Fork's comment on CYPARK. All Comments

Fork
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Update: 17/Nov/2020

1) Intro

Malaysia Gov has shown unwavering commitment in meeting 20% of RE by 2025, that would be 6,000 MW in total. The Gov has awarded more than 2,000 MW of RE, where 1,634 MW (82%) is from solar energy (LSS Fast Track, LSS1, LSS2 & LSS3). Out of the 2,000 MW of RE, Cypark has already secured about 200 MW (10%) and targets to secure 1,000 MW of RE by 2025.

According to TNB AR 2019, Gas & Coal will continue to be the main source of power generation in the medium term, but there will be an increased uptake of renewable energy (RE) generation, especially solar.
- Coal (53.9%)
- Gas (42.30%)
- Hydro (3.1%)
- Solar (0.6%)
- Others (0.1%)
Cost of generating RE is getting cheaper as technology improves. The cost of generating Gas is at RM0.2322 /kWh while the cost of generating Solar is as low as RM0.1399 /kWh - LSS4. The industry foresees the future LSS projects will have bigger capacities of more than 1000 MW to meet 20% of RE and Malaysia Gov also targeting 6 x WTE Plants soon.

Malaysia needs US$8 billion investment to achieve 20% renewable energy target by 2025.



2) On-Going Projects

LSS1 - 15 MWac
- targeted Commercial Operation Date: 31 Dec 2020
- Daud (CEO) estimated RM10 million annually
- This will contribute to FYE 2021

LSS2 - 3 x 30 MWac = 90 MWac
- targeted Commercial Operation Date: 31 Dec 2020
- Daud (CEO) estimated RM25 million annually
- This will contribute to FYE 2021

WTE - 20 to 25 MWac
- Due to MCO, Cypark has yet to announce the completion date
- Daud (CEO) estimated RM80 million annually
- This will contribute to FYE 2021

LSS3 - 100 MWac
- TNB has inked three LSS3 Power Purchase Agreements.
- Daud (CEO) estimated RM50-60 million annually
- This will contribute to FYE 2022

Net Energy Metering (NEM) ProjectS
- Unknown MWac

Once the above projects are completed, it will be owned, operate & managed by Cypark



3) Future Projects secured (announced )

- MOU w/ Negeri Sembilan Corp - 50MW Solar Project (NEM)
- MOU w/ Kedah Gov - 100MW Solar Project (NEM)
- MOU w/ Petronas Chemicals - WTE Plant Project
- To add 5MWac to 10MWac of biomass/gas per year
- To supply RE directly to end client ( testing phase)



4) Forecast Revenue

Cypark targets to achieve 500 MWdc by FY2022. According to Daud (CEO), Cypark is targeting a stable recurring revenue to be generated from the sales of energy (Green Tech and RE), which will make up 50% of the group’s total revenue by 2022 from the current 16%.

Cypark's revenue comes from four segments as follow:
* Data from Cypark AR2019 *
- RM262 | 73% - Environmental engineering
- RM34 | 9.4% - Landscaping and infrastructure
- RM5 | 1.3% - Maintenance works
- RM59 | 16.3% - Green Tech and RE

Cypark "Green tech and RE" revenue (MYR)
- FY2014 - 34,954,629
- FY2015 - 39,665,233
- FY2016 - 46,544,314
- FY2017 - 48,713,260
- FY2018 - 48,784,125
- FY2019 - 59,020,364
- FY2020 - 65,856,536

Cypark future recurring revenue (Estimation), factoring in their On-Going Projects once completed (Revenue in MYR)
- FY2021 - 161 millions +
59+(10/12*8)+(75/12*8)+(80/12*8) + NEM
- FY2022 - 265 millions +
59+10+75+80+(50/12*10) + NEM

Cypark expects to complete all three projects (LSS 1 & 2 and WTE) by the targeted COD 31 December 2020. For FYE2021, i have multiply by 8 months instead of 10 months (Financial ends at Oct) to have a more conservative forecast.

From their latest QR, Cypark owns approximately 47 MWdc of solar plants In 2020. This capacity is expected to increase to approximately 200 MWdc by early 2021. With only 47 MWdc, the sales of energy already contributing about 65 millions revenue annually. 200 MWdc definitely will contribute positively to Cypark revenue.



5) Dividend

Cypark dividend policy is to distribute not less than 25% of its net profit to the shareholders, provided that such payout would not be detrimental to the operating cash flow as well as business development plans.



