All Comments on CYPARK Reload

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Update: 17/Nov/2020

1) Intro

Malaysia Gov has shown unwavering commitment in meeting 20% of RE by 2025, that would be 6,000 MW in total. The Gov has awarded more than 2,000 MW of RE, where 1,634 MW (82%) is from solar energy (LSS Fast Track, LSS1, LSS2 & LSS3). Out of the 2,000 MW of RE, Cypark has already secured about 200 MW (10%) and targets to secure 1,000 MW of RE by 2025.

According to TNB AR 2019, Gas & Coal will continue to be the main source of power generation in the medium term, but there will be an increased uptake of renewable energy (RE) generation, especially solar.
- Coal (53.9%)
- Gas (42.30%)
- Hydro (3.1%)
- Solar (0.6%)
- Others (0.1%)
Cost of generating RE is getting cheaper as technology improves. The cost of generating Gas is at RM0.2322 /kWh while the cost of generating Solar is as low as RM0.1399 /kWh - LSS4. The industry foresees the future LSS projects will have bigger capacities of more than 1000 MW to meet 20% of RE and Malaysia Gov also targeting 6 x WTE Plants soon.

Malaysia needs US$8 billion investment to achieve 20% renewable energy target by 2025.



2) On-Going Projects

LSS1 - 15 MWac
- targeted Commercial Operation Date: 31 Dec 2020
- Daud (CEO) estimated RM10 million annually
- This will contribute to FYE 2021

LSS2 - 3 x 30 MWac = 90 MWac
- targeted Commercial Operation Date: 31 Dec 2020
- Daud (CEO) estimated RM25 million annually
- This will contribute to FYE 2021

WTE - 20 to 25 MWac
- Due to MCO, Cypark has yet to announce the completion date
- Daud (CEO) estimated RM80 million annually
- This will contribute to FYE 2021

LSS3 - 100 MWac
- TNB has inked three LSS3 Power Purchase Agreements.
- Daud (CEO) estimated RM50-60 million annually
- This will contribute to FYE 2022

Net Energy Metering (NEM) ProjectS
- Unknown MWac

Once the above projects are completed, it will be owned, operate & managed by Cypark



3) Future Projects secured (announced )

- MOU w/ Negeri Sembilan Corp - 50MW Solar Project (NEM)
- MOU w/ Kedah Gov - 100MW Solar Project (NEM)
- MOU w/ Petronas Chemicals - WTE Plant Project
- To add 5MWac to 10MWac of biomass/gas per year
- To supply RE directly to end client ( testing phase)



4) Forecast Revenue

Cypark targets to achieve 500 MWdc by FY2022. According to Daud (CEO), Cypark is targeting a stable recurring revenue to be generated from the sales of energy (Green Tech and RE), which will make up 50% of the group’s total revenue by 2022 from the current 16%.

Cypark's revenue comes from four segments as follow:
* Data from Cypark AR2019 *
- RM262 | 73% - Environmental engineering
- RM34 | 9.4% - Landscaping and infrastructure
- RM5 | 1.3% - Maintenance works
- RM59 | 16.3% - Green Tech and RE

Cypark "Green tech and RE" revenue (MYR)
- FY2014 - 34,954,629
- FY2015 - 39,665,233
- FY2016 - 46,544,314
- FY2017 - 48,713,260
- FY2018 - 48,784,125
- FY2019 - 59,020,364
- FY2020 - 65,856,536

Cypark future recurring revenue (Estimation), factoring in their On-Going Projects once completed (Revenue in MYR)
- FY2021 - 161 millions +
59+(10/12*8)+(75/12*8)+(80/12*8) + NEM
- FY2022 - 265 millions +
59+10+75+80+(50/12*10) + NEM

Cypark expects to complete all three projects (LSS 1 & 2 and WTE) by the targeted COD 31 December 2020. For FYE2021, i have multiply by 8 months instead of 10 months (Financial ends at Oct) to have a more conservative forecast.

From their latest QR, Cypark owns approximately 47 MWdc of solar plants In 2020. This capacity is expected to increase to approximately 200 MWdc by early 2021. With only 47 MWdc, the sales of energy already contributing about 65 millions revenue annually. 200 MWdc definitely will contribute positively to Cypark revenue.



5) Dividend

Cypark dividend policy is to distribute not less than 25% of its net profit to the shareholders, provided that such payout would not be detrimental to the operating cash flow as well as business development plans.



6) Cash Flow

According to AR2019, the remaining maturities of the borrowings are as follows:
- 184.8 million - On demand or within 1 year
- 53.2 million - More than 1 year and less than 2 years
- 220.2 million - More than 2 years and less than 5 years
- 715 million - 5 years or more
The reason of huge borrowing is due to building new power plants where large upfront capital investment are required.

Cypark has issued RM550 million Sukuk in FY2019. The RM550 million Sukuk is backed by the projects’ anticipated long-term recurring income from selling energy to TNB for the next 21 years. During 4th Sept 2020, Cypark has issued New RM97.25 million Sukuk ( upto RM500 million )

Generally, Sukuk has a tenure of up to 22 years commencing from the date of the first issuance. On top of that, Sukuk has a fixed profit payments which allows Cypark to determine it at a lower profit rate and enjoy the profit payment savings in the event of an increase in profit rate in the future. As long as Cypark is able to secure more projects in the coming future, logically the recurring income from selling energy to TNB for the next 21 years will also increase.

