Here’s a focused, up-to-date analysis of Public Bank Bhd (Bursa: PBBANK) covering your questions — trend, sustainability, dividend impact, major shareholders, strategic moves (mergers/takeovers), and price outlook.

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? 1. Current Price & Trend

? As of latest market data, PBBANK is trading around ~RM4.70–RM4.80 — near its 52-week high range of ~RM4.03–RM4.80. 
• The stock has shown a climbing trend over the past year driven by defensive banking fundamentals and dividend appeal. 
• Technical indicators previously showed overbought signals (which can prompt short-term profit taking). 
• Recent commentary indicated some profit taking and analyst caution about overvaluation in early 2026. 

Trend sustainability?
• Supportive factors: Strong capital base, consistent lending growth, low impaired loans, solid deposit funding, diversified income (insurance, bancassurance, unit trust), and stable dividend culture. 
• Pressure points: Net Interest Margin (NIM) compression from rate cuts, potential macro slowdowns, and earnings growth that may not be explosive — common in large banks. 

Bottom line: Uptrend can continue but likely moderate and range-bound, not parabolic, unless earnings or macro surprises emerge.

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?️ 2. Dividend in March — What to Expect

? Dividend timing: Historically, dividends are paid around March/April after the FY announcement.
➡ Analysts project a dividend of ~21 sen per share for FY2024, up from 19 sen in FY2023, with a target payout ratio of ~60% in 2025. 

? Before dividend:
• Stock may run up as investors buy for yield — dividend-capture demand.
• Often the price rises into ex-dividend date then dips slightly after distribution.

? After dividend:
• Price usually adjusts downward by the dividend amount on the ex-dividend date — standard market behavior.
• Medium-term direction will depend on earnings outlook and macro conditions, not just dividend.

Dividend sustainability: Analysts see the payout as covered comfortably by earnings and consistent with PBB’s long track record. 

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? 3. Major Shareholders & Ownership Structure

Based on the latest available filings:

Top shareholdings:
• Consolidated Teh Holdings Sdn. Bhd. ~21–22% (linked to founder’s estate) 
• Employees Provident Fund (EPF) ~17.9–18.4% 
• Kumpulan Wang Persaraan (KWAP) ~4.0% 
• General public and institutions make up the rest, with institutional holdings ~40–44%. 

Other notable small stakes include LPI Capital, AIA, global asset managers, etc. 

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? 4. Merger / Takeover Activity

Takeover (LPI Capital MGO):

Public Bank acquired ~44.15% of LPI Capital and launched a Mandatory General Offer (MGO) for the rest — but this MGO lapsed as they didn’t reach >50% acceptance. 
• Outcome: No full takeover of LPI.
• The acquisition still offers cross-selling synergies (insurance + banking), which analysts view as positive long-term growth. 

Share merger within Bursa:

Public Bank is in the process of merging its local and foreign share counters into a single listing code to simplify trading — not a takeover but a structural move. 

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? 5. Will the Stock Exceed RM5?

Analyst Targets & Valuation:
• Multiple broker forecasts target RM5.10–RM5.90 range. 
• A bullish target of RM5.90 implies >20% upside from current levels. 
• Some traders view a RM5+ level as possible but not guaranteed — depends on earnings delivery, rate environment, and macro confidence.

Valuation context:
• P/B and P/E metrics suggest the share is trading around a normal valuation for a stable bank, not beaten down. 
• If earnings growth slows or NIM compresses further, reaching RM5 quickly becomes less certain.

? Summary:
• Short-term (~3–6 months): RM5+ is possible if catalysts (dividend support, earnings, sector sentiment) align.
• Medium-term (12 months): Strong chance of surpassing RM5 if earnings remain stable and macro doesn’t deteriorate, given analyst targets.
• Long term: Bank business fundamentals and dividend yield support a valuation above RM5 if growth steadies.

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? Key Risks to Watch
• Continued NIM pressure if interest rates fall further. 
• Asset quality deterioration if economy weakens. 
• Macro risks (inflation, banking sector pressures).
• Dividend cuts in adverse scenarios.

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? Overall Takeaway (Quick Version)