6) Cash Flow

According to AR2019, the remaining maturities of the borrowings are as follows:
- 184.8 million - On demand or within 1 year
- 53.2 million - More than 1 year and less than 2 years
- 220.2 million - More than 2 years and less than 5 years
- 715 million - 5 years or more
The reason of huge borrowing is due to building new power plants where large upfront capital investment are required.

Cypark has issued RM550 million Sukuk in FY2019. The RM550 million Sukuk is backed by the projects’ anticipated long-term recurring income from selling energy to TNB for the next 21 years. During 4th Sept 2020, Cypark has issued New RM97.25 million Sukuk ( upto RM500 million )

Generally, Sukuk has a tenure of up to 22 years commencing from the date of the first issuance. On top of that, Sukuk has a fixed profit payments which allows Cypark to determine it at a lower profit rate and enjoy the profit payment savings in the event of an increase in profit rate in the future. As long as Cypark is able to secure more projects in the coming future, logically the recurring income from selling energy to TNB for the next 21 years will also increase.

In the current scenario, it is expected to have more cash outflow than cash inflow due to the Company’s capital investment in the projects and the cash inflow can only be noticed clearly upon the commencement of the commercial operation date (“COD”) of the projects. The Company is expecting a significant amount of revenue and cash inflow to be generated in FY2021 from the completion of LSS 1 & 2 and WTE Plant.

However, Cypark is also expecting a significant cash outflow in year 2021 and 2022 due to capital investment of LSS 4 project and LSS 5 project.



7) Debt Collection (trade receivables)

Cypark has significant amount of trade receivables that is past due for more than 90 days. In AGM2020, Cypark mentioned the outstanding amount is mainly due by Gov agencies. The changes of Gov had impacted longer time in the processing of Cypark’s outstanding trade receivables and this is common whenever changes of administration happen.



DISCLAIMER:
All the information mentioned herein is solely for the purpose of education and references only.

REFERENCE:
- Cypark Annual Report 2019 , 2018, 2017
- Cypark latest Quarterly Report
- Cypark AGM 2020
- TNB Annual Report 2019
- http://ir.chartnexus.com/cypark/docs/agms/Summary%20of%20Key%20Matters%20Discussed%20at%20the%20Postponed%2015th%20AGM%20held%20on%2018%20June%202020.pdf
- https://www.nst.com.my/news/nation/2019/09/518408/malaysia-needs-rm33bil-investment-hit-renewable-energy-target
- https://www.st.gov.my/contents/2020/Copy%20of%20LSS%20Progress%20By%20Region%20(Q1).pdf
- https://www.power-technology.com/comment/malaysia-needs-us8-billion-investment-to-achieve-20-renewable-energy-target-by-2025/
- https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/govt-targets-six-wastetoenergy-plants-2021
- https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/better-earnings-visibility-prospects-cypark
- https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/cypark-sees-doubledigit-revenue-growth
- https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/tnb-awards-three-lss3-projects-total-capacity-29088-mwac
- https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/cypark-reorganises-loans-address-debtcash-flow-mismatch
Show more
Choonjye Lim
慢慢爬起来了。。。gogogo
Like · 5 days · translate
Bruce Lee
恭喜那些成功抄底的,现在已经起了
Like · 5 days · translate
Star Lucky
怎么今天什么股都上了,我还準備加碼还没加的就全部起了
1 Like · 5 days · translate
政霖吴
mco加上darurat,疫情能被控制了,政治最少稳定到8月了,因为darurat下是不能大选,国会也不能开。时机对了就涨了
2 Like · 5 days · translate
Ling Ling
今天来一个close在1.25 就美了
Like · 5 days · translate
Jackson
不急啦,有1.23都不错了吧!
2 Like · 5 days · translate
政霖吴
额外消息哈哈哈,大马下星期要和中国疫苗sinovec方签contract了,预计能供应20%的人口。
4 Like · 5 days · translate
Ling Ling
对哪一个股有影响?哈哈
Like · 5 days · translate
政霖吴
新闻是讲中国的疫苗会在通过pharmaniaga购买,不过pharma的股价好像有点高了,我不太敢进 哈哈哈
1 Like · 5 days · translate
Fong Jun Jie
终于青色收市了,今晚吃饭可以加蛋了 哈哈哈
1 Like · 5 days · translate
Jason Yzs
做么那个蟑螂强没有出来发言的???
Like · 5 days · translate
Nick Soo
小强被人举报了。 哈哈哈。。。
1 Like · 5 days · translate
Jackson
mmsv 0.67留意一段时间!
没有果断买入,现在看了就真的心痛了!

