Hi Zi Wei, highway concession typically last for 50 to 60 years. The initial amount of capital invested for highway constructions will eventually be recovered via tolls collections. In its statement of financial position, it’s the infrastructure development expenditure reported under non current assets. Sometimes it’s also known as intangible assets. There are 3 risks that I am seeing: (1) The problem with WCE is the project schedule; dragging/delayed. 4 out 11 sections completed and there are other issues in between the sections (2) briefly looked at its latest quarter report and financial health for wcehb is a challenge; long term debt is high; financing for the constructions. (3) to be monitored - possible revenue risk. There is an existing highway parallel to WCE which is the north south highway with interchange to WCE at section 4 and section 11. Will motorists prefer north south highway than WCE? Right now, 4 sections opened last year and early this year. Have to continue monitor it’s revenue generations from toll concessions. Logically should be growing. Having said that, one positive risk would be current share price is near decade low of 0.15. MCO will impact revenue generations from the 4 sections and construction progress but that would have been factored in. How much can it go lower? These are just my opinions and could be wrong. Hope it helps with your research.
I am not sure Tze Hong. The hot topic right now seems to be snap polls. What we have seen so far is monetary policy from OPR perspectives. Fiscal policy related to gov spending and tax policies is the one to watch for. What you mentioned is on gov spending. My personal opinion should not be just that. That itself won’t be good enough. If you look at our country’s GDP, services contributed about 55%, industry about 38% and agri about 7%. There needs to be concerted effort in all areas to create demands, inflation and growth.
Yes, Hhc. It’s important to encourage others to think about their choices instead of just going with the flow. It’s the first step to make better and more thoughtful decisions.
Noted, Tze Hong. Have faith in your plans then. Quiet a few small caps construction counters that were active recently over the last two months and news of constructions revival/OPR reductions recently. Without solid fiscal spending announcement and plans, its just news that triggers excitement.
My apology that I have to reply in English as I have to depend on translation to read :) Sounds good, Hong Wei. I am in agreement with you on hibiscus :) I have hibiscus on hand and will continue to add when it offers attractive margins of safety. A bit more conservative but just to manage the volatility for a long term position.
Morning Tze Hong, I did not. You have any recommendations? If I recalled correctly, the main contractor is China’s Construction company. The previous gov negotiated the inflated contract to make it less taxing for Malaysia and add a requirement to use local subcontractors which is really good. Margins maybe thin but should be good enough. it was at 15% completion as of early of this year - before pandemic lockdowns. Initial plan of completion is 2026/2027 if not mistaken.
Lol, Edmond. Allan was just asking for opinions :) I am sure you saw something from the current distributions between buyers and sellers and it’s supply/demand levels. It’s rather interesting. New buyers seems to have confidence in future prospects while buyers that misses the earlier selling point is now selling at the same supply line. The new buyers will have to absorb the supply and once it is exhausted, the new buyers will be rewarded. Just my opinions, could be wrong.
Have faith in your own plans. Buying hibiscus is buying its oil and gas producing assets. It is a pure independent upstream player in O&G. It is similar to Petronas Carigali which is not listed if you will, but a smaller version of it. The production output is generally contracted out via POA. Personal opinion - strong mgmt, clean balance sheet and I like their forward looking vision and always ensuring their assets/reserves are sufficient to support their future goals :) Buy slowly (dollar cost averaging) to minimise the impact of volatility rather than trying to keep averaging down. Just my opinions, could be wrong. Hope it helps.
