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Rafie Jainuddin



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Joined Dec 2016

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As retailers mentality is much different than institution/nominees, I think when the time comes for market correction, this situation might become a trigger for another round of panic selling. But this is purely my assumption and personal opinion.
2 weeks · translate
I believe the island formation describe by Cheng is much related to term "Portnoy Top" that made famous in past weeks. The same situation also observed in our local market. The surged in trade volume and record high volume we have seen due to many new retails investors come to invest in stock market. In May, local retailers dominate 43% of total 118.5b volume traded. Local inst have 23%. The rest filled by foreign inst, local nominees and local PDT.
2 weeks · translate
On the H company recent news Cheng, TDO is an associates company with 11% H ownership. In your opinion, will the earning from TDO gonna give a significant contribution/impact to H financial?
3 weeks · translate
Thanks Cheng. Based on you sharing regards to 3 stages of market in recession 1) panic sell, 2) relief rally, 3) Previous low/new low, I found it really interesting to see the direction of market in coming weeks. I dig some KLCI history during 97/98 and 2008. In 97/98, after market losing nearly 800points in 97 and creating bottom in Jan98, relief rally run for 12weeks (gain 2++points) before market entering 22weeks bear market (loss around 450points) and creating new bottom (261points, 1 Sept 98). After that market dry for 5 weeks before it climbing up again. In 2008, from highest around 1500points region, market lost 360points in space of 8weeks creating bottom on 10 March 2008, before relief rally run for 10weeks (gain 150points) and market entering bear market for 23weeks and creating bottom at 800points region. After that market dry for nearly 20weeks before it start climbing up again. For 2020, at highest 1600points early Jan20, market losing nearly 400points and touch the lowest point on 19 March. Now we're at the 12th week since then (gain 380points) and market showing a correction signal today. 380points gain since Mid March make a V-shape recovery, which didn't happen during 97/98 and 2008. If taking 1590points at the highest point marked on Tuesday and assuming correction is happening in the coming weeks, 10% correction will touch 1431, 20% 1272, 30% 1113, and 40% 953. Interesting to monitor the market direction going forward and take it as learning opportunity.
3 weeks · translate
Hi Cheng, thank you for your detail explanation. Today Malaysia Industrial Production and Retails sales release, it was so far off from the forecast. Contraction of 32% for both. I think this might early indication on how bad the Q2 will be for retails and industrial section. We might see technical correction in Malaysia market soon?
3 weeks · translate
Hi Cheng, can you help to explain how FED decision in keeping their interest rate low will impact on Malaysia or Asia market? Can this be positive or negative or both?
3 weeks · translate
That's what I understand and correct me if I'm wrong also. It's like defensive play by company to protect share price. But need to analyze the timing and price of buyback, whether exercise been done at overprice level. Also to buy back shares company will need money, is this using their existing cash or they need to do loan to fund the buyback.
1 month · translate
I just put HLT under my study, just wanna see their growth. If you don't mind Cheng, did you have any look at KPOWER? Since Serbadk founder acquired majority shares of this company last year, they have quite a turnaround. Read company announcement they wanna propose new shares and do share splits afterward. Normallyy what is the purpose of company doing this share splits?
1 month · translate
Thanks Cheng. From their 2019 AR they secured 16 new lines order (10 from local customers) for the year, I tend to agree this number seems too small to account from Harta and Topglove expansion. On efficiency, I read that HLT have new technology to upgrade from 2 production lines to 3 lines, will keep watching if they can leverage on this. FY19 if first full year contribution from their glove business, it account for more than 60% of group revenue, but the profit margin seems too small <2%
1 month · translate
Hi Cheng, speaking of glove producer like Harta, supermx etc expansion plan, do you think HLT company will be really benefited? They're the only glove-dipping line provider in the Bursa that I'm aware of.
1 month · translate
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