这是RE和 5G后,物色Ind 4.0的股。哎
Like · 5 days · translate
Echo echo
蟑螂强犯了什么罪?怎么不见了?
Like · 5 days · translate
政霖吴
那个小强跑路了咯,之前在吹水站讲mco2.0的话给每个人200块,现在吹水站的人都在找他。哈哈哈
4 Like · 5 days · translate
Echo echo
他当自己股神,说散户真可怜
Like · 5 days · translate
Peter Tham
黄金交叉了,不错。。。。。
1 Like · 4 days · translate
小弟路过问题最多
蟑螂英年早逝, 还有。哎
1 Like · 4 days · translate
Tay Tze Sen
cypark...看跌,建筑业停工了
Like · 4 days · translate
lit Li
跌就收票咯,反正迟早都会开工的
Like · 4 days · translate
YinG
有黄金交叉料咩?不是daily图是吗
Like · 4 days · translate
Roy Kah
TayTzeSen建筑业停工,全国吗?还是MCO 的州而已呢?
Like · 4 days · translate
Tay Tze Sen
MCO 州而已。。。。。
Like · 4 days · translate
Bruce Lee
Tay,建筑业是被允许可以在mco地区继续营运的。而且cypark的主要工程也不在mco那5州3直辖区里。
1 Like · 4 days · translate
fan chaowang
建筑业并没有停工。
刚刚下午公布的 好像是三个情况下可以照样运营。
1) 基础建设
2)维修与维护
3)有在工地提供宿舍的建筑公司
基本上= 都可以正常开工
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2 Like · 4 days · translate
Roy Kah
cypark目前大工程
1. lss2 -
kedah - sikh
kelantan - danau tok uban