In the current scenario, it is expected to have more cash outflow than cash inflow due to the Company’s capital investment in the projects and the cash inflow can only be noticed clearly upon the commencement of the commercial operation date (“COD”) of the projects. The Company is expecting a significant amount of revenue and cash inflow to be generated in FY2021 from the completion of LSS 1 & 2 and WTE Plant.

However, Cypark is also expecting a significant cash outflow in year 2021 and 2022 due to capital investment of LSS 4 project and LSS 5 project.



7) Debt Collection (trade receivables)

Cypark has significant amount of trade receivables that is past due for more than 90 days. In AGM2020, Cypark mentioned the outstanding amount is mainly due by Gov agencies. The changes of Gov had impacted longer time in the processing of Cypark’s outstanding trade receivables and this is common whenever changes of administration happen.



DISCLAIMER:
All the information mentioned herein is solely for the purpose of education and references only.

REFERENCE:
- Cypark Annual Report 2019 , 2018, 2017
- Cypark latest Quarterly Report
- Cypark AGM 2020
- TNB Annual Report 2019
- http://ir.chartnexus.com/cypark/docs/agms/Summary%20of%20Key%20Matters%20Discussed%20at%20the%20Postponed%2015th%20AGM%20held%20on%2018%20June%202020.pdf
- https://www.nst.com.my/news/nation/2019/09/518408/malaysia-needs-rm33bil-investment-hit-renewable-energy-target
- https://www.st.gov.my/contents/2020/Copy%20of%20LSS%20Progress%20By%20Region%20(Q1).pdf
- https://www.power-technology.com/comment/malaysia-needs-us8-billion-investment-to-achieve-20-renewable-energy-target-by-2025/
- https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/govt-targets-six-wastetoenergy-plants-2021
- https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/better-earnings-visibility-prospects-cypark
- https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/cypark-sees-doubledigit-revenue-growth
- https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/tnb-awards-three-lss3-projects-total-capacity-29088-mwac
- https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/cypark-reorganises-loans-address-debtcash-flow-mismatch
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Ken Law
资金去了ecoworld手痒。哈哈哈。
Like · 1 day · translate
Nicholas Mok
上了那么多 回调就呱呱叫 哪里有一直上的
2 Like · 7 hours · translate
陈强强
1 Like · Reply
今天黑色星期五我大胆预测这支废股会大跌崩盘,跌到1.25左右
Hamzah Aminudin
Why would u say something terrible like that? This industry got plentiful opportunities for growth, LSS4 and the world shifting for renewable energy this company business prospect is huge.
1 Like · 1 day · translate
小弟路过问题最多
@hamzah he is just a piece of cockroache. no need to bother this mom less kids
Like · 1 day · translate
Sk Teo
1 Like · Reply
today go to 1.60
Ming Jeet Khoo
hopefully can up to 1.60
Like · 1 day · translate
Calvin
Gogogo everyone huat ahhh
Like · 1 day · translate
Calvin
2 Like · Reply
那个人delete comment 和尚,有本事就不要delete 说话不经大脑
Calvin
哈哈 大家别理那两个了,总之我们一起發發發。让他们眼红吧 哈哈
3 Like · 2 days · translate
Tommy Sheng
眼不见为静 我直接Block 哈哈哈哈
1 Like · 1 day · translate
Nicholas Mok
2 Like · Reply
有人要准备跟我一起捡榴莲??不要抢 还有很多
Nicholas Mok
长期上升股,回调买就对了
Like · 3 days · translate
Jack Chan
Today up up up
Like · 3 days · translate
Edward Tan
3 Like · Reply
结束Cypark的投资啦~ let’s go Cypark! 我也已经在美股部署First solar了 价位在$96.. 没有买卖建议,跟的是趋势,等的是未来,守的是价值!
Edward Tan
回调的时候不适合套利哦, 回调应该是要加码的
我1.51出票了 1.25++的票。 现在等1.3入场
3 Like · 4 days · translate
Edward Tan
这家的大股东提早过年了
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MOHD HADI ABD RAHMAN
Like · Reply
Fake Breakout....
Mohd Alif Jahidi
back to 1.000
Like · 4 days · translate
Calvin
Just because of mco 2.0 (panic sell), why u all say until like the sky going to fall soon ??‍♂️
Like · 4 days · translate
Syed Syafeeq Syed Hussin
Like · Reply
alamak drop plak...baru entry 1.46
S. A.
org lock profit rasanya. masih uptrend. ini hari dia buka pedang tajam.
Like · 4 days · translate
Ranger
Stay tenang...kena wash org yg kena trap kat atas dulu....
Like · 4 days · translate
Andy Choo
1 Like · Reply
烟花放完,曲终人散。留下的各位新股东不要灰心,要相信cypark是未来股,找老公老婆好像cypark这样的最好!被套了没事,最重要努力创造未来!
Jane Ng
Where is the monk.? He run off at 1.58 Smart guy.
Like · 4 days · translate
Admiral Adama
太阳能股收皮了。见财化水,他妈的算你狠。 :'(
1 Like · 4 days · translate
陈强强
1 Like · Reply
我和我的团队看了这支股的qr不是很理想,再加上政府取消hrs的利空消息。星期一应该会跌到1.05
Anson Sin
垃圾就是垃圾,尘呛呛
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Calvin
陈陈,我还hold 叻。快来酸我们啦 哈哈
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