking you for sharing with us lol
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G L
No, i have already acted on ur advice. Prepare for LOD if i lose money.
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Just A Guy
I actually sold because of your post. Thank you for pointing out that you are liable for anyone who sold after reading your post. Such a good man GL
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G L
Thanks for your advice. I will sell at your advice.
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Just A Guy
37 days ago, you said fair value is RM0.32. Then after price drop, you change your position and said fair value RM0.98. Maybe we should report you?
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G L
FV of RM 0.32 ignores PFF. And that was not a TP. Report what? You a joker?
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Just A Guy
No, I am not joking. You said anything below RM0.98 is fine, you won't lose money. That's a buy call. No? Do you even have a license to issue such statement?
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Peng Zhong Wong
just read but make the wise decision yourself, many banker kaki/pro like to spread "future" opinion, rubbish like opr will drop to 1.5, full mco...
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G L
It is not an opinion. It is a fact based on the financial statement and management disclosures. However, no one can quantify the impact.
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Smile Book
You are so smart, good boy. Don't fight la...
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Admiral Adama
Based in the info from the latest investor briefing, the rm39m pff for FY20 was derived from 6 projects instead of one, which means each project has only average project development cost of rm260m. Now this value looks more reasonable.

IMO pff should be able to last for quite some time since government is still pushing for a better and modern bus terminal services and there r still many lousy old school bus terminal out there.
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Smile Book
Currently order book of PFF can last for at least 1 year. Currently advise 5-6 terminals. That is just my thoughts after attending online sharing from company.
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Kim Kit Chin
PFF for FY20 are from 6 projects? but in other investor briefing i heard she said from 2 projects only
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Smile Book
2 project is for Terminal Management Contract. 5-6 projects(no disclose) is for PFF. If my thoughts is correct.
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Smile Book
Kindly give your opinion based on the data company provide. Don't simply give nonsense hypothesis...
Like · 3 months · translate