2. WTE
negeri sembilan - ladang tanah merah

3. lss3
terengganu - marang
Show more
2 Like · 4 days · translate
Roy Kah
Tay Tze Sen 你又说cypark...看跌,建筑业停工了,那有啊
1 Like · 4 days · translate
fan chaowang
roy,应该是下午的新闻。我在fb 上也是看到一些报社说建筑停工,但那个是防长公布sop前,过后的sop证实了 建筑照常。 我很多kl地区朋友都已经拿到permit了
Like · 4 days · translate
Roy Kah
fan chaowang, 刚才写错,没写到Tay Tze Sen的名字
Like · 4 days · translate
fan chaowang
没事没事,互相交流学习。
Like · 4 days · translate
Tay Tze Sen
建筑业不是那么的简单的,cypark 的工地没停工,不过supplier的原料可能被影响,导致工程多多少少进度被影响。
Like · 4 days · translate
Roy Kah
那希望supplier的原料尽量不被影响咯!
Like · 4 days · translate
fan chaowang
tay,我本身也是和建筑业的人士有接触的。像你说的那样多多少少mco会影响到的 包括原料啊 开工啊 进度多多少少会被影响。但应该不会太明显
Like · 4 days · translate
Ph Kho
非常时期用非常時期的看法股票是用錢来推世界各地疫情更嚴重股市一直涨为什么?因为錢多遊资多股市早己和實值經济被离,。
Like · 4 days · translate
Jackson
这主要是欧洲,美国,英日都一直在量化宽松。全球资金充裕,股市也就兴旺。流入我国的还算是少的了。
1 Like · 4 days · translate
Peter Tham
今天是Cypark很好的一天。。。。
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Jackson
小强不懂还会喊爹吗?今天挑战1.30吧!1.25 争夺战!哈哈
5 Like · 4 days · translate
Phildes Hom
today back to 1.30..... ...... .....
5 Like · 4 days · translate
Ranger
cypark加碼成功!继续飛翔!
4 Like · 4 days · translate
Jackson
Ranger 今天加码哦!我还在等上面卖压下来,等底下买的卖票哦!换一批股东就有机会上1.30了!哈哈
1 Like · 4 days · translate
lit Li
Cypark gogogogo
1 Like · 4 days · translate
Jackson
就像你们说的1月20拜登上位了!LSs4也要来了,进来parking的资金也越来越多了!不涨不行啊……哈哈
4 Like · 4 days · translate
Ling Ling
看来今天真的是1.3 了,哈哈
1 Like · 4 days · translate
lit Li
Politic stable ,few project earning start record,fly Cypark now is ur turn to fly!!!!!
2 Like · 4 days · translate
Ranger
对啊Jackson,很高興跟上一次一樣在1.19加码就马上上了。如果這一輪上去有突破1.43我会继续持有
3 Like · 4 days · translate
Choonjye Lim
gogogo...1.45
1 Like · 4 days · translate
刘敬宝
今天绝对是加码的好时机,反转信号出现了,1.3一下都是值得的
1 Like · 4 days · translate
Eng Jooi Pin
Private placement 和 ESOS 会影响 EPS
Like · 4 days · translate
Eng Jooi Pin
@Fork
可以分享吗?
Like · 4 days · translate
Eng Jooi Pin
Cypark每次拿到一大工程都会做私下配售,酱会影响EPS。还有就是公司也做了很多次ESOS,也会影响到我们小股东。
1 Like · 4 days · translate
Y Jimmy
@Eng,你说得对,这公司管理层诚信有问题,多次利益输送。几次低价私配,上一批ESSOS到不到行权价,全部取消。2020年3月,股东被逼仓砍了一堆,立马低价位发ESSOS给回自己。然后套利一部分,维持仓位安全。
1 Like · 4 days · translate
lit Li
政局开始稳定之前的project开始进帐了,我加码了
1 Like · 4 days · translate
Stephanie Ng
观察一段时间了今天入场买了点 ^_^
1 Like · 4 days · translate
Ranger
我手癢今天又再加了一點
Like · 4 days · translate
Ivan Koh
cypark的管理层的确怪怪的。要不然这个股估计飞天了,业绩那么好。
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Eng Jooi Pin
管理层很重要,不知有谁可以分享?
Like · 4 days · translate
Jackson
是的,管理层很重要。谁可以分享分享啊!
Like · 4 days · translate
Smile Book
管理层一直esos,eps都被一直稀化,股价当然不会起,cypark现金流又不美。再生能源行业通常是需要准备大笔资金,然后才固定期限慢慢跟客户拿回。
可是你看看d&o,也是一直esos,电子车主题趋势下,d&o就大飞。
主要是太阳能主题炒完了,投资者对cypark较没信心,就先离场咯。
1 Like · 4 days · translate
Jackson
前人种树,后人乘凉!
D&O要跌了吗?
Cypark什么价位才合理呢?
Like · 4 days · translate
Jason Yzs
基本上1.4 以下都算合理吧!
1 Like · 3 days · translate
Choonjye Lim
nta 2. 现在是折价啦。。。
1 Like · 3 days · translate
Choonjye Lim
要上车就快点啦。。。。
Like · 3 days · translate
lit Li
Looks like uptrend is starting !!!!!!!
3 Like · 3 days · translate
Peter Tham
一间刚上市不到3个月的能源公司,已经被炒到转地球3圈了。但是Cypark一直在原地踏步。不要紧,我等你。。。一定会等到你的。。。
4 Like · 3 days · translate
Ken Law
昨天与今天加了一万股。
2 Like · 3 days · translate
M L
choonjye nta 2是因为拿了sukuk的关系吧
Like · 3 days · translate
Jackson
还是像我一样,容易被骗。
头脑简单的想一想:Sukuk借来的钱是asset吗?就会知道cypark的solar farm值得多少钱了?

银行借钱给cypark,应该也会风险评估吧?cypark 借钱来建solar farm,后卖电盈利分一些给银行和sukuk投资者。这不是一本万利的生意吗?

有钱做工程,工程建设有盈利。将来卖电也有盈利。这样的生意模式不好吗?我个人认为cypark已经度过前人种树(缺钱不断PP或Esos的日子)。现在可以获得sukuk的融资,也无需再一直PP了。除非将来获得更多招标,但是再PP或Esos的机率比较低了吧?它们应该会有更多的sukuk吧!

cypark目前是在成长初期,我也很想看到CF转正。但是我想看到CF转正,应该是成长中期了!什么阶段都适合投资,只是买入的价格是多少钱罢了?

不中听不要shoot我。吹水罢了,网络世界不要相信太多!哈哈
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7 Like · 3 days · translate
Peter Tham
jackson,不要谦虚,你分享的是事实,我也是长了新知识。
谦虚的是cypark. 它的邻居今天飞上天了,它还在那里 ”你先来,你先来“。。。。
3 Like · 3 days · translate
M L
还会有新的esos出现?
Like · 3 days · translate
Roy Kah
有了sukuk,不需要再有esos了!
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Echo echo
有了sukuk 还是会有esos的。
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Roy Kah
Echo echo 你有内幕咯,你又知道有了sukuk 还是会有esos的。
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Choonjye Lim
resistance 是1.35 吗
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Echo echo
Sukuk 是银行借钱给公司,Esos 是公司给员工福利买比市价便宜的股票,esos 对员工好却有损我们股东利益。
如果老板一直想打赏员工,会一直发esos. 老板也有份esos 的,所以如果这公司习惯给esos 就会一直有。。。
Like · 3 days · translate
Jackson
Esos确实还会有可能再有!不是为了要筹资了!主要是bonus员工。这个就不好判断几时再有了。我个人认为短期内不会有啦!一两年内,我们还是关注业绩吧!
Like · 3 days · translate
Hanson
其实不要觉得ESOS很恐怖
公司发ESOS自然就不会提升年终花红
可能花红奖励金变成以ESOS来代替
这样公司就不必付出更多的现金流
凡是都要往好的方面想吧!

不要一直钻牛角尖.....
ESOS未必是坏事!
员工一旦购买了ESOS
就会变成了小小小股东
可能往后看到公司业绩上升
员工也会从市场加码买入股份
这样对cypark也是很好的啊!

那么往后就有更多的新股东
逐步持有cypark股票了
不然你的股票要卖给谁接?
所以大家不要一直担心啊!
看开一点啦……
这样晚上才会睡个好觉啊!

共勉之!大家加油!
Cypark加油!
没有蟑螂的日子,加油!
细菌和一切肮肮脏脏都离我们而去!
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11 Like · 3 days · translate
刘敬宝
相信明天开市就会破1.32阻力了。
5 Like · 3 days · translate
政霖吴
突破的话并站稳的话就应该朝1.43前进了
6 Like · 3 days · translate
Vk Klse
接下来再破1.43以上收市就回复上涨趋势了
4 Like · 2 days · translate
Echo echo
每个信信满满,加油加油
Like · 2 days · translate
Peter Tham
Cypark 真的是会玩。玩出W底形态。跟你致敬!
2 Like · 2 days · translate
Haw Lin Yeng
大家来我的Tel gram 谈,CYPARK 5184
Like · 2 days · translate
Bruce Lee
Cypark的W shape真的好美,希望这次能够突破阻力,那就更美了。
1 Like · 2 days · translate
Peter Tham
肯定美。接近完美的W形态。。。
2 Like · 2 days · translate
Jackson
如果突破W,就要上1.8以上了吧!哈哈
2 Like · 2 days · translate
Ranger
如果每個像這裡的人hold着手中的票不放,在阻力線幫忙推一把。相信cypark就会继续突破了。
1 Like · 2 days · translate
肚腩神
RANGER就是典型可爱人物,不放票,庄家手不够票就不会推,你要给庄家收够了他才帮你推的啊 小可爱
2 Like · 2 days · translate
肚腩神
陈强强在FACEBOOK忙着MCO的事情出不来了
2 Like · 2 days · translate
Fong Jun Jie
请教一下w图是会怎样.. 小弟才疏学浅搞不懂
Like · 2 days · translate
陈强强
回光返照的趋势,我继续看跌!明天应该会跌到rm1.20
Like · 2 days · translate
小弟路过问题最多
垃圾蟑螂又吃饱回来了。。又来toxic人家的股了
1 Like · 2 days · translate
Peter Tham
技术图说今天有冲上云霄的趋势。
俗语,今天再冲
3 Like · 2 days · translate
Calvin
你这个蟑螂,快派钱啦。懦夫讲了做不到
1 Like · 2 days · translate
Echo echo
没有信用的蟑螂小强,连蟑螂都不如,还有嘴脸出来混
2 Like · 2 days · translate
Echo echo
跌到l.20是大大的好事,子弹准备了
1 Like · 2 days · translate
Fong Jun Jie
星期五我是不期望他冲啦,但求站稳就好了~ 期待星期一的冲刺 哇哈哈
Like · 2 days · translate
Nick Soo
在等1.21 to 1.25 才进
Like · 2 days · translate
Jackson
Bruce 6家,你中几家啊?哈哈
Like · 1 day · translate
Bruce Lee
cypark和revenue,2家。
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